Severe drought impacted Adair County, MO beginning on November 7th and continuing through the end of the month.
Every event with a place to put it; 1 filed by county or forecast zone are drawn at its center, in a lighter ring. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS EAX wrote it up.
Severe drought impacted Adair County, MO beginning on November 7th and continuing through the end of the month.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Kansas City, MO wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Nov 6, 11:16 PM CST, 44 minutes earlier.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO 1116 PM CST Mon Nov 6 2023 .Discussion... Issued at 309 PM CST MON NOV 6 2023 Key Messages: - Warm, Cloudy Next Few Days - Light Rain/Sprinkles Wednesday - Cooler End of Week Discussion: Middle and upper-level flow is generally zonal yet brisk, with several short-wave perturbations upstream of the region. Deeper surface cyclone associated with short-wave north of the area has shifted into the Northern Great Lakes Region and our area is finally out of the stronger pressure gradient that it brought with it. This did start to drag a cold front toward the area and wound up dragging just a bit further south than originally progged which helped to increase cloud cover across the area, even though the temperature gradient has not been overly strong. However through this afternoon weak H5 disturbance over the Rockies has prompted weak surface pressure falls which has helped to start southwesterly flow over the Plains of Kansas and Oklahoma. The surface flow this afternoon and evening will remain on the weaker side but has been enough to stall the boundary just north of the Missouri River Valley and should hold this in place here. For the rest of the of the evening, expecting passing cloud cover to continue. Into the overnight hours, patchy fog may be possible in some spots with weaker winds, as there may be pockets of low-level saturation. However this may be limited by depth of boundary layer moisture, as a handful of model soundings at points across the forecast area suggest lower RH values at 900mb and above. Other protected areas may see a reduction in visibility overnight. Tuesday, H5 trough over the western CONUS develops a positive tilt with jet streak ejecting toward the Intermountain West region. This will provide a stronger shot of dCVA into the Front Range with increasing strength of surface pressure falls beginning lee cyclogenesis. This is expected to enhance southwesterly flow from the Southern Plains into the lower Missouri River Valley. This strengthens the WAA regime and forces the stalled boundary back northward. Recent guidance has been backing surface to 900mb winds more than previous runs, which is allowing a pocket of moisture to move into the region late Tuesday morning through afternoon. This is expected to result in a lower stratus deck by the afternoon limiting insolation. Therefore, the lack of insolation will be working against the increasing WAA. The NBM has not shown signs of picking up a cloudier trend for Tuesday afternoon, resulting in its inner- quartile maximum temperatures to range between 71 and 78 across our area, and slightly cooler toward the Iowa border that is on the backside of the stalled boundary. The 12z HREF mean cloud field shows increasing mid-level cloud cover just prior to peak heating Tuesday afternoon. Along with surrounding offices, have trended the temperatures for Tuesday a few degrees downward that accounts for the battle between WAA and increased cloud cover. If the surface pressure falls stall and any weak subsidence occurs late Tuesday morning and provides brief clearing, temperatures could experience a decent boost but there is not an overly strong that supports signal that, thus sticking with temperatures on the lower end of the range. Wednesday, surface pressure falls continue as the cyclone begins to move eastward. There will still be the H5 vort max over the Intermountain West with another one moving well north of the area. However, as the cyclone advances, this will allow the stalled boundary to start following it east-southeastward as a cold front. Low-level flow will start to turn southwesterly but if Tuesday's lower level moisture transport is realized and a stratus deck is still in place, increased kinematic forcing and convergence along the front may result in a few light rain showers or sprinkles. The boundary layer itself may remain drier, especially if the surface flow turns southwesterly. However, if the cold front does not quickly surge southeast, there may be enough time for the boundary layer to saturate on Wednesday and thus promoting light rain potential. The NAM and NAM Nest have continued to produce QPF of a few hundredths especially for areas along the Interstate 70 corridor and northward. Deterministic