Damaging Wind and High Wind in Texas, October 10, 2021

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
1257 PM CDT Sun Oct 10 2021

.AVIATION...
An approaching and passing storm system will bring strong winds
and a chance from convection to the terminals this afternoon into
this evening. Currently a quasi-stationary front is stretching
from near Littlefield to Plainview and Childress. South of the
front, strong southwesterly winds are advancing across the South
Plains and will affect KLBB shortly. Winds will become sustained
at 25 to 30 knots, possibly higher, and an AWW could be needed for
KLBB later this afternoon. The winds could also loft a little
dust, though we don't expect sub-VFR conditions at this time.
Further north, both KPVW and KCDS will be near the front through
mid-afternoon, meaning winds will be lighter, though their
direction is not certain. Regardless, the front will surge
southeastward mid-late afternoon, supplying strong/gusty
northwesterly winds to all the terminals late this afternoon into
early this evening, before gradually decreasing overnight. North
of the front, elevated showers and thunderstorms will be possible
through early evening, with KPVW and KCDS most likely to be
impacted by this activity. Rainfall will be limited, but any
showers could locally enhance the winds, with gusts to 45+ knots
possible. Lastly, a brief period of MVFR cigs will be possible
behind the FROPA this evening, though confidence is fairly low.
VFR and lighter winds will prevail at the terminals after 06Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 1206 PM CDT Sun Oct 10 2021/

UPDATE...
We have expanded the Wind Advisory, which goes into effect at 2
PM, to include the central and southern Rolling Plains (in
addition to the central and southern South Plains), while also
extending it in time until 01Z (8 PM).

We have also expanded the Fire Danger Statement (RFD), which goes
into effect at noon, to include King County (in addition to the
rest of the central and southern South and Rolling Plains), and
extended it in time until 01Z (8 PM).

The overall forecast remains on track with a potent shortwave
currently approaching through New Mexico. This compact system will
race across the CWA this afternoon and early evening, before
exiting to the east. Lift from this system has already generated
plenty of cloud cover and maybe even a few sprinkles across our
northwestern and north-central zones this morning. Of greater
impact will be strong winds that this system will carry across the
region through the afternoon and evening. The strongest westerly
winds will occur south of a decent cold front that is roughly
bisecting the FA at the moment. The front won't move much through
mid-afternoon as strong surface cyclogenesis occurs. South of the
front, deep mixing will tap a 35-40+ knot 850 mb jet spreading
from west-to-east across the central and southern South/Rolling
Plains through the afternoon, yielding widespread westerly winds
of 25 to 35 mph, with gusts to 45+ mph. These strong and dry
westerly winds will loft pockets of blowing dust and create
elevated to critical fire weather through the afternoon. The winds
will turn northwesterly as the deepening surface low shifts to
our east, causing the stalled front to regain momentum and surge
southeastward late this afternoon into the evening. Northwesterly
winds could also briefly venture to advisory levels, especially
where enhanced by outflow from any showers tracking across the
southern Texas Panhandle and northern South Plains. Given all
these factors, it appears winds could stay near/above advisory
levels slightly beyond sunset, before gradually diminishing.

North of the front, showers and isolated t-storms are expected to
traverse the southern Texas Panhandle and northern South Plains
this afternoon, exiting the southeast Texas Panhandle by mid-late
evening. This activity will be collocated with the passing cold
core low, in a strongly forced but moisture-limited environment.
There could be just enough mid-level cold air and instability for
small hail production with the most intense cores, though the
greatest threat will be the enhancement to the already strong
northwesterly winds. A few severe wind gusts definitely aren't out
of the question through early this evening. Things will finally
quiet down by late this evening as the system pulls away into
Oklahoma.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 312 AM CDT Sun Oct 10 2021/

