A low pressure center was slowly tracking into western Kentucky during the first part of the day on Wedensday, with a stationary front positioned along the Ohio River, and keeping much of eastern Kentucky in a warm, moist, and unstable airmass. Showers and thunderstorms were ongoing through much of the morning, leading to multiple flooding reports across the region.
Every event with a place to put it. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS JKL wrote it up.
A low pressure center was slowly tracking into western Kentucky during the first part of the day on Wedensday, with a stationary front positioned along the Ohio River, and keeping much of eastern Kentucky in a warm, moist, and unstable airmass. Showers and thunderstorms were ongoing through much of the morning, leading to multiple flooding reports across the region. Then by the afternoon, the low pressure center had moved into Indiana, allowing the stationary front to lift north as a warm front, and a cold front to begin traversing the western half of the state. A more progressive line of strong showers and thunderstorms moved through eastern Kentucky ahead of this cold front, finally coming to an end after the cold front had passed through overnight. Multiple reports of downed trees and additional flooding were reported as heavy rain and strong winds complimented some of these storms.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Jackson, KY wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Feb 16, 7:50 AM EST, 2 hours 36 minutes earlier.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED National Weather Service Jackson KY 750 AM EST Thu Feb 16 2023 .UPDATE... Issued at 750 AM EST THU FEB 16 2023 The continued trend for some of the heavier rains to fall to the north per radar trends and the CAMs consensus - with some gaudy QPF from various runs of the HRRR - have prompted an expansion of the Flash Flood Watch further north in eastern Kentucky. Have updated the grids primarily to fine tune the PoPs and beef up QPF north. Did also add in the latest obs and trends for the T/Td grids. These updates have been sent to the NDFD and web servers along with a freshened set of zones, HWO, FFA, and SAFs. && .SHORT TERM...(Today through Friday) Issued at 535 AM EST THU FEB 16 2023 Key Messages: 1. Widespread showers, with times of thunderstorms and heavy rain, can be expected through tonight. 2. Severe thunderstorm potential primarily for our western and northern areas (northwest of Sandy Hook to Williamsburg) this evening and into the night with damaging wind gusts the main threat. 3. Turning colder late tonight after the front moves through with snow showers through the day on Friday. Any light accumulations will be limited to the higher terrain near the Virginia border. 09Z sfc analysis shows a developing area of low pressure just west of the state riding northeast along a well defined boundary off to the northwest of Kentucky. This features a tightening pressure gradient supporting south winds of near 10 mph through eastern Kentucky this morning. It is these winds, and additional ones aloft, that are pushing higher PW air into the state along with sustaining a warm air mass. As a result, within the WAA sector of the main low, bands of showers and embedded thunderstorm are moving slowly northeast through the area bringing decent QPF to the area with the pockets of heavier rain occurring this morning. In this environment, temperatures and dewpoints are fairly uniform in the unseasonably mild and wet mid to upper 50s. While sfc based instability is still paltry over the area predawn, some limited elevated CAPE has been able to keep thunder going amid the main shower clusters. The models are in surprisingly good agreement aloft through the period especially considering the dynamic pattern affecting the region. They all depict deep layer southwest flow tightening up today and into tonight as an opening up, once deep, 5h wave lifts from the Central Plains to the Great Lakes by Friday morning. This process manages to maintain the amplified pattern aloft through Friday by having a significant portion of the trough holding back through the Southern Plains even as its main core stretches off to the east. This will bring some stark height falls to eastern Kentucky tonight and Friday with a quite healthy band of energy sweeping across the JKL CWA while the 5h trough axis does not pass until near 00Z Saturday. The small model spread supports using the NBM guidance as the starting point with most adjustments centered on severe parameters and QPF - particularly in the near term. Sensible weather will feature four seasons of very active weather through the end of the work week. The ongoing heavy rain and thunderstorm threat early this morning will set the stage for potential flooding from training cells through the morning - capped off by a band of additional heavy rain moving through this evening and tonight. The main concern for this situation is the establishment of prolonged bands of training convection this morning saturating the soils and producing excess runoff where they set up. This remains a confidence challenge as the hi-res models have had a hard time pinpointing a consistent location for the band of highest QPF. Latest HRRR runs continue to shift to the northwest which could spare the Cumberland and parts of the Kentucky