Towards the end of severe weather in the area, very deep mixing occurred behind the dryline, leading to strong wind gusts at the surface. The gusts may have also been enhanced by virga/light showers, aiding downward momentum.
Every event with a place to put it; 1 filed by county or forecast zone are drawn at its center, in a lighter ring. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS EAX wrote it up.
Towards the end of severe weather in the area, very deep mixing occurred behind the dryline, leading to strong wind gusts at the surface. The gusts may have also been enhanced by virga/light showers, aiding downward momentum. Multiple non-thunderstorm wind gusts in excess of 58 mph, with multiple damage reports were received, including the KC Metro area.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Kansas City, MO wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Mar 1, 11:25 AM CST, 2 hours 35 minutes earlier.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO 1125 AM CST Wed Mar 1 2023 .Discussion... Issued at 249 AM CST WED MAR 1 2023 Key Messages: - Another powerful storm system will affect the region Thursday night through Friday. A weak cold front will move through the area early Wednesday and that will help cool temperatures down 4-8 degrees across the area. That front will stall to our south and become the baroclinic leaf as the next strong storm system moves into the middle of the country. With the system Thursday night - Friday, there is an unusually high amount of uncertainty due to 1) the variability in the track of the low and 2) the thermal profile during heaviest precipitation. Models are still varying the track of the upper low both spatially and temporally. Looking at 12Z Friday, the deterministic models vary the 500mb low from eastern OK, to central Arkansas, to southwestern MO. This doesn't seem like much but variance greatly affects the thermal profile and the resultant precipitation type and snow amounts. To illustrate this, comparing forecast soundings for Kansas City between the NAM and the GFS shows very different thermal profiles. The NAM, which is further northwest with the upper low and the surface, shows a saturated airmass from surface 30K ft with a nearly isothermal profile at or just below freezing from the surface through about 6K ft. With the intense lift shown by the NAM, this would be pouring heavy wet snow over Kansas City as the atmosphere dynamically cools. The GFS, in contrast, is warmer with several dry-layers through the sounding. This would be some light rain with temperatures in the middle 30s. So the best way to handle this uncertainty remains looking at ensemble data. And even then there is high variance. Ensemble members vary the track of the low from east central AR to NW MO at 12Z Friday. SREF plume diagrams for Kansas city range from several members with zero snow, to an extreme of 20+", and a mean around 7". The key things the ensembles show is the strength of the system. The NAEFS Standardized Anomaly plots continue to indicate a very strong surface low pressure area 4-5 standard deviations below normal over southeastern MO at 12Z. The 850mb and 700mb low also show a 4-5 standard deviation below normal over southern MO with a 3-4 standard deviation below normal 500mb low just slightly displaced northward from the lower-levels. ECMWF extreme forecast index continues to point to snow amounts in the 60 to 80 percentile for reforecast period of 2002-2023. Meaning the ECMWF ensembles are showing a good chance for snow compared to the reforecast period. And the shift of tails remains positive showing that at least 10% of its ensemble members are above the 99th percentile. With all that said, this remains a powerful storm system moving across Missouri. It will have the potential, if the track, timing, and temperatures cool enough via dynamic cooling, to produce heavy wet snow for some of the area. It could also stay too warm and we just get a cold rain. We're talking about 1-2 degrees, not just at the surface, but through the lowest several thousand feet of the atmosphere being the difference between a lot of snow and no snow. These details can't be worked out with much confidence at this point this system is still 50+ hours out. Given the likelihood of having a strong area of low pressure move just south of the forecast area, the one aspect of this forecast that has high confidence is the potential for strong winds. Models suggest a pressure gradient of at least 50 ubars/km as the low tracks by. This would support sustained winds approaching advisory levels. The more uncertain part is just how strong the wind gusts may be. The strongest gusts will reside just northwest of the surface low. And given the variability in the track there remains a lot of uncertainty with the strongest gusts. Gusts have the potential to be in the 40 to 50 mph range. In the wake of this system, the rest of the forecast looks relatively quiet with no strong systems affecting the area. There is a weak shortwave that tracks through the middle of the country Sunday night into Monday, but temperatures will be well above normal and precipitation chance look fairly low currently. Another disturbance may move through Tuesday into Wednesday, brining another small chance for precipitation. && .Aviation...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday Afternoon) Issued at 1123 AM CST WED MAR 1 2023 Quiet VFR TAF expected. Winds will gradually turn back to the northeast by tonight and will gradually increase. Gusts up to 20 knots will be possible overnight. && .EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...NONE. MO...NONE. && Discussion...CDB Aviation...HB
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO 453 AM CST Wed Mar 1 2023 KSZ025-057-060-102>105-MOZ001>008-011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040- 043>046-053-054-021100- Atchison KS-Miami-Linn KS-Doniphan-Leavenworth-Wyandotte-Johnson KS- Atchison MO-Nodaway-Worth-Gentry-Harrison-Mercer-Putnam-Schuyler- Holt-Andrew-De Kalb-Daviess-Grundy-Sullivan-Adair-Buchanan-Clinton- Caldwell-Livingston-Linn MO-Macon-Platte-Clay-Ray-Carroll-Chariton- Randolph-Jackson-Lafayette-Saline-Howard-Cass-Johnson MO-Pettis- Cooper-Bates-Henry- 453 AM CST Wed Mar 1 2023 This hazardous weather outlook is for northwest...north central and west central Missouri...as well as extreme eastern Kansas. .DAY ONE...Today and Tonight No hazardous weather is expected at this time. More detailed information can be accessed at... https://www.weather.gov/eax/hwo .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday Rain is expected to changeover to snow or a rain-snow mix Thursday night into Friday morning. Accumulating snowfall is possible but will be highly dependent on Friday morning temperatures. Strong winds will develop Friday morning with sustained winds of 25 to 30 mph and gusts up to 45 mph. More detailed information can be accessed at... https://www.weather.gov/eax/hwo
The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
1 high wind. Local standard time, as filed.
KOJC, Olathe Johnson County Industrial Airport, reported a 61 mph wind gust. There was also plenty of tree and power line damage in the area, which likely spread to other nearby counties.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Kansas in 2023Every state in 2023This day in weather historyWarnings in Kansas, March 2023
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1090583.