In the wake of a warm front passing through the coalfields of southwestern Virginia on May 16th, warm temperatures and ample sunshine led to strong thunderstorms through the course of the afternoon and evening. The areas of John Flannagan Lake and Clintwood in Dickenson County observed multiple areas of tree damage as a result of damaging wind gusts within passing storms.
Every event with a place to put it. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS RLX wrote it up.
In the wake of a warm front passing through the coalfields of southwestern Virginia on May 16th, warm temperatures and ample sunshine led to strong thunderstorms through the course of the afternoon and evening. The areas of John Flannagan Lake and Clintwood in Dickenson County observed multiple areas of tree damage as a result of damaging wind gusts within passing storms. One instance of strong winds near the town of Haysi resulted in a tree falling onto a car, killing the occupant in the vehicle. Tree damage also spilled into northern Buchanan County as storms prevailed that afternoon. After sunset, storms diminished in coverage and intensity.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Charleston, WV wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at May 16, 1:45 PM EST, 2 hours 29 minutes earlier.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Charleston WV 245 PM EDT Tue May 16 2023 .SYNOPSIS... A disturbance passes through S WV later today, bringing a round of showers/storms, some of which may be strong and produce heavy rain. Dry weather returns tonight into Friday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 1230 PM Tuesday... Key Points: * All severe hazards possible this afternoon into this evening, primarily across the southern coalfields. * Main risks: Damaging winds and locally heavy rain * Isolated instances of large hail and a couple tornadoes also possible Light to moderate precipitation along and ahead of a warm front covers a bulk of the forecast area at this hour keeping surface heating at bay. The one exception is across SW VA where partially clearing skies have allowed temperatures to rise into the mid 70s. This trend continues back toward the west across KY allowing diurnal instability to build in the partly cloudy warm sector. An approaching shortwave currently over the MO/IL border will increase H500 flow to around 50KTs yielding deep layer shear 40-50KTs this afternoon into this evening. While near surface winds are relatively unidirectional, low level hodographs do show some clockwise curvature in the lowest 1.5km with around 150m2/s2 0-1km storm relatively helicity. Forecast soundings also reveal deep and skinny CAPE profiles with warm cloud depths extending to around 10kft. All severe hazards (hail, wind, tornado, flash flooding) will be on the table with late afternoon into early evening activity, primarily across the southern coalfields. Damaging winds and heavy rain will likely be the primary threats, although a few instances of large hail and perhaps a few embedded tornadoes will also be possible. A severe thunderstorm watch has been issued through 8 PM for our southern counties. While the region has been on the drier side lately, rainfall rates of up to 2"/hr could overcome short term flash flood guidance and yield some isolated water issues, especially where any convection can train along the warm front. As the shortwave and associated cold front plow into the region overnight precipitation quickly shifts off to the east. As skies clear overnight, fog may form, especially closer to the mountains where a reinforcing cold front arrives latest heading into Wednesday morning. Despite clearing skies during the day Wednesday, skies will remain milky as a plume of suspended smoke from western Canada wildfires streams overhead. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... As of 235 PM Tuesday... As high pressure builds into the area Wednesday night, north to northeasterly breezes pushing drier air into the area should help to keep any fog at bay, despite the mostly clear skies. Lows Wednesday night should range from the upper 30s in the far north to upper 40s in the southern coalfields and SW Virginia. We can expect a mostly sunny and mostly dry Thursday, with the possible exception of a few stray showers that work into the VA or KY counties as a weak disturbance passes around the western side of the high. SE'ly breezes Thursday night will produce a bit of low-level warming and drying thanks to downsloping, so fog is once again not anticipated, and lows will be in the 50s for most lower elevations. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 1158 AM Tuesday... Key Point: * There is still some issues with the timing of a cold front crossing late week into the weekend, with showers and thunderstorms possible ahead of it. A cold front will approach the area Friday and then push east on Saturday. Expect showers and thunderstorms associated with the front to push into our far western counties Friday during the afternoon and evening hours. Models continue to have some timing issues with the cold front and this will impact when the rain actually begins and when it ends. The GFS is the fastest with the front pushing through Friday night with the Canadian being the slowing as it suggests the front will not push through until Saturday night. Because of this uncertainties, have gone with a model blend which spreads precipitation chances eastward a little faster Friday night than the previous forecast and starts to end the precipitation from the west a little faster Saturday night. Still looks like thunderstorm chances should be limited to the afternoon and evening hours Friday and Saturday. The models will hopefully converge on the frontal timing which should act to limit the time the shower and