SHORT TERM...
Early morning upper air analysis indicates an intense mid-level
shortwave trough pivoting over the Desert Southwest and a 500 mb
closed low located over the northern Great Plains. Ahead of this
approaching shortwave trough, a developing cold front was located
across the Texas Panhandle and into east-central New Mexico as per
recent West Texas Mesonet and regional METAR data, with a narrow
band of mid-level moisture collocated with the front. Meanwhile, a
strong low-level jet exists over the CWA (40 kt as low as 400 ft AGL
detected on SODAR and WSR-88D VWP data), with breezy conditions at
the surface. The aforementioned pair of mid/upper-level systems will
cause the strengthening cold front to move southward later this
morning, with the closed low over the northern Great Plains bending
northeastward as the core of the mid-level shortwave digs directly
over the CWA by this afternoon. The cold front is expected to stall
this afternoon in the vicinity of a line from Muleshoe to near
Paducah as the mid-level jet streak near 90 kt passes overhead,
resulting in surface cyclogenesis of a 996-998 mb low in the South
Plains with intense vertical mixing expected which will translate
the wind speeds observed a few hundred feet AGL this morning to the
surface. The position of the stalled cold front this after will also
augment an impressive temperature gradient, ranging from the upper
60s across the extreme southwestern Texas Panhandle into the lower
90s in the southeastern Rolling Plains.

A substantial wind shift will occur in vicinity of the cold front,
with westerly surface winds increasing into Wind Advisory criteria
in areas across the southern and western South Plains. Sustained
winds will peak in intensity this afternoon at around 30 mph with
gusts up to 45 mph at times, and a Wind Advisory will be in effect
from 19Z-11/00Z (2 PM CDT to 7 PM CDT). Blustery conditions can be
expected across the extreme southern TX PH, and the northern South
and Rolling Plains as the front begins to surge southward late in
the afternoon. The cold front should bend southward on the Caprock
late in the afternoon as well as the mid-level shortwave trough
ejects over the south-central Great Plains (i.e. no geostrophy to
impede its movement thereafter).

The deepening mid/upper-level cold core low will result in bands of
wrap-around, non-surface based (elevated) convection across the
extreme southern Texas Panhandle, and into portions of the northern
South and Rolling Plains this afternoon. Depending on where the core
of the mid/upper-level cyclone pivots will dictate potential
precipitation placement, and moist, isentropic ascent should be
quite scant throughout the 290-320 K theta surfaces except near the
southern TX PH where mid-level FGEN is greatest. While MUCAPE
profiles will be skeletal and generally <=150 J/kg, the magnitude of
cloud-layer flow and very cold mid-level temperatures may favor the
production of small hail within the best-organized multi-cellular
convective clusters along with the potential for downburst up to 50
mph given the very dry sub-cloud layer with LCLs at around 7,000 ft
AGL. The only area of real interest for convection this afternoon is
across the extreme southeastern TX PH, particularly Childress
County, where the early stage development of fast-moving supercells
will be possible depending on the position of the dryline which will
be in very close proximity to the 100th meridian before the Pacific
front overtakes it. However, the residence time of STG-SVR storms in
Childress County will be greatly limited owing to a mean wind storm
motion vector of 220/55 kt (from the southwest at 60 mph).

Conditions will rapidly improve after midnight tonight. Winds will
shift to the northwest altogether tonight as the cold front clears
the CWA, remaining blustery until this time tomorrow morning before
the pressure gradient loosens, with winds diminishing to below 10
mph area-wide. The combination of strong cold air advection
initially followed by excellent radiational cooling will cause
temperatures to plummet into the upper 30s/lower 40s across the
extreme southwestern TX PH and western South Plains, and into the
lower 50s across the Rolling Plains by Monday morning.

Sincavage

LONG TERM...
The main weather system this week is still expected to affect the
area from Tuesday into early Wednesday. Short wave ridging will move
overhead on Monday before the approach of the next upper level storm
system. Winds will swing back around to the south with surface
troughing developing in lee of the Rockies on Monday afternoon. This
will again bring breezy conditions to the area.

