A storm system and its associated cold front racing across the Great Plains combined with moist southerly flow at the surface resulted in a line of thunderstorms that impacted Middle Tennessee on February 16, 2023. As this line moved into the area that provided abundant wind shear and sufficient instability, they strengthened and quickly turned severe.
Every event with a place to put it. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS OHX wrote it up.
A storm system and its associated cold front racing across the Great Plains combined with moist southerly flow at the surface resulted in a line of thunderstorms that impacted Middle Tennessee on February 16, 2023. As this line moved into the area that provided abundant wind shear and sufficient instability, they strengthened and quickly turned severe. Several reports of large hail and damaging winds were received, and three tornadoes were confirmed across southern Middle Tennessee. While these three tornadoes were weak with 2 EF0s and 1 EF1, they were the first tornadoes in Middle Tennessee since January 1, 2022.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Nashville, TN wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Feb 16, 10:56 AM CST, 59 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Nashville TN 1056 AM CST Thu Feb 16 2023 ...New UPDATE... .UPDATE... Issued at 1056 AM CST Thu Feb 16 2023 Tweaked current hourly temperature, dewpoint, wind speed/wind direction, and sky condition grids blending them with previously forecasted associated hourly gridded late morning through early afternoon hourly values. CONSShort 16/15Z initializing best and depicts most realistically weather pattern evolution through remainder of morning hours as compared to fellow CAMs solutions. Today's latest SPC Convective Outlook as for areal coverage and reasoning has not changed much for mid state region from previous issuance. Current regional temperature trends generally in line with forecasted afternoon highs. Current atmospheric status across our area continues to support previous morning forecast issuance reasoning. Remainder of forecast continues to be on track. Sent out a few minutes ago a refreshed suite of forecast products. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Friday) Issued at 218 AM CST Thu Feb 16 2023 This is turning out to be a very interesting forecast for February! I might have even forgotten for a bit that it is barely mid February. We had a few strong storms overnight with the warm sector but this has transitioned to a heavy rainfall threat at the moment. 06Z sounding had a surface cape of 62 J/KG but a PW of 1.20 inches. Cancelled Watch #34 for our CWA as convection seems to be elevated and HRRR shows the CAPE really dropping off through 10Z. Fully expect additional watches later this morning and afternoon with the very strong cold front. Severe parameters from the 06Z HRRR is very impressive today especially this afternoon and early evening. It has very high shear and helicity through the day. MUCAPE picks up near the Tennessee River by 15/16Z to 1100+ J/KG and spreading to Nashville Metro by 18/20Z of 1200+ J/KG and then dropping to 500-700 J/KG by 23Z. Timing is very challenging as it seems like the potential for severe weather will be through the day. It might be easier to say when it will end and that will be with the cold front. Making an educated guess...the best timing is just out a head and with the front...or from noon west to 6 pm east. Please stay weather aware as all severe weather types of straight line winds...hail...and tornadoes will be possible. The HRRR supercell composite and Significant Tornado Parameter really highlights several areas across middle TN from 18-00Z. Please stay weather aware and please encourage your social network to do the same. Once the cold front passes it will be on the cold side tomorrow with highs in the upper 30s to middle 40s. && .LONG TERM... (Friday Night through next Thursday) Issued at 218 AM CST Thu Feb 16 2023 One item to note is the mixed precipitation just before sunrise Friday morning is no longer in the grids. Dry weather stays around through the weekend with gradual warming. By Sunday highs will be mid 50s to around 60 with mostly sunny skies. The next rain chances will be on Monday with a couple of impulses and a low/trof over Canada. Rain stays in the extended forecast with thunderstorms returning again Tuesday night(ish). && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 538 AM CST Thu Feb 16 2023 It's going to be a stormy day across Middle Tennessee. Storms are already developing across the northwest portion of Middle Tennessee, and more storms will move across the mid state this afternoon with the fropa. Look for ceilings to remain MVFR/IFR thru the TAF period, with LLWS also developing due to the strong near-surface winds. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Nashville 71 34 43 25 / 100 80 0 0 Clarksville 70 33 42 25 / 100 40 0 0 Crossville 64 31 37 20 / 80 100 10 0 Columbia 69 33 42 22 / 100 80 0 0 Cookeville 67 33 38 23 / 90 100 0 0 Jamestown 66 31 37 22 / 90 100 10 0 Lawrenceburg 69 33 41 22 / 100 90 0 0 Murfreesboro 70 34 41 21 / 100 90 0 0 Waverly 68 31 41 24 / 90 40 0 0 && .OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && UPDATE.......JB Wright SHORT TERM...12 LONG TERM....12 AVIATION.....Rose
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Nashville TN 215 AM CST Thu Feb 16 2023 TNZ005>011-023>034-056>066-075-077>080-093>095-170815- Stewart-Montgomery-Robertson-Sumner-Macon-Clay-Pickett-Houston- Humphreys-Dickson-Cheatham-Davidson-Wilson-Trousdale-Smith-Jackson- Putnam-Overton-Fentress-Perry-Hickman-Lewis-Williamson-Maury- Marshall-Rutherford-Cannon-De Kalb-White-Cumberland-Bedford-Coffee- Warren-Grundy-Van Buren-Wayne-Lawrence-Giles- 215 AM CST Thu Feb 16 2023 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Middle Tennessee. .DAY ONE...Today and tonight. Strong to severe storms will be possible this morning through the afternoon hours. Strong to damaging wind gusts will be the primary threat, but isolated tornadoes as well as heavy rain leading to flooding will also be possible. The threat of severe weather will come to an end with the passing of the cold front. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday. No hazardous weather is expected at this time. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation will likely be needed. Please relay any information about observed severe weather to the NWS while following all local and state guidelines. 12
The Ft Campbell radar (KHPX), 53 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 17:55 UTC.
