NWS Philadelphia/Mount Holly wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jun 12, 2:15 PM EST, 2 hours 5 minutes earlier.
Area forecast discussion, Jun 12, 2:15 PM EST, 2 hours 5 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
315 PM EDT Mon Jun 12 2023
.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure tracks across the eastern Great Lakes region through
tonight, with a cold front crossing our area by later tonight. Weak
high pressure arrives for Tuesday, then an upper-level low arrives
during Wednesday. A cold front moves through later Thursday, however
it should stall to our south Friday into Saturday. Low pressure
along the front may then move across our area over the weekend into
early next week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Showers and thunderstorms ahead of a developing area of low pressure
and associated cold front are moving through the area this
afternoon. The potential for a few strong to severe thunderstorms
remains as mesoanalysis as of 19z shows a tongue of instability
extending from Delmarva into SE PA and Southern NJ. This coincides
with the location of the Slight Risk (2/5) from the Storm Prediction
Center (SPC). The limiting factors appear to be weak mid-level lapse
rates and effective shear around 30 kt or less. While the entire
region has the potential to see severe weather, the highest
probability lies basically from the Philadelphia metropolitan area
on south. Main threats are damaging winds and hail up to an inch in
diameter. A tornado cannot be ruled out, especially over Delmarva
and southern New Jersey.
In terms of the flooding aspect of this event...the 12z IAD sounding
shows a skinny CAPE profile with a PWAT value around 1.6 inches.
This is over the 90th percentile for mid-June. The freezing level
was shown to be around 12,000 feet, and with a low LCL, we are
looking at a warm cloud layer over 10k feet. This does indicate the
flooding potential for today, though storm motion will be relatively
quick. However, some of the short range guidance does show multiple
rounds of showers/thunderstorms for some spots, so we continue to
monitor the flooding threat. While it is true that our area has not
seen much rainfall in over a month, this could also work against us
in terms of runoff. With such a dry surface, most of the rain may
not seep into the surface, similar to what we saw at the end of
April.
Showers and thunderstorms will quickly exit the region by the late
evening, with skies clearing out a bit for most after midnight.
Drier air looks to lag behind the front, but the 12z suite of
guidance backed off on a prolonged period of patchy fog in the wake
of the front. Still looks like a brief period of patchy fog is
possible, especially in more rural areas, but thinking most spots
are mostly clear by daybreak or so. Overnight lows will be in the
mid to upper 50s with some spots staying in the low 60s.
A relatively quiet Tuesday is ahead. The closed low over Michigan
will slowly progress east, but the entire area looks to be in a dry
slot for the day. Temperatures will rise into the upper 70s/low 80s.
Winds will be out of the west around 10-15 MPH or so with gusts
nearing 20-25 MPH.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Additional opportunity for some much needed rain for at least some
areas primarily during Wednesday.
A closed closed centered over the eastern Great Lakes Tuesday night
will shift eastward Wednesday and be across southern New England by
early Wednesday evening. It then exits northern New England and
weakens some overnight Wednesday night into Thursday evening. The
western portion of the larger scale upper-level trough however is
forecast to amplify across the Great Lakes Thursday as a stronger
shortwave drops southeastward.
The arrival of the closed low, centered just to our north, during
Wednesday will result in destabilization taking place as colder air
aloft overspreads our area. The cyclonic flow aloft, plenty of
shortwave energy arriving and a weak surface cold front will all
result in enough large scale ascent to produce showers especially in
the afternoon and evening Wednesday. The most widespread showers
should be across our northern areas closest to the core of the
closed low. Given the colder air aloft and decent boundary layer
heating, instability should become sufficient for the development of
some thunderstorms. The freezing level will be lower due to the
colder air aloft, therefore some small hail is possible with any
stronger convective cores. In addition, the model forecast soundings
show an inverted-V signature in place due to steepening low-level
lapse rates (well mixed boundary layer) and this could result in
some locally gusty winds. As of now, we are not anticipating any
severe weather. Showers and some thunderstorms are forecast to end
during Wednesday night as the closed low moves into New England and
due to the loss of daytime heating. Temperatures overall look to be
close to average, although much more cloud cover would temper the
warming some.
