Drought in Alabama, November 7 to 28, 2023

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
951 PM EST Mon Nov 6 2023

...New UPDATE...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 950 PM EST Mon Nov 6 2023

Only minor updates to first and second period forecast
temperature and sky cover are forthcoming this evening, based on
latest trends.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Through Tuesday)
Issued at 221 PM EST Mon Nov 6 2023

Warmer temperatures are expected overnight as a few bands of
upper level clouds move overhead and moistening conditions,
especially across the Panhandle, lead to low temperature about 5
to 10 degrees warmer than this morning. The warming trend will
continue into Tuesday as skies clear out and surface high pressure
translates east of the region. The combination of a weak
seabreeze and southerly flow across a good portion of the area
will allow high temperatures to climb solidly into the lower 80s.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tuesday night through Wednesday night)
Issued at 221 PM EST Mon Nov 6 2023

Deep-layer ridging will take hold over the region at the start of
the term. Temperatures will be in the low 80s for the highs, and
low 50s for the morning lows. Rain chances are NIL due to the high
pressure but, it won't be completely dry. Moisture will have the
opportunity to advect in from the Gulf Tuesday night, along with
calm winds and clear skies will allow for fog (possibly dense) to
develop throughout the region early Wednesday morning.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Sunday)
Issued at 221 PM EST Mon Nov 6 2023

High pressure dominates for the start of the long term, but
change is on the horizon. A cold front will approach the Tri-State
region from the northwest by Friday, bringing our best chance for
measurable rain. Unfortunately, as the front approaches, we lose
a lot of the forcing mechanisms, decreasing the rainfall chances
and amounts. PoPs for Friday into Saturday range around 30 percent
in Southeast Alabama, and less for areas to the east and
southeast. Parts of Alabama may see up to a third of an inch.
Following the frontal passage on Friday, cold air advection will
increase as the surface high and upper level ridging builds.
Temperatures for the end of the long term will begin a lowering
trend to the lower 70s for the afternoon highs, while morning lows
will return to the upper 40s and low 50s (south of I-10).

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 621 PM EST Mon Nov 6 2023

VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the TAF period.
Light and variable winds become a bit more westerly as the day
wears on tomorrow. A weak sea breeze was noted at KECP this
afternoon and anticipate the same thing again Tuesday. While there
is a low probability of fog development for KECP and KVLD, did
include a TEMPO group for KVLD, where confidence is a bit higher,
tonight to bring attention to the possibility of fog formation.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 950 PM EST Mon Nov 6 2023

A high pressure center will meander around the northeast Gulf
through Thursday morning, setting the stage for only light and
gentle breezes. High pressure will pull away to the east on
Friday. A weakening cold front may reach the northeast Gulf next
weekend, followed by high pressure bridging in from the north.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 221 PM EST Mon Nov 6 2023

A gradual moistening trend is expected through the remainder of
the week as flow becomes southwesterly. However, with light winds
through at least Wednesday, dispersions will be on the lower side,
especially along the coastal communities. Dry conditions will
remain but there is a low chance for a wetting rain by the weekend
across southeast Alabama and the western portions of the Florida
Panhandle. With moistening conditions, fog potential will increase
each night beginning late on Tuesday. Areas of fog are possible.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 950 PM EST Mon Nov 6 2023

No flooding is expected for the next 7 days.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   52  82  54  81 /   0   0   0   0
Panama City   57  79  57  77 /   0   0   0   0
Dothan        51  83  51  81 /   0   0   0   0
Albany        49  82  51  82 /   0   0   0   0
Valdosta      50  82  52  83 /   0   0   0   0
Cross City    48  83  51  83 /   0   0   0   0
Apalachicola  58  76  58  74 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&

NEAR TERM...Dobbs
SHORT TERM...Montgomery
LONG TERM....Montgomery
AVIATION...Reese
MARINE...Haner
FIRE WEATHER...Dobbs
HYDROLOGY...Haner