Ice Storm and Winter Weather in Texas, January 30 to 31, 2023

Name: Ice Storm and Winter Weather in Texas, January 30 to 31, 2023
Start: 2023-01-30T00:00
End: 2023-01-31T23:59
Location: Texas

January 30 to 31, 2023 · NWS LUB · 3 events in 3 counties and zones

Several consecutive days of wintry precipitation occurred from late January through early February. Temperatures tumbled 30-40 degrees behind an arctic cold front from the 28th into the 29th.

Where it happened

Every event with a place to put it; 3 filed by county or forecast zone are drawn at its center, in a lighter ring. Tap one for its entry below.

Tornadoes
Tropical storms and surge
Floods
Wind
Hail
Winter weather
Heat and drought
Cold
Fire, smoke and dust
Marine and coastal
Other

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The toll

Deaths: 4
Injuries: 0
Property damage: None recorded
Crop damage: None recorded
Events: 3

Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.

What happened

The episode as NWS LUB wrote it up.

Several consecutive days of wintry precipitation occurred from late January through early February. Temperatures tumbled 30-40 degrees behind an arctic cold front from the 28th into the 29th. Even colder air settled into the region on the night of the 29th and morning of the 30th, as temperatures dipped into the teens over all of the South and Rolling Plains, and single digits in the Texas Panhandle. The bitter cold was accompanied by enough moistening to result in the development of areas of light freezing drizzle, light sleet, and light snow. Though light, the wintry precipitation did create some travel difficulties as it quickly stuck to the sub-freezing roadways. The light drizzle, sleet, and snow diminished toward midday on the 30th. Pockets of light freezing drizzle and snow flurries redeveloped over parts of the region for the second morning in a row on the 31st. The light frozen precipitation again created problems on area roadways, including in and around Lubbock. Unfortunately, there were four fatalities and two injuries from vehicle wrecks that hit icy spots on the roadway. One fatality and injury occurred on US Highway 62/82 near Wolfforth where a vehicle hit a slick patch on an overpass and rolled over. Three additional fatalities and one injury occurred along US Highway 380 west of Brownfield (Terry County) as a vehicle rolled over into a ditch. The South Plains region experienced another lull in the precipitation on the afternoon and evening of the 31st. Periodic spurts of freezing rain and sleet continued through the evening of the first and into the early morning on the second as temperatures lingered a few degrees below freezing. A final band of precipitation exited the region to the east by late morning on the second as temperatures finally rebounded above freezing across the region. Many locations across the South Plains and Rolling Plains had experienced sub-freezing temperatures continuously from early on the 29th until mid-morning on the second. Ice accumulation totals were highest in the Rolling Plains, where a tenth to quarter inch was common. This event continues into February.

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Lubbock, TX wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jan 29, 10:29 PM CST, 1 hour 31 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Jan 29, 10:29 PM CST, 1 hour 31 minutes before

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
1029 PM CST Sun Jan 29 2023

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 222 PM CST Sun Jan 29 2023

Stratus has been slow to dissipate early this afternoon but thinning
is becoming evident as of 1 pm. Expect this thinning/dissipating
trend to pick up this afternoon with at least partly sunny skies
area wide late this afternoon. A reinforcing cold front will drop
into the forecast area tonight bringing another round of cold air
advection to the forecast area. This will allow temperatures to drop
into the teens and lower 20s area wide by Monday morning. As this
happens isentropic ascent will increase over the forecast area
leading to the redevelopment of widespread low stratus. However,
lift within the saturated lower atmosphere should be sufficient for
some light precipitation development across the southern South
Plains into the Rolling Plains and southeastern Texas Panhandle
mainly in the form of freezing drizzle. The depth of cold air keeps
precipitation type in question as some of the colder spots may be
able to switch over to sleet rather than freezing drizzle. However,
where freezing drizzle occurs surface temperatures will be conducive
to accumulation and therefore a light glaze may develop on
sidewalks, roadways, and elevated surfaces Monday morning. Due to
this potential, have issued a Winter Weather Advisory from 5 am
until noon to account for potentially hazardous road conditions.
This advisory may need to be expanded farther west if newer guidance
shows better lift within this region tonight. The other big question
will be surface dewpoint depressions but with the prolonged nature
of lift would expect this dry air to be overcome eventually. Any
precipitation will come to an end late Monday morning but sky cover
will hang around through the day. The combination of this cloud
cover and cold air advection means temperatures will once again be
chilly with most locations struggling to warm above the freezing
mark. /WI

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday night through next Saturday)
Issued at 222 PM CST Sun Jan 29 2023

