Arkansas, 2023

Hail in Arkansas, February 16, 2023

February 16, 2023 · NWS MEG · 1 event in 1 county or zone

A warm front lifted north of the area and warm, moist, and unstable air flowed into the Mid-South during the morning hours of February 16, 2023. A strong upper-level jet streak across the Great Lakes produced ascent across the Mid-South resulting in showers and thunderstorms with heavy rainfall and flash flooding across West Tennessee.

Where it happened

Every event with a place to put it. Tap one for its entry below.

  • Tornadoes
  • Tropical storms and surge
  • Floods
  • Wind
  • Hail
  • Winter weather
  • Heat and drought
  • Cold
  • Fire, smoke and dust
  • Marine and coastal
  • Other

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The toll

Deaths
0
Injuries
0
Property damage
None recorded
Crop damage
None recorded
Events
1

Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.

What happened

The episode as NWS MEG wrote it up.

A warm front lifted north of the area and warm, moist, and unstable air flowed into the Mid-South during the morning hours of February 16, 2023. A strong upper-level jet streak across the Great Lakes produced ascent across the Mid-South resulting in showers and thunderstorms with heavy rainfall and flash flooding across West Tennessee. Later in the day as the cold front approached, thunderstorms intensified and produced a few tornadoes across northeast Mississippi.

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Memphis, TN wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Feb 16, 5:40 AM CST, 3 hours 45 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Feb 16, 5:40 AM CST, 3 hours 45 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
540 AM CST Thu Feb 16 2023

...New AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 324 AM CST Thu Feb 16 2023

Showers and thunderstorms will lift through the Midsouth today,
along and ahead of a slow-moving cold front. A few of the
thunderstorms may reach severe limits before exiting northeast
Mississippi late this afternoon. Damaging winds will be the
primary severe weather threat, accompanied by secondary threats of
tornadoes, flash flooding and large hail.

Following the passage of the cold front today, cooler and less
humid weather will prevail over the Midsouth Friday and the
weekend. Saturday morning's low temperatures will cool into the
20s over most of the Midsouth. Thereafter, temperatures will
gradually each day through Tuesday, when daytime highs reach the
70s. Tuesday's warmth will precede a chance of showers and
thunderstorms Tuesday night.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 324 AM CST Thu Feb 16 2023

GOES water vapor imagery shows a positively tilted longwave
trough over the 4-corners area. Downstream of the trough,
southwesterly flow aloft extended from TX through the lower MS
River and Ohio River valleys. Divergent flow aloft was evident on
thunderstorm anvils over the Midsouth and lower Ohio River Valley.
06Z SHV sounding showed 2300 J/kg of mixed layer CAPE, leading
credence to RAP-based SPC mesoanalysis MLCAPE estimate of 2500
J/kg over central AR at 08Z. Closer to home, MLCAPE ranged from
1000-2000 J/kg, per the RAP-based SPC Mesoanalysis page. KNQA VAD
hodograph showed 0-3km SRH of 470 m2/s2 at 0735Z.

Instability and shear aside, late evening and overnight convection
has remained relatively shallow. This may change toward sunrise, with
midlevel height falls and the approach of a surface cold front.
Tornado warnings have been issued over northwest into north
central AR early this morning, just east of a surface low along
the cold front. This front will push through the Midsouth today,
passing through Memphis by noon, and preceded by one or more
convective lines. Today's greatest severe risk will occur over
northeast MS where the cold front will intercept afternoon
instability and deep layer shear. 06Z HRRR depicts MLCAPE of 1800
J/kg at Tupelo and 0-3km SRH of 250 m2/s2. Flash flooding will be
possible, with precipitable water values around 1.7 inches, and
storms training along the cold front. Given the saturated soils
and elevated streamflows across this area, urban and small stream
flooding is quite possible.

Following the passage of the cold front late this afternoon, cool
and dry continental surface high pressure will settle into the
Midsouth. The center of this pressure ridge will settle over the
Midsouth, along and east of the MS River Friday night. Dry air and
calm winds will set up prime radiational cooling conditions, with
Saturday morning's lows forecast to drop into the 20s regionwide.

