A warm front lifted north of the area and warm, moist, and unstable air flowed into the Mid-South during the morning hours of February 16, 2023. A strong upper-level jet streak across the Great Lakes produced ascent across the Mid-South resulting in showers and thunderstorms with heavy rainfall and flash flooding across West Tennessee.
Every event with a place to put it. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS MEG wrote it up.
A warm front lifted north of the area and warm, moist, and unstable air flowed into the Mid-South during the morning hours of February 16, 2023. A strong upper-level jet streak across the Great Lakes produced ascent across the Mid-South resulting in showers and thunderstorms with heavy rainfall and flash flooding across West Tennessee. Later in the day as the cold front approached, thunderstorms intensified and produced a few tornadoes across northeast Mississippi.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Memphis, TN wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Feb 16, 11:36 AM CST, 1 hour 11 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Memphis TN 1136 AM CST Thu Feb 16 2023 ...New AVIATION... .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 324 AM CST Thu Feb 16 2023 Showers and thunderstorms will lift through the Midsouth today, along and ahead of a slow-moving cold front. A few of the thunderstorms may reach severe limits before exiting northeast Mississippi late this afternoon. Damaging winds will be the primary severe weather threat, accompanied by secondary threats of tornadoes, flash flooding and large hail. Following the passage of the cold front today, cooler and less humid weather will prevail over the Midsouth Friday and the weekend. Saturday morning's low temperatures will cool into the 20s over most of the Midsouth. Thereafter, temperatures will gradually each day through Tuesday, when daytime highs reach the 70s. Tuesday's warmth will precede a chance of showers and thunderstorms Tuesday night. && .DISCUSSION... (Today through Wednesday) Issued at 324 AM CST Thu Feb 16 2023 GOES water vapor imagery shows a positively tilted longwave trough over the 4-corners area. Downstream of the trough, southwesterly flow aloft extended from TX through the lower MS River and Ohio River valleys. Divergent flow aloft was evident on thunderstorm anvils over the Midsouth and lower Ohio River Valley. 06Z SHV sounding showed 2300 J/kg of mixed layer CAPE, leading credence to RAP-based SPC mesoanalysis MLCAPE estimate of 2500 J/kg over central AR at 08Z. Closer to home, MLCAPE ranged from 1000-2000 J/kg, per the RAP-based SPC Mesoanalysis page. KNQA VAD hodograph showed 0-3km SRH of 470 m2/s2 at 0735Z. Instability and shear aside, late evening and overnight convection has remained relatively shallow. This may change toward sunrise, with midlevel height falls and the approach of a surface cold front. Tornado warnings have been issued over northwest into north central AR early this morning, just east of a surface low along the cold front. This front will push through the Midsouth today, passing through Memphis by noon, and preceded by one or more convective lines. Today's greatest severe risk will occur over northeast MS where the cold front will intercept afternoon instability and deep layer shear. 06Z HRRR depicts MLCAPE of 1800 J/kg at Tupelo and 0-3km SRH of 250 m2/s2. Flash flooding will be possible, with precipitable water values around 1.7 inches, and storms training along the cold front. Given the saturated soils and elevated streamflows across this area, urban and small stream flooding is quite possible. Following the passage of the cold front late this afternoon, cool and dry continental surface high pressure will settle into the Midsouth. The center of this pressure ridge will settle over the Midsouth, along and east of the MS River Friday night. Dry air and calm winds will set up prime radiational cooling conditions, with Saturday morning's lows forecast to drop into the 20s regionwide. West/southwest zonal flow aloft will prevail from Sunday through early next week. Midsouth surface temperatures will progressively warm through the period, returning to the upper 60s and lower 70s by Tuesday. Modified maritime air will accompany the warmer temperatures, with surface dewpoints in the 50s. Modest convective instability will accompany a passing shortwave trough Tuesday night. The forecast will carry a slight chance of thunderstorms Tuesday night, but at this time, convective parameters appear insufficient for severe storms. PWB && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1117 AM CST Thu Feb 16 2023 Showers and thunderstorms continue to affect areas just east of the Mississippi River ahead and along a cold front. Showers and thunderstorms will spread into the KMKL and KTUP areas. Periods of IFR ceilings ahead of the front will improve to MVFR ceilings behind the front and will continue for the remainder of the forecast period. Winds will be from the south at 10 to 15 knots with higher gusts ahead of the front. Winds behind the front will be mainly from the northwest at 10 to 15 knots and gusty. && .MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None. && PUBLIC FORECAST...PWB AVIATION...ARS
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
932 AM CST THU FEB 16 2023
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0600 AM HEAVY RAIN 2 S GATES 35.82N 89.41W
02/16/2023 M5.35 INCH LAUDERDALE TN COCORAHS
&&
MJPRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
935 AM CST THU FEB 16 2023
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0620 AM HEAVY RAIN 1 E DIXONVILLE 35.43N 89.72W
02/16/2023 M3.11 INCH TIPTON TN COCORAHS
&&
MJPRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
940 AM CST THU FEB 16 2023
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0925 AM HAIL 3 E GREENFIELD 35.68N 90.66W
02/16/2023 E0.88 INCH POINSETT AR TRAINED SPOTTER
NICKEL-SIZED HAIL REPORTED IN THE CENTRAL
COMMUNITY.
