A weak cold front moved into the Lower Mississippi River Valley during the afternoon hours on May 16, 2023. This front combined with peak afternoon heating to produce scattered showers and thunderstorms across north Mississippi.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS MEG wrote it up.
A weak cold front moved into the Lower Mississippi River Valley during the afternoon hours on May 16, 2023. This front combined with peak afternoon heating to produce scattered showers and thunderstorms across north Mississippi. An isolated severe storm resulted in some trees down and damage in Yalobusha.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Memphis, TN wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at May 16, 11:45 AM CST, 2 hours 23 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
1245 PM CDT Tue May 16 2023
...New AVIATION...
.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 310 AM CDT Tue May 16 2023
Scattered showers and thunderstorms remain in the forecast through
Wednesday as a weak cold front moves across the Mid-South. This
front will bring drier and slightly cooler air into the region for
Thursday but rain chances will return Friday into the weekend as
the next system approaches the Mid-South.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
(Today through Monday)
Issued at 310 AM CDT Tue May 16 2023
A broad subtropical ridge extends from the Desert Southwest to
Florida, maintaining hot and humid conditions across the Mid-
South. There is a weakness in the ridge extending from a
shortwave trough over the Midwest, south through the Southern
Plains to a cut-off, upper-level cyclone near the Big Bend of TX.
A surface low is moving across southeast MO with a cold front
extending southwest across AR and into West TX and a warm front
near the TN/KY line. South of this warm front, temperatures are
generally in the upper 60s and lower 70s with dewpoints in the
mid/upper 60s. Proximity hi-res soundings indicate largely
elevated instability near 1000 J/kg with very weak effective bulk
shear. This instability has been just enough to maintain
persistent, but largely unorganized, convection over northeast MS
since late evening. A corridor of deeper moisture exists where
convection has been going overnight with precipitable water near
1.75" which is quite high for mid May.
As expected in weakly-forced scenarios, the CAMs have been
struggling with convection in recent days. This will likely be the
case again today though the cold front moving across the CWA may
provide a bit more focus than before. Strong buoyancy by peak
heating could lead to a few strong storms across the TN Valley
despite the weak deep-layer shear with storm mode being primarily
ordinary cell convection. Gusty winds and marginally severe hail
are possible as the stronger cells pulse. This activity will sag
south throughout the evening with the greatest rain chances across
north MS after 00z. Spatial uncertainty in convective coverage
will limit confidence for locally heavy rainfall though the HREF
LPMM indicates a few isolated, small pockets of 2" rainfall where
stronger cells develop.
A few storms will be possible on Wednesday across north MS as the
front sags slowly south, but drier and slightly cooler air will
settle into the region to end the week. Most of the area will be
rain-free on Thursday but isolated convection is possible by the
week's end as a shortwave trough swings across the Great Lakes and
Ohio Valley. This trough will drive another cold front through
the Mid-South Friday night or Saturday, providing another focused
potential for showers and thunderstorms. Looking at the 500 mb
ensemble clusters, most of the GEFS members are faster with the
Great Lakes trough while the EPS/GEPS are overwhelmingly slower.
Precipitation looks to be relatively short-lived with this system,
but PoPs are current spread from Friday through Saturday night
given this timing uncertainty, so expect some adjustments to this
timing as the weekend nears.
Afternoon temperatures will be in the 80s through most of the
period but are expected to drop into the mid/upper 70s behind
the weekend cold front. Overnight lows will be mainly in the 60s
through the work week, dropping into the 50s for Saturday and
Sunday.
MJ
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1240 PM CDT Tue May 16 2023
Vicinity thunderstorms and showers move into the TAF period as the
weak cold front pushes through the region. MVFR conditions can be
expected late tonight/early morning Friday but will improve to
VFR conditions by the afternoon. Northernly winds subside through
the TAF cycle but will remain between 5-10kts.
GNC
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...Flash Flood Watch through Saturday afternoon for MSZ001-007-008-
011-012-020.
TN...None.
&&
PUBLIC FORECAST...MJ
AVIATION...GNCThe national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
1 thunderstorm wind. Local standard time, as filed.
A few trees were knocked down. The roof of a large farm outbuilding collapsed.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Mississippi in 2023Every state in 2023This day in weather historyWarnings in Mississippi, May 2023
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1103472.