Afternoon through early evening thunderstorms produced some damage.
Every event with a place to put it. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS HGX wrote it up.
Afternoon through early evening thunderstorms produced some damage.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Houston/Galveston, TX wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at May 16, 11:42 AM CST, 2 hours 19 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 1242 PM CDT Tue May 16 2023 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Wednesday Night) Issued at 403 AM CDT Tue May 16 2023 Weak surface high pressure should be situated off the coast today with a diffuse frontal boundary close to our northern zones. In the upper levels, a mid-upper trof seen on water vapor imagery centered south of the Big Bend area will drift in our direction. PW's around 1.75" will be prevalent across the area with convective temperatures in the 82-84 degree range. Suspect we'll probably see some scattered shra/tstm development get going during the afternoon...more than likely in the coastal zones or south of I-10 where temperatures should warm faster and a seabreeze/baybreeze initiates. Also, can't rule out a few along/near frontal zone well inland. The overall flow regime is very light and storm motions will be slow. Environment will be favorable for any localized stronger cells to produce a couple inches of rain in a short time period...collapse and send outflows to possibly interact/collide and regenerate another storm or two. Very localized street flooding will be the primary hazard during the late afternoon to early evening hours, with gusty winds under collapsing cells secondary. Convection should mostly diminish a few hours after sunset. With the upper trof axis passing to our east later tonight & Wednesday, we should see a drier airmass filtering in with PW's falling to ~1" and corresponding rain chances diminishing. 47 && .LONG TERM... (Thursday through Tuesday) Issued at 403 AM CDT Tue May 16 2023 With slightly drier air filtering in following Wednesday's weak cold front and ridging aloft shifting in from the west, we'll transition towards a dry and hot period at the end of the work week. With PW values quite a bit below the 75th percentile (~1.55") and plenty of sunshine, we'll be able to heat rather efficiently. This leads to temperatures on Thursday topping out in the upper 80s with some spots flirting with the low 90s. Things get a bit more toasty on Friday as the drier air remains in place in addition to southwesterly winds aloft becoming established ahead of an approaching frontal system. This should lead to widespread high temperatures in the low 90s on Friday, which would make this our hottest day since the first week of May. Those low 90s persist into Saturday for locations along and south of I-10 due to prefrontal heating. I'm gonna need to make a hair appointment to get some frosted tips, because the 90s are back!!! Well...for a few days at least...let's talk FROPA. On Thursday/Friday an upper level low begins to dip down into the Northern Plains and drifts towards the Great Lakes region (fairly close to the Alberta Clipper track). The subsequent surface low follows the same track as well. The low doesn't reach its most southern extent until its already to our east, so we won't get in on the climatologically cool 850mb temperatures associated with this system. BUT we'll still get the tail-end of the cold front. With a 1024-1026mb surface high pressure behind the front, there's pretty good confidence that the front will push all the way through Southeast TX. PW values surge to 1.8"-2.0" along the frontal boundary, so showers and thunderstorms will be possible ahead of and along the frontal boundary. Since we miss out on the cooler temperatures aloft, we'll keep those warm daytime temperatures...but at least they'll max out in the mid to upper 80s versus the 90s. June is on the horizon, so I'll take as many below 90°F days as possible! Current model trends point towards the front stalling out just offshore and washing out. Onshore winds don't return for a few days though, so we'll likely get to enjoy dew points in the mid 60s for the latter half of the weekend and into early next week. That's about as good as it gets for this time of year! Ridging aloft looks to build in again early next week, but some embedded shortwaves and PW values around the 75th percentile (near 90th percentile off the coast: ~1.74") should be enough to generate our typical diurnal showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon and evening hours. With another ridge building in though, models are hinting at an upward temperature trend going into next week...*Tamagotchi noises intensifies* Batiste && .AVIATION... (18Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 1227 PM CDT Tue May 16 2023 Scatted showers and storms are expected to develop across SE Texas this afternoon. Storm chances are highest in areas at and south of KIAH, especially during the late afternoon with support from the sea breeze. These storms will generally be slow moving in nature, capable of producing gusty winds and locally heavy rainfall. Showers and storms taper off this evening with light and variable winds expected overnight. Patchy fog could briefly develop across portions of SE Texas during the early morning hours of Wednesday, especially at KLBX and KCXO. Any fog/low decks should clear out after sunrise. VFR conditions and N/NW winds should then prevail through the remainder of the TAF period. 