Regarding the system that will affect the area beginning on Tuesday,
the slower solution is still favored over the operational GFS
guidance. Early in the morning on Tuesday, moist isentropic lift may
create some light rain showers off the caprock. The upper system
will provide for us another windy day on Tuesday afternoon with a
dryline mixing well off the caprock. Strong surface cyclogenesis in
lee of the Rockies will occur as this system moves across the
Intermountain West. Fortunately, the strongest winds aloft will be
delayed until the evening and displaced to the northwest of the
area. Nonetheless, the strongest winds during the afternoon will be
over the extreme southwestern Texas Panhandle. During the evening,
the dryline will retreat in classic fashion and will eventually be
overtaken by a Pacific cold front. Strong low level moisture
advection east of the dryline will set up a chance for significant
convection late on Tuesday into early Wednesday as the front moves
through. The cold front will provide the necessary lift for
convection to develop which is expected to mostly affect areas off
the caprock.

Cyclonic flow aloft will continue after Tuesday with long wave
troughing over the Intermountain West into the Central Plains. The
next yet to be named eastern Pacific tropical system will be swept
up into this flow later this week. We could see some increased
precipitation chances, especially in the Rolling Plains, as the
remnants from this system move across central Texas.

FIRE WEATHER...
Elevated to near-critical fire weather conditions are expected
across the southern South Plains and portions of the southwestern
Rolling Plains today. A strong cold front will move in from the
north and stall along a line from near Muleshoe to Paducah,
resulting in a significant wind shift in its vicinity. Across areas
south of the front (i.e. the southern South Plains), westerly winds
will increase to around 25-30 mph with gusts up to 45 mph at times
this afternoon as intense vertical mixing occurs. A Wind Advisory is
in effect for the southern South Plains between 2 PM and 7 PM CDT
this afternoon. Minimum relative humidity values will fall to as low
as 15 percent, and remaining in the lower 20 percent range and lower
across all areas south of the front. However, fuel moisture will
remain well-behaved as moisture levels are at normal, and will
preclude issuance of a Red Flag Warning. Minimum RH values north of
the stalled cold front will remain above 30 percent. The front will
finally begin to move south and southeastward late in the afternoon,
with winds shifting to the northwest across the Caprock and Rolling
Plains towards 7 PM CDT at around 20-30 mph with gusts to 40 mph.
Winds will steadily diminish in intensity after dark, decreasing to
around 15 mph by midnight CDT and below 10 mph during the early
morning hours Monday while remaining out of the northwest.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for TXZ027-033>044.

&&

23/01/23

Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
1135 AM CDT Sun Oct 10 2021

TXZ021>044-111645-
Parmer-Castro-Swisher-Briscoe-Hall-Childress-Bailey-Lamb-Hale-Floyd-
Motley-Cottle-Cochran-Hockley-Lubbock-Crosby-Dickens-King-Yoakum-
Terry-Lynn-Garza-Kent-Stonewall-
1135 AM CDT Sun Oct 10 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the South Plains, Rolling
Plains and the far Southern Texas Panhandle.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

A strong cold front will roughly bisect the South Plains region, from
west to east, this afternoon. South of the stalled front, sustained
westerly winds of 25 to 35 mph, with gusts to 45 mph, will affect
the central and southern South Plains and Rolling Plains this
afternoon. A Wind Advisory is in effect for this area from 2 PM to 8
PM. In addition to lofting pockets of blowing dust, the strong, dry
and warm winds will create elevated to critical fire weather. A Fire
Danger Statement is in effect for the central and southern South and
Rolling Plains from noon until 8 PM.

Shower and thunderstorm chances will exist along and north of the
cold front, mainly across the southern Texas Panhandle this afternoon
and evening. Localized downpours and small hail will be possible, in
addition to the potential for strong and erratic surface wind gusts
in excess of 50 mph. A slim chance for a severe thunderstorm also
exists across Childress County as storms form along the intersection
of the cold front and dryline late this afternoon before racing off
into Oklahoma.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Thunderstorm will again be possible Tuesday afternoon into early
Wednesday. A few storms may be strong to severe.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected today.