As we go through Thursday, the aforementioned closed low exiting
northern New England is forecast to weaken, however the trough
becomes more amplified over the Great Lakes as additional shortwave
energy drops down out of Canada. This will maintain a trough present
in the East, and with this amplifying trough another cold front is
forecast to cross our area later Thursday. Some showers and thunder
are possible mainly later Thursday and Thursday night. Given the
timing of the front (passed peak heating) and uncertainty with the
coverage of showers/thunder, continued to keep the PoPs on the lower
side. Temperatures overall look to be close to average for this time
of year.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Summary...Potentially unsettled at times as a few systems move
through.
Synoptic Overview...An upper-level trough across much of eastern
Canada and the Northeast/Mid-Atlantic is forecast to start weakening
and lift out Friday night and especially Saturday. Another upper-
level trough is then forecast to slide east-southeastward across the
Great Lakes and Ohio Valley Sunday then across the Mid-Atlantic
region into Monday. At the surface, a cold front is forecast to
stall to our south into Friday. Low pressure may develop along the
tailend of the front as the aformentioned new upper-level trough
shifts eastward. This low is forecast to cross our area during
mainly the second half of the weekend into Monday.
For Friday...An upper-level trough should be pivoting across our
area during the day before it starts to lift out at night. The
amplitude of this trough will determine if additional convection
develops with daytime heating. Given the uncertainty with the
coverage of showers/thunder, continued to keep the PoPs on the lower
side. The late Thursday cold front should continue to settle to our
south and east and eventually stall. Temperatures overall look to be
close to average for this time of year.
For Saturday through Monday...The aforementioned upper-level trough
lifts out into Saturday with some weak mid level ridging approaching
from the west. A front is forecast to be stalled to our south, and
with the next shortwave trough arriving from the Midwest to upper
Ohio Valley, a surface low is forecast to develop along the tailend
of the front. There are still some differences among the guidance on
the amplitude and positioning of this shortwave trough, and
therefore the strengthen and track of the surface low. It does
appear that a system will be arriving sometime over the weekend into
early next week, however the details are still much less certain at
this time range. As a result, kept the PoPs on the lower side.
Temperatures overall look to remain close to average.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas...
Rest of Today...sub-VFR conditions with periods of showers and
thunderstorms moving through. Winds will be out of the south/southeast
around 10 kt with gusts nearing 20 kt. Higher gusts possible in
any convection. Moderate confidence.
Tonight...sub-VFR conditions to start with showers and thunderstorms
continuing. Conditions improve back to VFR by daybreak, though some
patchy fog is possible once storms move out. A cold front will
result in winds becoming westerly around 10 kt or so late this
evening. Low confidence.
Tuesday...VFR. West/Northwest winds around 10 kt with gusts nearing
20 kt. Moderate confidence.
Outlook...
Tuesday night...VFR. Southwest to south winds around 5 knots to
locally light and variable. Moderate confidence.
Wednesday...Some showers and thunderstorms, mainly in the afternoon
and evening, can result in times of sub-VFR conditions. Otherwise,
VFR. Southwest to west winds 8-12 knots. Moderate confidence.
Thursday and Friday...A few showers and thunderstorms possible each
day, otherwise VFR. West to northwest winds generally around 10
knots. Moderate confidence.
Saturday...VFR. West-northwest winds around 10 knots. Moderate
confidence.
&&
.MARINE...
No marine headlines are anticipated. Showers and thunderstorms along
the waters are likely through the late evening. Southerly winds this
afternoon and evening around 15 kt with gusts nearing 20 kt will
become westerly after midnight, remaining around 10-20 kt. Seas 2 to
4 feet.
Outlook...
Tuesday night through Saturday...The conditions are anticipated
to below Small Craft Advisory criteria.
Rip Currents...
Through this evening, south to southeast winds 15 to 20 mph
with gusts up to 25 mph into this evening. This, along with a
lingering long period southeasterly swell will result in a
MODERATE risk for the development of dangerous rip currents at
New Jersey and Delaware beaches.
Tuesday, winds turn offshore at 10 to 15 mph, though late day
sea breezes are possible. This will result in a LOW risk for the
development of dangerous rip currents at the Delaware beaches,
but a MODERATE risk at the New Jersey beaches.
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NJ...None.
DE...None.
MD...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
SYNOPSIS...Gorse
NEAR TERM...Hoeflich
SHORT TERM...Gorse
LONG TERM...Gorse
AVIATION...Gorse/Hoeflich
MARINE...Gorse/Hoeflich