While wintry precip continues to look decent for tomorrow night
through Thursday, there is still great uncertainty in precip mode,
timing of precip, and accumulation amounts. Initially precip will be
fairly light starting around sunrise Tuesday morning as lift will be
from isentropic upglide while a surface to 1200 ft AGL dry layer is
present. Precip mode will likely be in the form of light freezing
rain and/or sleet as a warm nose will be present. The depth of the
warm nose will ultimately determine the final mode. A lull in precip
is expected late Tuesday afternoon through late Tuesday
evening/early Wednesday morning as weak shortwave ridging moves
overhead and the best lift remains just to the south of the FA. The
upper low will begin pushing eastward from the Baja Peninsula
Tuesday evening and make its way to northern Sonora by late
Wednesday afternoon. Models continue to struggle with the evolution
of the upper low as it approaches Chihuahua/southern New Mexico. The
ECMWF keeps the low closed until around midnight Wednesday night
before evolving to an open wave trough. The GFS opens the low by 00Z
Thursday and has the system further south than the ECMWF. The
position of the low/trough will be one of the deciding factors in
precip intensity/accumulation. The further south solution would keep
upper level diffluence mostly to the south of the FA until the axis
of the upper trough approaches eastern New Mexico. The ECMWF, which
has a further north solution, would bring lift into the region much
sooner. The next issue is precip mode. Currently a full bag of mixed
treats is possible with the current setup with the more dominate
modes being freezing rain followed by sleet. As temps are expected
to remain below freezing from tomorrow night through mid/late
Wednesday morning, forecasted ice accumulations are currently
between one hundredth of an inch to one quarter inch with the highs
amounts being across the southern Rolling Plains where a Winter
Storm Watch is in effect for this area starting 12Z Tuesday. Highs
for Wednesday are currently forecasted to be in the mid/upper 30s to
near 50 and would result in a transition to liquid rain area wide.
A mix of rain/snow will be possible Wednesday night into early
Thursday afternoon as the axis of the upper trough moves overhead.

Quieter weather will ensue by late week after the upcoming storm
system pushes to our east and upper ridging takes hold over the
central CONUS. This will allow highs to warm into the 50s and
possible 60s by the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1024 PM CST Sun Jan 29 2023

Widespread MVFR CIGs recently overtook LBB and will largely remain
intact through Monday evening. Slim chance these temporarily fall
to IFR at LBB early Monday morning concurrent with a threat for
very light FZDZ and/or IP. However, wintry accumulations are
appearing less likely at LBB with the latest round of models given
dry air beneath the stratus, so an AWW may be unnecessary if this
theme continues. Else, expect generally light NE winds veering
E-SE by late day.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Weather Advisory from 5 AM to noon CST Monday for
TXZ024>026-030>032-034>038-040>044.

Winter Storm Watch from Tuesday morning through Wednesday
morning for TXZ037-038-042>044.

&&

SHORT TERM...58
LONG TERM....51
AVIATION...93

Hazardous weather outlook, Jan 29, 7:53 PM CST, 4 hours 7 minutes before

Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
753 PM CST Sun Jan 29 2023

TXZ021>044-310200-
Parmer-Castro-Swisher-Briscoe-Hall-Childress-Bailey-Lamb-Hale-Floyd-
Motley-Cottle-Cochran-Hockley-Lubbock-Crosby-Dickens-King-Yoakum-
Terry-Lynn-Garza-Kent-Stonewall-
753 PM CST Sun Jan 29 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the South Plains, Rolling
Plains, and the far Southern Texas Panhandle.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Some light ice accumulations will be possible on roadways and
sidewalks across portions of the South Plains, Rolling Plains, and
southeastern Texas Panhandle late tonight into Monday morning. A
Winter Weather Advisory is in effect for this area from 5 am until
noon Monday.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

A mix of wintry precipitation is possible across portions of the
region Monday through Thursday with the potential for light ice
accumulations, particularly for the southern Rolling Plains. This
may lead to hazardous road conditions, especially for morning
commutes. A Winter Storm Watch is currently in effect for the
southern Rolling Plains from 6AM Tuesday through 9AM Wednesday.

The radar

The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.

Open the radar archive at this moment

Event by event

2 winter weather, 1 ice storm. Local standard time, as filed.

Ice Storm, Stonewall

When: January 30, 12:00 AM CST to January 31, 11:59 PM CST
Where: Stonewall forecast zone
Reported by: COOP Observer
Coordinates: 33.179, -100.253 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)

Winter Weather, Lubbock

When: January 31, 4:00 AM CST to 12:00 PM CST
Where: Lubbock forecast zone
Deaths: 0 direct, 1 indirect
Reported by: Law Enforcement
Coordinates: 33.610, -101.820 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)

Winter Weather, Terry

When: January 31, 4:00 AM CST to 12:00 PM CST
Where: Terry forecast zone
Deaths: 0 direct, 3 indirect
Reported by: Law Enforcement
Coordinates: 33.174, -102.335 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)

The people who died

As the offices recorded each death: direct deaths were caused by the weather itself, indirect ones by something it set in motion.

Event	Date	Age	Sex	Where	Kind
Winter Weather, Lubbock	2023-01-31	18	Male	Vehicle/Towed Trailer	Indirect
Winter Weather, Terry	2023-01-31	34	Male	Vehicle/Towed Trailer	Indirect
Winter Weather, Terry	2023-01-31	46	Male	Vehicle/Towed Trailer	Indirect
Winter Weather, Terry	2023-01-31	40	Male	Vehicle/Towed Trailer	Indirect

What these are

Ice Storm: Freezing rain accumulating a quarter inch or more of ice, or less where it caused significant damage.
Winter Weather: Snow, sleet or freezing rain below warning levels that still caused disruption, damage or casualties.

After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.

The same day elsewhere

Every storm in Texas in 2023 Every state in 2023 This day in weather history Warnings in Texas, January 2023

Sources

NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1070069, 1070068, 1070217.