storm chances will impact the area over the weekend. Precipitation chances should finally come to an end late Sunday as high pressure takes control. A few of the long range models suggest another cold front will push south on Monday. However, the airmass should be quite dry and isolated showers may develop across the mountains and southern portions of the area both Monday and Tuesday afternoon. High pressure will then take control on Tuesday with dry weather expected. Central guidance suggests above normal afternoon temperatures with highs across the lowlands in the lower 80s and generally in the 70s across the higher elevations. The combination of clouds, rain and the cold front will act to bring down afternoon readings to near normal values Saturday and Sunday. A warming trend is then expected with highs across the lowlands reaching the low to mid 80s and highs in the 70s and low 80s across much of the higher elevations by Tuesday. Lows will generally range in the 40s and 50s through the period. && .AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 1230 PM Tuesday... Light to moderate precipitation continues at this hour along ahead ahead of a warm front. This will continue to lift slowly to the north over the next few hours before a more line of showers and thunderstorms approaches from the west late this afternoon into this evening. The main threats with these storms will be locally damaging winds and locally torrential rainfall reducing visibility to less than 1SM at times primarily affecting HTS, BKW, and CRW. While rain is expected farther north at the remaining terminals, it should be substantially lighter with a much lower chance of severe weather. Precipitation quickly exits the region to the southeast through 00- 02Z this evening with areas that receive a significant amount of rain likely to fog up heading into Wednesday morning. A reinforcing cold front arriving from the north should yield lesser fog potential across the north. Winds mainly light out of the west through this afternoon, turning light and northwesterly overnight, except gusty and erratic near any thunderstorms. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Ceiling/visibility may vary in convection this afternoon and evening. Restrictions due to fog tonight may vary from the forecast. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 EDT 1HRLY 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H L M H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY M M H M H H M M M H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H M L H H M H H H EKN CONSISTENCY M M H H H L H H H H M M PKB CONSISTENCY H M H H H H M H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H M H H L L AFTER 18Z WEDNESDAY... IFR valley fog possible Thursday morning. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && SYNOPSIS...FK/JP NEAR TERM...JP SHORT TERM...FK LONG TERM...JSH AVIATION...JP
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Charleston WV 1239 PM EDT Tue May 16 2023 KYZ102-103-105-WVZ005-006-013>015-026-027-515>520-171645- Carter-Boyd-Lawrence KY-Wayne-Cabell-Lincoln-Putnam-Kanawha-Boone- Clay-Northwest Raleigh-Southeast Raleigh-Northwest Fayette- Southeast Fayette-Northwest Nicholas-Southeast Nicholas- 1239 PM EDT Tue May 16 2023 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of northeast Kentucky, and portions of central, southeast, southern and western West Virginia. .DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight. Severe thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and evening. The main hazards are damaging wind gusts and hail. Heavy downpours or repetitive rounds of rainfall over the same areas may result in an elevated risk of flash flooding. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday. Hazardous weather is not expected at this time. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather conditions by calling the toll-free spotter hotline, or by other methods detailed at www.weather.gov/rlx/reports. VAZ003-004-WVZ024-025-033-034-171645- Dickenson-Buchanan-Mingo-Logan-McDowell-Wyoming- 1239 PM EDT Tue May 16 2023 ...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 225 IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING... This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southwest Virginia and southern West Virginia West Virginia. .DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight. Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the Internet for more information about the following hazards. Severe Thunderstorm Watch. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday. Hazardous weather is not expected at this time. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather conditions by calling the toll-free spotter hotline, or by other methods detailed at www.weather.gov/rlx/reports. KYZ101-OHZ066-067-075-076-083>087-WVZ007>011-016>020-028>032-039-040- 521>526-171645- Greenup-Perry-Morgan-Athens-Washington-Jackson OH-Vinton-Meigs- Gallia-Lawrence OH-Mason-Jackson WV-Wood-Pleasants-Tyler-Roane-Wirt- Calhoun-Ritchie-Doddridge-Braxton-Gilmer-Lewis-Harrison-Taylor- Upshur-Barbour-Northwest Webster-Southeast Webster- Northwest Pocahontas-Southeast Pocahontas-Northwest Randolph- Southeast Randolph- 1239 PM EDT Tue May 16 2023 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of northeast Kentucky, southeast Ohio, and portions of central, northeast, northern and western West Virginia. .DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight. No hazardous weather is expected at this time. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday. No hazardous weather is expected at this time. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather conditions by calling the toll-free spotter hotline, or by other methods detailed at www.weather.gov/rlx/reports.