03 && .MARINE... Issued at 403 AM CDT Tue May 16 2023 Relatively benign period expected for the next several days as light winds and 1-3 ft seas prevail. Afternoon chances for showers and thunderstorms continues into Wednesday before conditions trend drier following a weak cold front pushing offshore. Winds will briefly be northerly before taking a westerly to southwesterly turn going into late Wednesday. Onshore flow returns by Thursday afternoon and prevails into Saturday. Another cold front will approach the region on Saturday leading to winds transitioning to southwesterly once again. The front looks to push offshore by Saturday night with showers and thunderstorms possible ahead of and along its boundary and northerly winds prevailing in its wake. Batiste && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 403 AM CDT Tue May 16 2023 Multiple river sites, creeks, and bayous across Southeast TX continue to have elevated flows leading them to be near or above flood stage. The main trouble spots are along the Lavaca/Navidad and Tres Palacios River basins in Jackson and Matagorda Counties, western Harris County (Cypress Creek, Mound Creek, Spring Creek, Live Oak Creek), portions of Montgomery County along Caney Creek and the west fork of the San Jacinto River, portions of Walker County along the west fork of the San Jacinto River and Bedias Creek, and along the San Bernard River along the border of Fort Bend and Wharton Counties. The overall trend is that upstream sites have either crested or are near cresting, so will need to monitor downstream gauges as they rise towards their crest as water continues to flow through their respective channels. There are chances for showers and thunderstorms over the next couple of days, and with soils still saturated from the prior days of rainfall and numerous streams still elevated...will need to monitor the potential for additional rises depending on where rain falls. Model guidance points toward the greatest probability for rainfall (and the higher end of forecast rainfall totals) being south of I-10, so sites already near or in flood stage along the San Bernard, Lavaca, Navidad, and Tres Palacios will need to be monitored for additional rises this afternoon. Batiste && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... College Station (CLL) 81 65 83 65 / 30 20 0 0 Houston (IAH) 85 69 84 67 / 60 60 20 0 Galveston (GLS) 84 72 83 72 / 30 20 20 0 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && SHORT TERM...47 LONG TERM....Batiste AVIATION...03 MARINE...Batiste
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
130 PM CDT Tue May 16 2023
TXZ236-237-336-161900-
Inland Brazoria TX-Coastal Matagorda TX-Inland Matagorda TX-
130 PM CDT Tue May 16 2023
...A cluster of strong thunderstorms will impact portions of western
Brazoria and central Matagorda Counties through 200 PM CDT...
At 129 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a cluster of strong
thunderstorms near South Texas Nuclear Plant. These storms were
nearly stationary.
HAZARD...Winds in excess of 30 mph and pea size hail.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
possible.
Locations impacted include...
Bay City, Palacios, South Texas Nuclear Plant, Sargent, Van Vleck and
Wadsworth.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
&&
LAT...LON 2862 9619 2881 9628 2906 9581 2881 9564
TIME...MOT...LOC 1829Z 239DEG 3KT 2877 9600
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...30 MPH
BBSpecial Weather Statement
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
301 PM CDT Tue May 16 2023
TXZ213-237-238-313-338-162030-
Inland Brazoria TX-Coastal Harris TX-Inland Galveston TX-
Coastal Galveston TX-Inland Harris TX-
301 PM CDT Tue May 16 2023
...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of northwestern
Galveston, northern Brazoria and southeastern Harris Counties through
330 PM CDT...
At 301 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Dickinson, moving northwest at 10 mph.
HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and half inch hail.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
possible.
Locations impacted include...
Southern Pasadena, League City, Texas City, southern Friendswood,
Alvin, Dickinson, La Marque, Santa Fe, Seabrook, Webster, Hitchcock,
Kemah, southeastern Clear Lake, Nassau Bay, Taylor Lake Village, El
Lago, Clear Lake Shores, The Johnson Space Center, Bacliff and Kemah
Boardwalk.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
&&
LAT...LON 2943 9491 2933 9502 2947 9525 2962 9505
TIME...MOT...LOC 2001Z 134DEG 9KT 2945 9506
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPHThe Houston radar (KHGX), 4 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 20:02 UTC.
2 thunderstorm wind, 1 lightning, 1 hail, 1 flash flood. Local standard time, as filed.
An historic Dickinson home caught on fire and was destroyed after a lightning strike.
There was penny sized hail.
A large tree limb was downed.
Standing water was reported on the I-69 frontage Rd near Kingwood.
Wind gust occurred at KIAH.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Texas in 2023Every state in 2023This day in weather historyWarnings in Texas, May 2023
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1091996, 1091999, 1092000, 1102315, 1092001.