Name: Cold in Arizona, February 16 to 17, 2023
Start: 2023-02-16T01:00
End: 2023-02-17T08:00
Location: Arizona

Where it happened

Every event with a place to put it; 2 filed by county or forecast zone are drawn at its center, in a lighter ring. Tap one for its entry below.

Tornadoes
Tropical storms and surge
Floods
Wind
Hail
Winter weather
Heat and drought
Cold
Fire, smoke and dust
Marine and coastal
Other

Open the live radar over this ground

The toll

Deaths: 2
Injuries: 0
Property damage: $5,000
Crop damage: None recorded
Events: 2

Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.

What happened

The episode as NWS TWC wrote it up.

Cold temperatures settled into southeast Arizona on the morning of February 16 after the passage of a winter storm system. While temperatures warmed up the following night, strong winds created cold wind chill conditions into February 17. The Pima County Medical Examiner confirmed that the primary cause of death was hypothermia for two individuals found in the Santa Rita Mountains.

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Tucson, AZ wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Feb 15, 2:04 PM MST, 10 hours 56 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Feb 15, 2:04 PM MST, 10 hours 56 minutes before

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
204 PM MST Wed Feb 15 2023

.SYNOPSIS...Very cold air will settle in across the region tonight
behind a storm system which brought rain and snow to southeast
Arizona. A warming trend will occur into the weekend, with gusty
east winds Friday. Another storm system is expected Sunday into the
middle of next week, resulting in cooler temperatures and a chance
of precipitation.

&&

.DISCUSSION...The rain and snow showers have come to an end across
southeast Arizona this afternoon. This system brought low elevation
snowfall to the eastern half of the forecast area, with several
reports of 1-2" in the Tucson Metro, 3.5" in western Graham County
and 6-12" atop of Mount Lemmon.

Expect very cold air to settle in across the region tonight in the
wake of this system. This will be the coldest air of the winter
season so far and model guidance continues to point towards near
record to record low temperatures Thursday morning in some
locations. A Freeze Warning remains in effect for far western Pima
County in the Ajo area, with a Hard Freeze Warning in effect for the
rest of the lower elevation locations of southeast Arizona. For more
information on the Freeze/Hard Freeze Warnings, please refer to the
PHXNPWTWC Product. Expect morning lows Thursday to be in the lower
to mid 20s across central/eastern Pima and southeast Pinal counties,
and in the teens to lower 20s across Santa Cruz, Cochise, Graham
and Greenlee counties. However, I would not be surprised to see
some morning lows in our typical cold spots to be in the single
digits.

Otherwise, shortwave ridging takes place to end the work week into
the weekend. This will result in a warming trend, with high
temperatures peaking on Saturday at 3-5 degrees above normal. Winds
switch around to an easterly direction from Thursday night through
midday Saturday. Strong and gusty easterly winds will occur (in
locations exposed to east winds) late Thursday night into the early
evening hours Friday before slackening off. Wind speeds of 15-30 mph
and gusts up to 45 mph can be expected.

By Sunday, the ensemble means show an upper level low centered west
of the northern Baja/southern California coast. This system will tap
a subtropical feed out ahead of it and steer this moisture across
southeast Arizona. At this time, the models indicate this moisture
will be on the light side. High temperatures on Sunday lower to 2-3
degrees below seasonal averages.

Monday through the middle of next week, the models move this system
slowly eastward as a strong west coast trough develops. This keeps
our forecast area under a slight chance/chance of precipitation, as
well as cooler temperatures and breezy conditions at times.

&&

.AVIATION...Valid through 17/00Z.
SCT-BKN clouds at 4k-8k ft AGL through 16/03Z then SKC for the
remainder of the period. Greatest cloud coverage will be in Cochise
County. Sfc winds will be west/northwest at 8-12 kts with gusts 15-
20 kts through the evening. Overnight into Thursday winds will be
southeast to northeast 5-10 kts. Aviation discussion not updated for
TAF amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Winds will be northwesterly this afternoon and
evening at 8-12 mph. Dry and cold Thursday morning, with a gradual
warming trend into the weekend. Friday will see breezy easterly
winds with speeds 15-30 mph and gusts up to 45 mph. Another storm
system will approach the region late in the weekend, with increasing
winds and a chance of precipitation Sunday into early next week.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

Freeze Warning from 11 PM this evening to 9 AM MST Thursday for
AZZ501.

Hard Freeze Warning from 11 PM this evening to 9 AM MST Thursday
for AZZ502>509.

&&

DISCUSSION...Zell
AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER...Hardin

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The radar

The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.

Open the radar archive at this moment

Event by event

2 cold/wind chill. Local standard time, as filed.

Cold/Wind Chill, Dragoon/Mule/Huachuca and Santa Rita Mountains

When: February 16, 1:00 AM MST to February 17, 8:00 AM MST
Where: Dragoon/Mule/Huachuca and Santa Rita Mountains forecast zone
Deaths: 2 direct, 0 indirect
Reported by: County Official
Coordinates: 31.834, -110.796 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)

Temperatures fell into the teens during the morning of February 16 with wind chills in the single digits. While air temperatures were not as cold for the next 24 hours, winds increased to 20 to 30 mph with gusts of 50 to 60 mph and created wind chills as cold as the teens into the morning of February 17. The Pima County Medical Examiner confirmed that the primary cause of death was hypothermia for two individuals found in the Santa Rita Mountains.

Cold/Wind Chill, Eastern Cochise County Below 5000 Feet

When: February 16, 3:30 AM MST to 7:30 AM MST
Where: Eastern Cochise County Below 5000 Feet forecast zone
Property damage: $5,000
Reported by: Public
Coordinates: 31.880, -109.751 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)

Cold temperatures below 15 degrees during the early morning hours of February 16 caused several well heads to freeze, causing damage to some in eastern Cochise County. |Record low temperatures were observed at the Bisbee-Douglas Airport (12 degrees) and San Simon (13 degrees).

The people who died

As the offices recorded each death: direct deaths were caused by the weather itself, indirect ones by something it set in motion.

Event	Date	Age	Sex	Where	Kind
Cold/Wind Chill, Dragoon/Mule/Huachuca and Santa Rita Mountains	2023-02-17	52	Female	Outside/Open Areas	Direct
Cold/Wind Chill, Dragoon/Mule/Huachuca and Santa Rita Mountains	2023-02-17	49	Male	Outside/Open Areas	Direct

What these are

Cold/Wind Chill: Cold or wind chill below warning criteria that caused deaths, injuries or damage.

After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.

The same day elsewhere

More

Every storm in Arizona in 2023 Every state in 2023 This day in weather history Warnings in Arizona, February 2023

Sources

NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1083288, 1084048.