High Wind in Nevada, November 7, 2023

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
207 AM PST Tue Nov 7 2023

.SYNOPSIS...Gusty winds and cooler temperatures will be the most
notable effects with a system moving through the region today
through Wednesday. But there is potential for light precipitation,
including high-elevation snow, in Inyo County and southern Nevada.
Dry conditions and a warming trend will return the second half of
the week.

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.SHORT TERM...Through Wednesday night.

Strong winds mainly 40 to 60 mph are continuing at this hour within
Kyle Canyon and exposed higher slopes of the Spring Mountain. Winds
in Red Rock Canyon have peaked between 40 to 45 mph. Cross sections
through Kyle Canyon and Red Rock Canyon support potential downslope
winds continuing through about 4 am. After 4 am, critical layer
starts to weaken and support for downslope winds begins to diminish.
However, gusty winds from the southwest will persist across the
Mojave Desert/northwest Arizona today under the belt of stronger
winds aloft preceding the approaching trough. A cold front across
the Great Basin will steadily shift southeast today with frontal
passage in southern Nevada this evening. The front then clears
southeast California and northwest Arizona by daybreak Wednesday.
This will set the stage for a windy Wednesday within the Lake Mead
NRA and lower Colorado River Valley. No change needed to the
existing wind advisory and will let day shift determine the need for
wind headlines Wednesday.

Light rain falling around Fresno with radar showing the area of
precipitation moving into the southern Sierra west of Bishop.
Southern Sierra will intercept the brunt of the precipitation with
HRRR showing narrow banding of showers moving east across central
Nevada this morning. An additional narrow band is slated to develop
from Death Valley NP northeast into Lincoln County tonight. This
could bring some light snow or flurries as far south as the Spring
Mountains this evening. Snow levels drop to 6 kft MSL in northern
Lincoln County and 6-7 kft in the Spring Mountains.

Return to more Fall-like temperatures today and Wednesday.

.LONG TERM...Thursday through Monday.

A progressive pattern will dominate the longer term period keeping
temperatures near to slightly below normal with periods of mid and
high clouds mixed in.  Thursday will start out in between weather
systems with a shortwave ridge building in, followed by a weak
shortwave which zips through Friday into Saturday, followed by
another shortwave ridge on Sunday. Despite the parade of weather
features, sensible weather impacts will be minimal through the
weekend.

Bigger changes continue to be suggested by extended guidance next
week as deeper troughing begins to set up along the West Coast. A
majority of ensemble members from the various major models continue
to support a wetter storm system moving through sometime during the
week of Nov 13th-18th, and given anomalously cool heights, some
significant Sierra snows may be on the way as well. Stay tuned.

&&

.AVIATION...For Harry Reid...Gusty southwesterly winds persist
throughout the day, increasing in the late morning. Gusts will peak
in the afternoon between 24 and 28 knots. There is some potential
for turbulence west of the terminal due to flow off of the Spring
Mountains. After sunset, winds remain out of the southwest but
become less gusty with sustained wind speeds just over 10 knots.
Winds shift to the north  and become gusty early Wednesday morning
with the passage of a cold front. Cloud cover at or above 25kft
falls to around 10kft with the frontal passage.

For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast
California...Gusty westerly to southwesterly winds are expected
across much of the forecast area today. In the Las Vegas Valley and
KDAG, gusts peak between 24 and 28 knots. Weaker winds out of the
west to southwest are expected in the Colorado River Valley. Winds
have become gusty out of the north at KBIH with the passage of a
cold front. The front should cause winds to turn to the north and
bring continued gusty winds to the Las Vegas Valley and Colorado
River Valley tonight, and to KDAG on Wednesday. Overall cloud
heights decrease with the frontal passage.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report
any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating
procedures.
&&

SHORT TERM...Pierce
LONG TERM...Outler
AVIATION...Meltzer

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