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Charleston WV
206 PM EDT Tue May 16 2023
VAZ003-004-161830-
Dickenson VA-Buchanan VA-
206 PM EDT Tue May 16 2023
...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of Dickenson and
southwestern Buchanan Counties through 230 PM EDT...
At 205 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Clintwood, moving east at 30 mph.
HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and half inch hail.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
possible.
Locations impacted include...
Clintwood, Grundy, Haysi, Davenport, Breaks Interstate, John
Flannagan Lake, Clinchco, Vansant and McClure.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If outdoors, seek shelter inside a building until the storm has
passed.
To report severe weather, contact your nearest law enforcement
agency. They will relay your report to the National Weather Service
office in Charleston West Virginia.
A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 800 PM EDT for
southwestern Virginia.
&&
LAT...LON 3705 8210 3704 8211 3709 8252 3711 8253
3722 8253 3721 8252 3724 8245 3727 8235
3728 8234 3729 8232 3731 8206 3704 8207
3704 8209
TIME...MOT...LOC 1805Z 271DEG 24KT 3718 8243
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH
FMKSpecial Weather Statement
National Weather Service Charleston WV
250 PM EDT Tue May 16 2023
VAZ004-161915-
Buchanan VA-
250 PM EDT Tue May 16 2023
...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of southern Buchanan
County through 315 PM EDT...
At 249 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Davenport, moving east at 30 mph.
HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and pea size hail.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
possible.
Locations impacted include...
Davenport, Vansant and Oakwood.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If outdoors, seek shelter inside a building until the storm passes.
To report severe weather, contact your nearest law enforcement
agency. They will relay your report to the National Weather Service
office in Charleston West Virginia.
A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 800 PM EDT for
southwestern Virginia...and southern West Virginia.
&&
LAT...LON 3705 8214 3711 8216 3716 8221 3724 8215
3725 8174 3723 8174 3720 8176 3718 8185
3713 8192 3713 8196 3712 8197 3713 8199
3712 8200 3709 8202 3707 8202 3705 8205
TIME...MOT...LOC 1849Z 271DEG 24KT 3715 8206
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH
KredensorThe Jackson,KY radar (KJKL), 93 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 21:15 UTC.
13 thunderstorm wind. Local standard time, as filed.
Near Tandy, one tree was blown down along the Lake Road and Marina CV.
A tree was blown down in Clintwood along Miami Lane. A couple miles down the road, another tree was downed onto DC Truck Stop Road near Clinchco.
A tree was blown down onto Centennial Heights Road near Haysi.
Near the Dwale township, a tree was blown down at the intersection of Lake Road and Dwale Lane. Another tree fell onto Newberry Ridge and Big Ridge Road.
In Clinchco, a tree was blown down at 212 DC Truck Stop Road.
Numerous trees were blown down onto Vicey Mountain Road. Four of those trees fell onto nearby homes. On Doe Branch Road, trees and power lines were blown down.
A cluster of trees were blown down along Bartlick Road and Little Rockhouse Road.
The top portion of a communications tower west of Grundy was bent over as a result of damaging wind gusts.
One tree was blown down along GC Powers Drive near Haysi.
One tree was blown down along Robinson Fork Road in the area of Garden Creek.
In Skeetrock, a tree was blown down and busted a water line. Down the road in Tandy, a tree blew down onto a home along Old Stone Drive.
A tree fell down onto an occuipied vehicle on Welcome Lane near the town of Vicey. The occupant of the car, a sixty-five year old man, died as a result.
In Haysi, a tree was blown down onto a vehicle in a driveway along Pat Field Road.
As the offices recorded each death: direct deaths were caused by the weather itself, indirect ones by something it set in motion.
| Event | Date | Age | Sex | Where | Kind |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thunderstorm Wind, Dickenson | 2023-05-16 | 65 | Male | Vehicle/Towed Trailer | Direct |
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Virginia in 2023Every state in 2023This day in weather historyWarnings in Virginia, May 2023
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1093040, 1093036, 1093064, 1093038, 1093065, 1093043, 1093045, 1093048, 1093066, 1093006, 1093060, 1093067, 1093068.