6 hail, 4 thunderstorm wind, 3 flash flood, 3 tornado, 3 flood, 1 lightning. Local standard time, as filed.
Heavy rain in the Dover area forced the evacuation of a daycare along Robertson Hill Road due to flood waters approaching the building. Damages are not known.
Heavy rain in the Dover area forced the closure of Upper Standing Rock Road due to flooding. Damages are not known.
A tornado-warned thunderstorm produced ping pong size hail near Hurricane Mills.
A tornado-warned thunderstorm produced quarter size hail just south of Waverly.
A tornado-warned thunderstorm produced ping pong size hail along Hurricane Creek Road southeast of McEwen.
Heavy rain in the Columbia area caused flash flooding. The Columbia Fire and Rescue shared photos of a flooded parking lot at the Brookwood Apartments near 7th Street and Academy. Damages are not known.
A narrow swath of wind damage affected western and central Waynesboro. A home on Highway 64 West to the west of Longvue Drive was heavily damaged from the roof of a nearby barn blowing into it with wood beams puncturing through the walls of the home and breaking windows. Several trees were also blown down near the home. Further to the east, more trees were blown down along Highway 64 West and South High Street, and a detached carport was turned upside down on Woodtown Street. More trees, power lines, and fences were knocked down on South Main Street with one large tree falling onto a small business and shifting it off its foundation. Damages are estimated.
A home on Highland Place Way in Hermitage was struck by lightning during the afternoon. Firefighters quickly responded after reports were received of fire coming out of the roof. The lightning strike set the attic on fire. Fortunately, firefighters were able to keep the fire from spreading beyond the attic, but the homeowner's second floor was also badly damaged by water. Damages are a rough estimate for the damaged roof, destroyed attic, and water damage to the second floor. Nobody was hurt in the fire.
An EF0 tornado touched down on South Hood Road and moved northeast blowing down numerous trees. More trees were blown down with minor damage to outbuildings on North Bradley Road and Mount Lebanon Road. The worst damage occurred along Granddaddy Road at Gore Road, where numerous large trees were snapped and uprooted and outbuildings damaged. One large tree fell onto a home crushing much of the structure. The tornado apparently lifted south of Robertson Road. Damages are estimated.
An EF0 tornado touched down in Ethridge north of Brewer Road and moved northeast, blowing the storefront off a building on Highway 43. Continuing northeast, the tornado snapped and uprooted numerous trees along Rushing Road and caused minor damage to a few homes and outbuildings. More barns and farm outbuildings were damaged and trees blown down on East Edan Road, Morgan Drive, Tom Lane, and Marcell Falls Road before the tornado lifted west of Cross Road. Damages are estimated.
Ping pong size hail was reported near Triune via Twitter.
A low end EF-1 tornado touched down near Big Rock Creek northwest of Farmington and moved northeast, damaging a barn and blowing down dozens of trees west of Bethbirei Road. A home on Bethbirei Road was damaged by a large uprooted tree falling on it, and several nearby outbuildings were also damaged. Further northeast, dozens more trees were snapped and uprooted south of Wade Brown Road, and an RV was blown over with a horse trailed partially|blown on top of it. A home further east of Wade Brown Road suffered minor exterior damage, while several nearby barns were damaged or destroyed. Other trees and a nearby barn on Stegall Road were heavily damage, with tree limbs and debris from the barn blown up to 600 yards away across adjacent farm fields before the tornado lifted. Damages are estimated.
Three power poles were broken and downed along Highway 64 near Shelbyville due to severe thunderstorm winds. Damages are estimated.
Numerous reports of quarter size hail was received in Shelbyville.
Severe thunderstorm winds downed a tree along Monterey Highway near Yankeetown Church in Sparta. Damages are estimated.
Quarter size hail was reported near Bon Air.
Severe thunderstorm winds downed trees along Mack Floyd Road near Sparta. Damages are estimated.
Heavy rain across Lawrence County flooded nearly all low water crossings and forced their closure. Any damages are not known.
Heavy rain across Marshall County flooded and closed several roads in the county. Any damages are not known.
Heavy rain across White County flooded several roads, rendering them impassable. Any damages are not known.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Tennessee in 2023Every state in 2023This day in weather historyThe tornado archive for Tennessee, 2023Warnings in Tennessee, February 2023
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1070110, 1070111, 1070113, 1070114, 1070115, 1070112, 1070537, 1070117, 1070534, 1070535, 1070105, 1070536, 1070118, 1070119, 1070106, 1070107, 1070108, 1070538, 1070539, 1070540.