ECMWF has also reintroduced light QPF for Wednesday afternoon. The GFS and most of the GEFS members remain completely dry. The NAM Nest is the only member of the 12z HREF that is producing QPF in the amongst the available CAMs. But, given the increased forcing and possible moisture transport, have added in slight chance POPs Wednesday afternoon but will keep QPF very light. Amongst ensemble members, probabilities for any measurable rain is around 30 percent, but less than 15 percent for exceeding 0.10 inches. If the moisture transport from Tuesday ends up being weaker or the cold front surges through before enough moisture can pool ahead of it, the forecast will remain dry. Any activity on Wednesday is not expected to be widespread. While there will be WAA, not seeing a signal for much instability to develop, therefore precipitation mode will be more stratiform rain than convective in nature. By Wednesday Night, the front starts to the clear the area. The GFS and ECMWF have developed an axis of heavier QPF along the front closer to the Interstate 44 corridor that continues into Thursday morning. However most of this is outside of our CWA, thus just looking at slight chances POPs in our far southeast late Wednesday into early Thursday, with QPF amounts generally less than 0.10 of inch. With the increased cloud cover, have trended temperatures downward a few degrees Wednesday. Thursday and Friday, the cold front clears the region and brings temperatures back toward more seasonable values, with most members of the NBM and other ensemble suites in the 50s across most of the area. The northern H5 vort max races ahead faster than the southern one, with a weak H5 ridge coming northward of the southern short- wave. This will take the appearance of a Rex Block pattern but with increased flow coming ashore again both features will continue to progress across the area. This will provide an AVA regime on the anticyclonic side of the jet streak toward the end of the weak that will continue to build a surface anticyclone into the region. This combined with northwesterly flow will maintain the cooler, seasonable temperatures into the weekend. For the extended forecast, divergence between longer range deterministic solutions has resulted in inconsistent output and there is also a with a larger amount of spread amongst ensemble suites. NBM came in with dry conditions for the end of the week, but with multiple short-wave and vort maxes moving through another precipitation is not completely out of the question. Given the uncertainty have left NBM starting guidance unchanged for Days 6 and 7. && .Aviation...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday Night) Issued at 1117 PM CST MON NOV 6 2023 A boundary has stalled across SE KS into SW and central MO. Moisture was pooling along this boundary and resulting in some mid-level clouds. This mid-level cloud deck will likely build lower over time and by Tuesday morning, MVFR to IFR ceilings and fog seem likely (60-70% chance) for a time tomorrow mornng to early tomorrow afternoon. By late afternoon, ceilings should rise to VFR as the boundary lifts back north. Winds will be light from the east overnight and then through the day tomorrow, as the boundary lifts northward, will become southeasterly. && .EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...NONE. MO...NONE. && Discussion...Krull Aviation...CDB
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO 435 AM CST Mon Nov 6 2023 KSZ025-057-060-102>105-MOZ001>008-011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040- 043>046-053-054-071100- Atchison KS-Miami-Linn KS-Doniphan-Leavenworth-Wyandotte-Johnson KS- Atchison MO-Nodaway-Worth-Gentry-Harrison-Mercer-Putnam-Schuyler- Holt-Andrew-De Kalb-Daviess-Grundy-Sullivan-Adair-Buchanan-Clinton- Caldwell-Livingston-Linn MO-Macon-Platte-Clay-Ray-Carroll-Chariton- Randolph-Jackson-Lafayette-Saline-Howard-Cass-Johnson MO-Pettis- Cooper-Bates-Henry- 435 AM CST Mon Nov 6 2023 This hazardous weather outlook is for northwest...north central and west central Missouri...as well as extreme eastern Kansas. .DAY ONE...Today and Tonight No hazardous weather is expected at this time. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday No hazardous weather is expected at this time. More detailed information can be accessed at... https://www.weather.gov/eax/hwo
The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
1 drought. Local standard time, as filed.
Drought conditions worsened to severe drought (D2) for the eastern half of Adair County by the November 7th US Drought Monitor, and continued through the end of the month.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Missouri in 2023Every state in 2023This day in weather historyWarnings in Missouri, November 2023
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1149432.