Showers and thunderstorms developed ahead of a cold front moving through the Ohio Valley.
Every event with a place to put it. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS ILN wrote it up.
Showers and thunderstorms developed ahead of a cold front moving through the Ohio Valley.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Wilmington, OH wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Feb 16, 2:20 PM EST, 2 hours 10 minutes earlier.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
Issued by National Weather Service Cleveland OH
220 PM EST Thu Feb 16 2023
.SYNOPSIS...
Showers and storms are expected through tonight before fair
weather returns on Friday through this weekend. Below normal
temperatures on Friday trend back to above normal this weekend
into early next week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AT THE START OF THE PERIOD, THE CENTER OF THE SURFACE LOW WILL BE
MOVING INTO THE WESTERN CWA, DRAGGING A COLD FRONT ALONG WITH
IT. THE SEVERE THREAT LOOKS TO HAVE SIGNIFICANTLY DIMINISHED
WITH RECENT HI-RES MODEL RUNS...WHILE SHEAR IS STILL
IMPRESSIVE, INSTABILITY IS NEAR NON-EXISTENT GIVEN THE
OVERTURNING OF THE ENVIRONMENT FROM EARLY MORNING CONVECTION.
WITH THAT BEING SAID, A VERY NARROW CORRIDOR OF WEAK SBCAPE MAY
BE ABLE TO MAKE IT UP TO OUR FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES… AS THE COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA, STORMS FORCED AHEAD OF THE
BOUNDARY ARE STILL POSSIBLE, PARTICULARLY IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST,,
BUT SEVERE THREAT IS RATHER LIMITED. MUCH COLDER AIR IS USHERED
IN ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SYSTEM AND TEMPERATURES DROP INTO THE
20S BY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
PRECIPITATION MOVES EAST OUT OF THE AREA AND WE DRY OUT FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. A MUCH COLDER DAY IN STORE ON FRIDAY,
AS A COLD AIR ADVECTION REGIME DOMINATES, WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES
IN THE 30S. BREEZY CONDITIONS REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGHOUT THE
DAYTIME HOURS FRIDAY WITH NORTHWEST FLOW. WINDS DECREASE FRIDAY
EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE NUDGES INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST.
MASS SUBSIDENCE HELPS DECREASE CLOUDS AND TEMPERATURES AGAIN
DROP INTO THE 20S.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
QUIET WEATHER FOR THIS WEEKEND WITH AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN
DEVELOPING NEXT WEEK AS MULTIPLE SYSTEMS TRACK THROUGH THE AREA.
BROAD MID LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE GULF STATES WITH A WESTERLY FLOW
ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS QUICKLY EAST OF
THE AREA WITH A SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW DEVELOPING ON ITS BACKSIDE.
COLD TEMPERATURES WILL BE SHORT LIVED WITH HIGHS FROM THE LOWER 40S
TO THE UPPER 40S SATURDAY AND 50 TO 55 SUNDAY.
WEAK MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE DAMPENS OUT AS IT PASSES THROUGH THE AREA
SUNDAY OFFERING ONLY SOME CLOUDS WITH CONTINUED DRY WEATHER.
A WESTERLY MORE ZONAL MID LEVEL FLOW PATTERN DEVELOPS WITH SEVERAL
WAVES RIPPLING ALONG A STALLED FRONT TO OUR SOUTH BRINGING THE
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERAL ROUNDS OF PRECIPITATION NEXT WEEK. MODEL SOLUTIONS
SHOW SPREAD ON EXACT TIMING ON EACH OF THESE WAVES AND THEREFORE
FORECAST UNCERTAINTY EXISTS.
MILD TEMPERATURES CONTINUE WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 40S AND 50S.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As the low pressure moves northeast through the area, the
heaviest axis of rain remains just south of our southernmost TAF
sites. With that being said, scattered to isolated showers are
still moving through the area and have kept VCSH in for all TAF
sites. Given AM precipitation overturning the environment,
thunderstorm threat appears to be diminishing this afternoon/
evening, especially for northernmost TAF sites. Have included a
brief tempo group for southern sites with TSRA possibility
during evening hours. Precipitation moves east out of the area
during overnight hours and Friday morning should arrive dry.
CIGs are IFR/LIFR for all sites and expect this to continue
through the overnight hours into early morning, when we will see
a slow improvement to MVFR into the afternoon hours Friday. VSBYs
remain primarily MVFR/ VFR for the rest of Thursday with a
steady improvement as precipitation moves out of the area.