&&
MJPRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1117 AM CST THU FEB 16 2023
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
1048 AM FLASH FLOOD 5 SSW PURYEAR 36.38N 88.37W
02/16/2023 HENRY TN TRAINED SPOTTER
WHITLOCK ROAD IMPASSABLE DUE TO FLASH
FLOODING. ODOM ROAD IS WASHED OUT AND
IMPASSABLE.
&&
MJPRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1133 AM CST THU FEB 16 2023
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0620 AM TSTM WND DMG 2 NW CLARKSBURG 35.90N 88.42W
02/16/2023 CARROLL TN EMERGENCY MNGR
NUMEROUS TREE LIMBS DOWN ALONG DOLLAR HILL
ROAD NEAR THE INTERSECTION WITH CARNAL ROAD.
&&
MJPRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1143 AM CST THU FEB 16 2023
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
1141 AM FLASH FLOOD 3 SE TRENTON 35.94N 88.91W
02/16/2023 GIBSON TN EMERGENCY MNGR
SAMMONS ROAD AND HARPERS CHAPEL ROAD ARE
WASHED OUT DUE TO FLASH FLOODING.
&&
MJThe national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
3 thunderstorm wind, 2 tornado. Local standard time, as filed.
Several trees and large branches were knocked down near the Highway 72 and Curtis Road intersection.
The first damage was observed to an area of trees east of Gravestown and just south of Highway 4 West. The tornado quickly intensified and increased in size as it moved east-northeast, approaching the highway. Two high-tension electrical transmission|towers were buckled by the tornado with a third suffering lesser damage. At least 6 wood utility poles were downed along Highway 4 West with significant damage occurring to a grove of hardwood trees. The tornado caused damage to several homes in the Stubbs Hill area west of Ripley. Numerous trees were damaged and roof damage was observed to most of these homes. One home did suffer more significant structural damage when the garage door failed and the resulting wind load caused the ceiling to collapse. Further tree damage was observed as the tornado moved northeast near the intersection of County Road 422 and County Road 427 with minor damage to a couple of mobile homes. Damage was more intermittent as the storm moved across northwest Ripley, but became more widespread as the tornado crossed Highway 15, damaging a gas station and a small retail store. Additional tree damage and sporadic damage to homes were observed northeast of Ripley as the tornado moved across Pocahontas Road and County Road 549, where one injury was reported. Farther northeast along County Road 500, a few utility poles were downed. The last damage to trees was found along County Road 500 near the intersection with County Road 200. This tornado had a path length of 11.1 miles with a maximum path width of 500 yards. Maximum estimated winds were around 125 mph.
The rear flank downdraft of a tornadic supercell caused a swath of tree damage just southeast of the tornado track near Smithville.
Tree damage was noted across the wooded area between the Tombigbee River and the Tennessee Tombigbee Waterway west of Smithville. A swath of trees, approximately 100 yards wide, was uprooted or snapped just north of the end of Durrett Landing Road. The tornado began to weaken and occlude as it crossed Blue Water Creek, resulting in sporadic uprooted trees. Maximum winds were estimated at 90 mph with a maximum path width of 100 yards. Survey information aided by PERiLS drone surveillance.
Trees were knocked down along Highway 25 South near the Itawamba/Monroe county line.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Mississippi in 2023Every state in 2023This day in weather historyThe tornado archive for Mississippi, 2023Warnings in Mississippi, February 2023
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1082555, 1082556, 1082560, 1082558, 1082559.