Weak shortwave brought scattered discrete thunderstorms followed by a line of thunderstorms through east Tennessee, producing several large hail reports and straight line wind damage.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS MRX wrote it up.
Weak shortwave brought scattered discrete thunderstorms followed by a line of thunderstorms through east Tennessee, producing several large hail reports and straight line wind damage.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Morristown, TN wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at May 16, 6:00 AM EST, 25 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Morristown TN 700 AM EDT Tue May 16 2023 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Today and tonight) Issued at 323 AM EDT Tue May 16 2023 Key Messages: 1. Scattered showers and thunderstorms expected this afternoon and evening. 2. Some thunderstorms will likely be severe this afternoon and evening, especially across northern East Tennessee and southwest Virginia. Discussion: The shortwave across southeast MO and southern IL this morning will progress eastward today with height falls and increasing mid-level winds as upper-divergence increases across the Central Appalachians and Mid-Atlantic region. Along with this shortwave trough, an associated surface low will move eastward from SE MO towards SE KY by 0z Wednesday. A weak trailing cold front will move southeast in response. Ahead of this surface low and cold front, MLCAPE is forecast to reach 1500 to 2000 J/Kg with effective bulk shear of 30 to 40 kt. The vertical wind profile is largely unidirectional with straight hodographs which will mitigate the overall tornado risk for the region. However, there will be additional backing of surface winds further north near the Kentucky state line and into southwest Virginia near the warm front boundary and surface low track. This will locally enhance low-level shear in these areas which is where the low tornado risk will exist for any supercells that develop. Otherwise, most of the region will have a risk of damaging winds and localized hail with multicell thunderstorm clusters being the primary convective mode. In addition, with PW values of around 1.6 to 1.7 inches across the entire area, heavy rainfall rates will be possible within stronger convection. Localized flooding will be possible in flood prone areas and in any regions where training of convection develops. Chances of showers and thunderstorms should begin to decrease between 0z and 03z Wednesday as the shortwave and surface low tracks east of the region. The surface cold front will continue to surge southward with drier air beginning to filter in from the north by 12z Wednesday. && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday through Tuesday) Issued at 323 AM EDT Tue May 16 2023 Key Messages: 1. Coverage of showers and thunderstorms will decrease on Wednesday with an uptick in coverage on Thursday. 2. More widespread showers and thunderstorms are increasingly likely heading into Saturday ahead of an approaching front. This will be followed by drier conditions. Wednesday through Friday At the start of the period, quasi-zonal flow will be in place aloft with a frontal boundary located just to our south. A jet streak will also be exiting the region to the east. With much of the moisture and better forcing south of the region, any precipitation chances will be limited and mainly south of the area. On Thursday, another shortwave will approach from the west with moisture slowly pulling back into the region. This will lead to an uptick in diurnal rain chances in comparison to Wednesday. With fairly weak flow and marginal instability/PWAT values, concerns for strong to severe storms and/or flooding are very minimal. On Friday, the flow will become more zonal with fairly weak forcing, likely keeping the area dry. The focus will turn towards another shortwave/upper jet near the Great Lakes with a surface frontal boundary approaching from the north. Saturday through Monday At this time, there still remains uncertainty as to when the frontal boundary will reach the area with the GFS still being the fastest of the deterministic solutions. With this solution, pre-frontal convection would take place more during the Friday night to Saturday morning period with the other solutions suggesting this convection to be focused more during the day on Saturday. The timing of this frontal passage will definitely affect how much diurnal instability is available to support any stronger storms. However, initial indications of the overall flow pattern definitely look to keep the better severe chances further south and west where thermodynamics are expected to be more notable due to low-level moisture. In any case, the main message will be for PoPs focused during the Friday night into Saturday timeframe before high pressure returns later on. This will lead to a drier pattern, following the subsidence. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 645 AM EDT Tue May 16 2023 Fog and low clouds this morning should improve to predominant VFR by mid-day across the area with scattered showers and thunderstorms this afternoon. Some thunderstorms may be strong with gusty winds and hail this afternoon and evening with the primary risk at TRI and TYS. Winds will be brisk from the SW through the afternoon at all sites. Convection should move out of the area by 6z Wednesday with MVFR and IFR cigs expected in the wake of precip at the end of the period. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Chattanooga Airport, TN 87 64 81 61 / 60 80 30 10 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 84 62 79 57 / 80 90 20 10 Oak Ridge, TN 85 59 81 57 / 90 60 10 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 79 58 77 52 / 90 100 10 10 && .MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...NONE. TN...NONE. VA...NONE. && SHORT TERM...JB LONG TERM....BW AVIATION...JB
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Morristown TN 337 AM EDT Tue May 16 2023 NCZ060-061-TNZ012>018-035>047-067>074-081>087-098>102-VAZ001-002- 005-006-008-170745- Cherokee-Clay-Scott TN-Campbell-Claiborne-Hancock-Hawkins- Sullivan-Johnson-Morgan-Anderson-Union-Grainger-Hamblen- Northwest Cocke-Cocke Smoky Mountains-Northwest Greene- Southeast Greene-Washington TN-Unicoi-Northwest Carter- Southeast Carter-Roane-Loudon-Knox-Jefferson-Northwest Blount- Blount Smoky Mountains-North Sevier-Sevier Smoky Mountains- Sequatchie-Bledsoe-Rhea-Meigs-McMinn-Northwest Monroe- Southeast Monroe-Marion-Hamilton-Bradley-West Polk-East Polk-Lee- Wise-Scott VA-Russell-Washington VA- 337 AM EDT Tue May 16 2023 /237 AM CDT Tue May 16 2023/ This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of southwest North Carolina...east Tennessee and southwest Virginia. .DAY ONE...Today and Tonight Showers and thunderstorms will become more widespread this afternoon and evening ahead of an upper-level disturbance and cold front. Some thunderstorms may become severe with the primary risk being damaging winds and localized hail. There is a low risk of tornadoes, mainly across far northern East Tennessee and southwest Virginia. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday No hazardous weather is expected at this time. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotters are encourage to report severe weather and flooding reports on Tuesday and Tuesday night.
The Knoxville radar (KMRX), 80 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 11:24 UTC.
18 thunderstorm wind, 5 hail, 1 flash flood. Local standard time, as filed.
A few trees were blown down across the county by severe winds.
Several trees and additional large limbs blown down by strong winds in and near the Seven Oaks Subdivision.
Three trees were blown down by severe winds, one tree landed on top of a car.
Several trees blown down and roof damage to a nearby barn.
Several trees were reported blown down by severe winds in Campbell County.
Numerous trees across Sevier County reported blown down by severe winds.
Three inch tree limbs broken off trees in severe winds.
Tree reported blown down in Rutledge.
A few trees were blown down by severe winds.
Multiple trees were blown down by severe winds.
A few trees were blown down by severe winds.
A few trees blown down by severe winds.
A few trees were blown down across the county along with power lines.
Multiple trees were blown down by straight line winds.
Trees were blown down and were blocking a roadway.
Several trees were blown down by straight line winds.
A few trees blown down by straight line winds.
Flooded roads in northeast Knoxville. Corroborating public reports of flooding in southeast Knoxville and Maloneyville.
A few trees blown down across the county by straight line winds.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Tennessee in 2023Every state in 2023This day in weather historyWarnings in Tennessee, May 2023
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1099282, 1099278, 1099279, 1099288, 1099308, 1099280, 1099289, 1099291, 1099281, 1099292, 1099293, 1099294, 1099295, 1099296, 1099297, 1099298, 1099306, 1099299, 1099301, 1099300, 1099302, 1099303, 1102255, 1099304.