As the low pressure system traverses through the area, breezy
conditions begin to creep up from south to north, with winds out
of the south initially around 15 knots with gusts up to 25
knots. Around 00Z winds will begin to veer to out of the
west/southwest, continuing to veer to out of the northwest for
all sites by Friday morning hours.
OUTLOOK...MVFR CIGs likely into early Friday.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...Flood Watch until 11 PM EST this evening for OHZ073-077>082-
088.
KY...Flood Watch until 11 PM EST this evening for KYZ089>100.
IN...Flood Watch until 11 PM EST this evening for INZ073>075-080.
&&
SYNOPSIS...ILN
NEAR TERM...ILN
SHORT TERM...ILN
LONG TERM...ILN
AVIATION...ILNHazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Wilmington OH Issued by National Weather Service Cleveland OH 324 PM EST Thu Feb 16 2023 INZ073>075-080-KYZ089>100-OHZ073-077>082-088-172030- Ripley-Dearborn-Ohio-Switzerland-Carroll-Gallatin-Boone-Kenton- Campbell-Owen-Grant-Pendleton-Bracken-Robertson-Mason-Lewis-Ross- Hamilton-Clermont-Brown-Highland-Adams-Pike-Scioto- 324 PM EST Thu Feb 16 2023 ...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING... This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Southeast Indiana, Northeast Kentucky, Northern Kentucky, South Central Ohio and Southwest Ohio. .DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight. Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the Internet for more information about the following hazards. Flood Watch. In addition, isolated severe thunderstorms with damaging wind gusts are possible through this evening, especially along and south of the Ohio River. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday. Hazardous weather is not expected at this time. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. INZ050-058-059-066-OHZ026-034-035-042>046-051>056-060>065-070>072- 074-172030- Wayne-Fayette IN-Union IN-Franklin IN-Hardin-Mercer-Auglaize-Darke- Shelby-Logan-Union OH-Delaware-Miami-Champaign-Clark-Madison- Franklin OH-Licking-Preble-Montgomery-Greene-Fayette OH-Pickaway- Fairfield-Butler-Warren-Clinton-Hocking- 324 PM EST Thu Feb 16 2023 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for East Central Indiana, Southeast Indiana, Central Ohio, Southwest Ohio and West Central Ohio. .DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight. Isolated severe thunderstorms with damaging wind gusts are possible through this evening, especially along and south of the Ohio River. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday. Hazardous weather is not expected at this time. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time.
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1121 AM EST THU FEB 16 2023
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
1105 AM HEAVY RAIN 1 NNW DILLONVALE 39.24N 84.41W
02/16/2023 M2.03 INCH HAMILTON OH PUBLIC
1105 AM HEAVY RAIN 1 E ADDYSTON 39.14N 84.70W
02/16/2023 M2.05 INCH HAMILTON OH PUBLIC
1107 AM HEAVY RAIN 1 NW FAIRFAX 39.15N 84.42W
02/16/2023 M2.12 INCH HAMILTON OH PUBLIC
1100 AM HEAVY RAIN MOUNT REPOSE 39.19N 84.22W
02/16/2023 M2.10 INCH CLERMONT OH PUBLIC
1100 AM HEAVY RAIN 3 ESE LOVELAND 39.25N 84.22W
02/16/2023 M2.13 INCH CLERMONT OH PUBLIC
1100 AM HEAVY RAIN 4 ENE BETHEL 38.99N 84.01W
02/16/2023 M2.14 INCH BROWN OH PUBLIC
1105 AM HEAVY RAIN 1 NNW FAYETTEVILLE 39.20N 83.94W
02/16/2023 M2.00 INCH BROWN OH PUBLIC
1110 AM HEAVY RAIN 1 W MOUNT ORAB 39.03N 83.95W
02/16/2023 M2.30 INCH BROWN OH PUBLIC
1100 AM HEAVY RAIN 3 ESE DILLSBORO 39.00N 85.02W
02/16/2023 M2.08 INCH DEARBORN IN PUBLIC
MESONET STATION AU645 DILLSBORO.
&&The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
1 flood. Local standard time, as filed.
County Road 324 was closed near State Route 11 due to high water.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Kentucky in 2023Every state in 2023This day in weather historyWarnings in Kentucky, February 2023
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1073918.