A surface cold front approaching from the north northwest in the afternoon was associated with a nearly west to east mid level shear axis streaking through the base of a large mid level trough whose low was centered over northern Quebec. Southwest flow ahead of this front drew in warm air and 60s dew points into the area, and this combined with strengthening mid level flow and upper divergence…
Every event with a place to put it. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS RAH wrote it up.
A surface cold front approaching from the north northwest in the afternoon was associated with a nearly west to east mid level shear axis streaking through the base of a large mid level trough whose low was centered over northern Quebec. Southwest flow ahead of this front drew in warm air and 60s dew points into the area, and this combined with strengthening mid level flow and upper divergence produced sufficient support for the development of numerous severe thunderstorms.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Raleigh, NC wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at May 16, 2:22 PM EST, 2 hours 26 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Raleigh NC 322 PM EDT Tue May 16 2023 .SYNOPSIS... A cold front will approach the area later today, bringing unsettled weather through tonight as the front crosses the region. This front will push to our south on Wednesday as high pressure begins to build in from the north, resulting in less humid and slightly cooler weather for late week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 315 PM Tuesday... ...Strong to severe storms with local flooding possible this late afternoon into tonight... Showers and thunderstorms are developing in the warm sector ahead of a cold front currently stretching northeast across the TN Valley. A prefrontal trough is moving east across the western Piedmont, and may help generate showers and thunderstorms this afternoon across the region before a larger area of storms move across the region associated with the cold front and upper shortwave tonight. Ridging aloft has helped many areas to become partly to mostly cloudy today, and the weak subsidence inversion may be helping to prevent many storms from developing along the prefrontal trough early this afternoon. Aside from that, increasing insolation and dewpoints in the mid-60s will likely overcome any inversion aloft by late afternoon and isolated to scattered convective activity is expected across the western Piedmont. Higher confidence in shower and thunderstorm activity remains with the approaching cold front later this evening and overnight. High- res CAMS slightly differ in the details of coverage and timing, but with the greatest coverage near the NC/VA border. With 0-6km shear of 40-50 kt and MUCAPE of 1500-2500 J/kg, strong and organized storms are possible, with the highest chances west of the Triangle. SPC has highlighted areas west of Highway 1 under a Slight Risk (level 2/5) and most areas elsewhere a Marginal Risk (level 1/5) for severe storms this afternoon and evening. Although lower-level shear is not too strong, curved hodographs and updraft helicity swaths show the potential for isolated tornadoes, as well. Precipitable water values around 1.75 inches will increase the potential for heavy rain and flash flooding, mainly over and north of the Triangle. Once the front moves towards the southern half of central NC, conditions may become more stable with the threat of severe weather diminishing across the area. The front should clear the area by late tonight, with all areas becoming dry by sunrise. Lows will remain mild, with temperatures only lowering to the mid-60s. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... As of 125 PM Tuesday... Skies will clear from north to south Wednesday as cold front settles across South Carolina. As the front stalls to the south a few lingering showers are possible in the far southern portions of the FA. Pops have been trending drier, but still held onto low slight chance PoPs for Wednesday during the day for the southern portion of the Sandhills and the southern portion of the Coastal Plain. Northerly winds 5-10mph will start the day off before veering to a more easterly wind overnight. Gusts over night near the SC border could be up to 25 mph as surface high pressure over PA influences the area. Temperatures will be noticeably cooler than today as we will see dew points in the 50s everywhere by the afternoon. High temperatures will be in the upper 70s and low 80s north, to mid 80s south. .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 200 PM Tuesday... Surface high pressure over New England Thursday will slowly shift offshore Thursday afternoon. When the influence of the surface high weakens the the stalled front across South Carolina could bring showers into the far southern portion of the FA, although most recent models have held most of the precip to the south. For now trending drier for Thursday, but low slight chance PoPs remain in the forecast. The boundary across south Carolina will begin to push southeast late Thursday. With the increase of low level moisture and northeasterly flow in the mid levels, a weak mid level low pressure system could develop off the SC/NC coast by early Friday morning. The GFS has the low pressure off shore enough where Central NC will see minimal impact Friday afternoon where as the ECMWF model has a larger low pressure system with some impacts for the Central NC. For now, went with a blend of the two with slight chance PoPs along and east of I95 corridor for Friday afternoon and evening. A brief lull will occur Saturday as the disturbance moves up along