basins the worst runoff, but also target the Red and Licking basins. Up to 6 inches of its model QPF heightens concern for these locations. There is still enough model and ensemble support for heavy rain through the southeast 2/3rds of the area, and in conjunction with WPC's excessive rain outlook, to prompt the issuance of a Flood Watch into early Friday morning. However, near term convective and CAM trends may necessitate a shift in the Flood Watch and best QPF more northwest. This situation will be monitored through the morning for updates to headlines and forecast specifics as needed. The next weather challenge will come from the anticipated pre- frontal thunderstorm line moving west to east later this evening with a strong potential for severe weather developing in central Kentucky and progressing east toward the JKL CWA. This line of storms will probably weaken as it runs out of the best instability when moving into eastern Kentucky. However strong to damaging convective winds gusts will be the main threat from these storms when they get here, though some large hail or an isolated tornado cannot be ruled out should the convective line stay robust as it arrives. We continue to message the Enhanced and Slight Risk for severe weather this evening and into the night for this front. The front clears the area by dawn Friday with strong CAA in its wake and that will support ample lingering pcpn transitioning to snow showers from west to east as the column cools. Look for the upslope winds post frontal to support snow showers through most of the day over the area, though warm ground and road temperatures will minimize and zero out any impacts - outside of maybe the highest peaks near the Virgnia border. A return to winter weather will be a stark contrast as highs today in the mid and upper 60s are replaced by afternoon readings in the mid 30s for most on Friday. Did not adjust temperatures much from the NBM through the period but did favor the PoPs and QPF from the CAMs today and tonight - exceeding them on Friday to better capture the upslope snow showers. .LONG TERM...(Friday night through Wednesday) Issued at 426 AM EST THU FEB 16 2023 The 16/00z model suite shows a positively-tilted 500H trough extending from Southern Quebec to the Tennessee Valley at the start of the period. Surface low pressure is centered over Nova Scotia while Canadian high pressure resides from the eastern Texas to the Lower Ohio Valley. Any lingering upslope snow showers and flurries over the higher elevations near the VA border will come to an end Friday evening/night as that high pressure builds east and the cyclonic flow around the departing low ceases. Expect skies to gradually clear, leading to a rather cold night after clouds suppress the temperatures on Friday. The fair weather will persist on Saturday as well, though high clouds become more prevalent late in the day. Thicker mid to high cloud cover will attend a passing upper level disturbance Saturday night. After one more day of quiet weather on Sunday, the new work week will feature an unsettled quasi- zonal flow pattern with a series of low pressure systems riding along a lingering baroclinic zone over the Ohio Valley. Temperatures will start the period near to slightly below normal but will quickly recover back to above normal. The coldest night, Friday night, is forecast to have low temperatures ranging in the upper teens through the colder hollows up to the middle 20s over the thermal belt ridges. From there, high temperatures warm into the mid 40s to lower 50s on Saturday, mainly into the 50s on Sunday and Monday, and then mostly 60s on Tuesday and Wednesday. Low temperatures moderate into the mid 20s to mid 30s on Saturday night and then range mainly in the 30s and 40s through Tuesday night. && .AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday morning) ISSUED AT 725 AM EST THU FEB 16 2023 Showers and times of thunderstorms will keep conditions mainly in the MVFR category for VIS and often CIGs, but with times of VFR possible, mainly in the afternoon. Times of IFR or even lower will be possible, especially during any passing thunderstorm. There is also a chance that storms could approach severe limits later in the day, with the best chance occurring along and west of a line from KSYM to KLOZ. After that line goes through CIGs will fall to MVFR and possible IFR into Friday morning. South to southwest winds of 5 to 10 kts currently will increase to 10 to 20 kts during the day, with gusts of 20 to 30 kts possible, especially if any more substantial breaks in the convection occurs. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Flood Watch through late tonight for KYZ044-050>052-058>060-068- 069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120. && UPDATE...GREIF SHORT TERM...GREIF LONG TERM...GEERTSON AVIATION...GREIF
Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED National Weather Service Jackson KY 730 AM EST Thu Feb 16 2023 KYZ044-050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120-171230- Fleming-Montgomery-Bath-Rowan-Estill-Powell-Menifee-Rockcastle- Jackson-Pulaski-Laurel-Wayne-McCreary-Whitley-Knox-Bell-Harlan- Elliott-Morgan-Johnson-Wolfe-Magoffin-Floyd-Lee-Breathitt-Knott- Owsley-Perry-Clay-Leslie-Letcher-Martin-Pike- Including the cities of Flemingsburg, Camargo, Jeffersonville, Mount Sterling, Owingsville, Morehead, Irvine, Ravenna, Clay City, Stanton, Frenchburg, Brodhead, Mount Vernon, McKee, Annville, Burnside, Somerset, London, Monticello, Stearns, Whitley City, Corbin, Williamsburg, Barbourville, Middlesboro, Pineville, Cumberland, Harlan, Sandy Hook, West Liberty, Paintsville, Campton, Salyersville, Prestonsburg, Wheelwright, Beattyville, Jackson, Hindman, Pippa Passes, Booneville, Hazard, Manchester, Hyden, Jenkins, Whitesburg, Inez, Coal Run, Elkhorn City, Pikeville, and South Williamson 730 AM EST Thu Feb 16 2023 ...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE TONIGHT... This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for a portion of eastern Kentucky. .DAY ONE...Today and tonight. Widespread showers will affect the area today and tonight, with times of thunderstorms expected. This will likely result in heavy to excessive rainfall, particularly along the Red, Licking, and Kentucky River basins, but also the Cumberland, leading to a potential for flash flooding and steep rises on area rivers. In addition, a band of strong thunderstorms are anticipated this afternoon and tonight ahead of a potent cold front. The strongest of these storms could also bring damaging wind gusts along with a small potential for large hail or an isolated tornado. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday. No hazardous weather is expected at this time. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotters are requested to pass along any storm, flooding, or heavy rain reports today and tonight. GREIF/GEERTSON
Special Weather Statement...UPDATED National Weather Service Jackson KY 435 AM EST Thu Feb 16 2023 KYZ044-050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120-162315- Fleming-Montgomery-Bath-Rowan-Estill-Powell-Menifee-Rockcastle- Jackson-Pulaski-Laurel-Wayne-McCreary-Whitley-Knox-Bell-Harlan- Elliott-Morgan-Johnson-Wolfe-Magoffin-Floyd-Lee-Breathitt-Knott- Owsley-Perry-Clay-Leslie-Letcher-Martin-Pike- Including the cities of Flemingsburg, Camargo, Jeffersonville, Mount Sterling, Owingsville, Morehead, Irvine, Ravenna, Clay City, Stanton, Frenchburg, Brodhead, Mount Vernon, McKee, Annville, Burnside, Somerset, London, Monticello, Stearns, Whitley City, Corbin, Williamsburg, Barbourville, Middlesboro, Pineville, Cumberland, Harlan, Sandy Hook, West Liberty, Paintsville, Campton, Salyersville, Prestonsburg, Wheelwright, Beattyville, Jackson, Hindman, Pippa Passes, Booneville, Hazard, Manchester, Hyden, Jenkins, Whitesburg, Inez, Coal Run, Elkhorn City, Pikeville, and South Williamson 435 AM EST Thu Feb 16 2023 ...Thunderstorms With Strong Winds and Heavy Rain Today Into Tonight... A low pressure system passing just to our north will bring a cold front through the region later tonight. Along and ahead of the front, showers and thunderstorms will affect us today into tonight. Heavy rainfall is likely for a portion of the area, leading to significant rises on streams. Some of the thunderstorms could also bring strong or damaging winds on today or this evening. However, the greatest threat for severe thunderstorms is over central and northern Kentucky. GREIF
The Jackson,KY radar (KJKL), 58 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 15:28 UTC.
6 flood, 3 thunderstorm wind, 2 debris flow, 1 flash flood. Local standard time, as filed.
A NWS employee reported that 4 to 5 inches of water was flowing across Hwy-460 about a mile west of Means in Montgomery County.
Water was over Spencer Road near Howard Lane just outside of Mount Sterling.
The county warning point had received reports of water over secondary roads along and east of Hwy-460 in Mount Sterling. Some of these roads were going to be closed, but the exact roads were not known at the time of the report. There was also water over the road at Central Pike and Whitaker road just southeast of Mount Sterling.
Hwy-460 was closed near the Menifee/Montgomery County Line - near Slate Creek.
A trained spotter reported 18 inches of flowing water over KY-1427 (Abbott Creek Road) near Creek Side Drive. This is a highly flood prone area.
A large mudslide, triggered by heavy rainfall, had Hwy-52 blocked for some time at mile marker 7, between Gilbert Road and Yeadon Branch.
A powerline was reported down on West Hwy-80 near the town of Nancy.
A tree was reported down on US-25 near the community of Pine Hill.
A tree was downed on Piney Branch Road in the Livingston community, according to a public report relayed through television media.
Hwy-1184 (Cane Creek Road) was closed near the community of Rosslyn due to flooding.
A NWS employee came upon a road block around 5762 KY-15, northwest of Bethany, due to a hillside/driveway being washed out onto the road and making the road impassable.
Pictures and videos on social media show a large SUV having been swept into a water-filled ditch in front of River Bend Apartments in Salyersville, after trying to drive through the flooded roadway (KY-7/Gardner Trail) and losing traction. The car was mostly submerged in the water, but all occupants were able to escape the flooded vehicle.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Kentucky in 2023Every state in 2023This day in weather historyWarnings in Kentucky, February 2023
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1083353, 1083352, 1083343, 1083351, 1083342, 1083340, 1083324, 1083341, 1083329, 1083328, 1083327, 1083323.