West/southwest zonal flow aloft will prevail from Sunday through
early next week. Midsouth surface temperatures will progressively
warm through the period, returning to the upper 60s and lower 70s
by Tuesday. Modified maritime air will accompany the warmer
temperatures, with surface dewpoints in the 50s. Modest convective
instability will accompany a passing shortwave trough Tuesday
night. The forecast will carry a slight chance of thunderstorms
Tuesday night, but at this time, convective parameters appear
insufficient for severe storms.

PWB

&&

.AVIATION...(12Z TAFS) Issued at 532 AM CST Thu Feb 16 2023

Prevailing rain/TS looks to be shifting out of MEM at 12z however
another line of storms is approaching from east Arkansas. This
line associated with a cold front will likely result in brief IFR
to LIFR conditions due to low vis at JBR in the next hour or two
and at MEM between 13 and 15z. Ongoing rain/TS ar MKL will be
followed by a second round before midday. Expect gusty west to
north wind behind the front. A broad trough will remain across
the Midsouth today and tonight resulting persistent MVFR clouds.

30/Sirmon

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&

PUBLIC FORECAST...PWB
AVIATION...JDS

In the hours before

Local storm report, Feb 16, 8:48 AM CST, 37 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
848 AM CST THU FEB 16 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0600 AM     FLASH FLOOD      1 N GLEASON             36.23N 88.61W
02/16/2023                   WEAKLEY            TN   EMERGENCY MNGR

            OLD HIGHWAY 22 IMPASSABLE IN AREAS NEAR
            GLEASON. FLASH FLOODING CONTINUES.

&&

MJ
Local storm report, Feb 16, 8:56 AM CST, 29 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
856 AM CST THU FEB 16 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0600 AM     FLASH FLOOD      4 NW BRADFORD           36.12N 88.86W
02/16/2023                   GIBSON             TN   EMERGENCY MNGR

            JACK SPENCE ROAD IS CLOSED DUE TO FLOODING.

&&

MJ
Local storm report, Feb 16, 9:09 AM CST, 16 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
909 AM CST THU FEB 16 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0907 AM     FLASH FLOOD      1 W DYER                36.07N 89.02W
02/16/2023                   GIBSON             TN   PUBLIC

            WIDESPREAD FLOODING IN THE DYER AREA. OLD
            DYER YORKVILLE ROAD WAS IMPASSABLE.

&&

MJ
Local storm report, Feb 16, 9:17 AM CST, 8 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
917 AM CST THU FEB 16 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0900 AM     HEAVY RAIN       3 ESE DRESDEN           36.25N 88.64W
02/16/2023  M3.52 INCH       WEAKLEY            TN   MESONET

            MESONET STATION DRST1 3.2 NW GLEASON.

&&

MJ
Local storm report, Feb 16, 9:20 AM CST, 5 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
920 AM CST THU FEB 16 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0919 AM     HEAVY RAIN       1 SW EATON              35.96N 89.14W
02/16/2023  M4.46 INCH       CROCKETT           TN   MESONET

            RIVER GAUGE ON THE MIDDLE FORK OF THE FORKED
            DEER RIVER.

&&

MJ
Local storm report, Feb 16, 9:23 AM CST, 2 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
923 AM CST THU FEB 16 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0922 AM     HEAVY RAIN       3 ESE DRESDEN           36.26N 88.64W
02/16/2023  M4.93 INCH       WEAKLEY            TN   MESONET

            RIVER GAUGE ON THE MIDDLE FORK OF THE OBION
            RIVER.

&&

MJ

The radar

The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.

Open the radar archive at this moment

Event by event

1 hail. Local standard time, as filed.

Hail, Poinsett

When
February 16, 9:25 AM CST to 9:30 AM CST
Where
Poinsett County, 2.24 mi W of Huskey
Measured
0.88 in hail
Reported by
Trained Spotter
Coordinates
35.675, -90.659

Nickel-sized hail fell in the Central Community.

What these are

Hail
Hail three-quarters of an inch or larger, or smaller hail that caused damage, filed with the largest stone measured.

After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.

The same day elsewhere

More

Every storm in Arkansas in 2023Every state in 2023This day in weather historyWarnings in Arkansas, February 2023

Sources

NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1082552.