the Mid- Atlantic coast and a cold front moves into the Mid-Atlantic from the west. A cold front associated with a mid level low pressure over the Great Lakes region will sweep across the Mid-Atlantic Friday and Saturday. However, the timing and coverage Central NC will see is uncertain as models diverge from each other beginning Saturday morning. For now kept PoPs around 30 percent for Saturday and into Sunday morning as the cold front moves across the region. By Sunday night, all of Central NC is expected to be dry as high pressure from the west begins to build into the region for Monday and Tuesday. Highs over the weekend and into early next week will be in the low 80s north to mid 80s in the south. Lows will be in the mid to upper 50s with areas to the south near 60. && .AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 145 PM Tuesday... Aside from MVFR ceilings at KINT this afternoon, VFR conditions will continue for the next few hours. SHRA and TSRA will develop across the north and west later this afternoon through early tonight and push E/SE through the period. Sub-VFR conditions are expected in low ceilings, and reduced VIS in downpours. Gusty and erratic winds are expected near storms, along with strong up/downdrafts and frequent lightning. Conditions will begin to improve as storms exit the area late tonight, however MVFR ceilings are possible by daybreak. Winds shift north to northeast Wed morning. Beyond 18z Wed: VFR conditions should develop Wed, however low stratus may generate sub-VFR conditions at times overnight through the end of the week. An approaching front may bring sub-VFR conditions in showers and storms late Saturday through Sunday. && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && SYNOPSIS...Hartfield/JJT NEAR TERM...JJT SHORT TERM...CA LONG TERM...CA AVIATION...JJT
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Raleigh NC 413 PM EDT Tue May 16 2023 NCZ007>010-021>026-038>041-172015- Person-Granville-Vance-Warren-Forsyth-Guilford-Alamance-Orange- Durham-Franklin-Davidson-Randolph-Chatham-Wake- 413 PM EDT Tue May 16 2023 ...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 226 IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING... This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central North Carolina. .DAY ONE...Tonight. Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the Internet for more information about the following hazards. Severe Thunderstorm Watch. In addition, isolated flooding is possible where multiple storms pass repeatedly over the same areas. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday. Hazardous weather is not expected at this time. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation may be needed this evening. NCZ011-027-028-042-043-073>078-083>086-088-089-172015- Halifax-Nash-Edgecombe-Johnston-Wilson-Stanly-Montgomery-Moore-Lee- Harnett-Wayne-Anson-Richmond-Scotland-Hoke-Cumberland-Sampson- 413 PM EDT Tue May 16 2023 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central North Carolina. .DAY ONE...Tonight. Isolated strong to severe storms is possible through this evening. Damaging winds are the primary threat. Some isolated flooding is possible as well. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday. Hazardous weather is not expected at this time. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time.
The Raleigh/Durham radar (KRAX), 106 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 21:46 UTC.
24 thunderstorm wind, 1 hail. Local standard time, as filed.
Trees were reported down on power lines along Shore Acres Drive.
Trees were reported down on power lines near Old Mill Creek Road.
One tree was reported down on Macon Embro Road.
One tree was reported down on Aurelian Springs Road near Highway 48.
Multiple trees were reported down on power lines near Hyco Lake.
Half dollar size hail was reported near Bethel Hill School Road and Highway 501.
Multiple trees were reported down near Bethel Hill School Road and Highway 501.
Numerous trees were reported down throughout the county.
Trees were reported down Thompson Drive.
Multiple trees were reported down on power lines near the Piedmont Triad International Airport.
Multiple trees were reported down on power lines near John Kerr Resevoir.
One tree was reported down at the intersection of Pinecroft Road and Vanstory Street.
One tree was reported down on power lines on Liberty Road.
Trees were reported down on power lines along United Sates Highway 15, just north of Puckett Street.
One tree was reported down on Bellemont Alamance Road.
One tree was reported down on Belmont Mount Hermon Road.
One trees was reported down at Rogers Road and Southern High Mount Hermon Road.
One tree was reported down on a mobile home on Freshwater Road.
Multiple trees were reported down on power lines.
A tree was reported down in the intersection of Medlin Road and Windless Trail.
One tree was reported down near the intersection of Archer Lodge Road and Buffalo Road.
One tree was reported down near the intersection of House Road and Flower Hill Road.
Trees were reported down in the Scotland Neck area.
A tree fell on an unoccupied house near Covered Bridge Road and Aldean Drive.
Two trees were reported down near Highway 27.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in North Carolina in 2023Every state in 2023This day in weather historyWarnings in North Carolina, May 2023
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1096182, 1096183, 1096184, 1096185, 1096186, 1096181, 1096187, 1097464, 1097483, 1097468, 1097471, 1097466, 1097469, 1097476, 1097477, 1097467, 1097478, 1097479, 1097470, 1097472, 1097474, 1097475, 1097482, 1097480, 1097481.