The combination of an upper level disturbance and weak instability caused scattered thunderstorms to develop. a few storms were severe.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS SJT wrote it up.
The combination of an upper level disturbance and weak instability caused scattered thunderstorms to develop. a few storms were severe.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS San Angelo, TX wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Oct 10, 3:38 PM CST, 1 hour 23 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Angelo TX 438 PM CDT Sun Oct 10 2021 ...New MESOSCALE UPDATE... .MESOSCALE UPDATE... Issued at 438 PM CDT Sun Oct 10 2021 An eastward moving dryline stretched from near Snyder south through just west of Sterling City and southwest through Iraan, with visible satellite showing flat cumulus having developed along it. Ahead of the dryline, surface based CAPE of roughly 1000-2000 J/KG existed (more instability in the eastern counties compared to the rest of the forecast area). Meanwhile, effective shear was pretty high east of the dry-line... around 60+ KT. RAP forecast soundings over the next few hours in the eastern and northeastern counties... roughly east of a Haskell to Bronte line... showed a veering wind profile conducive to supercellular structures, and a mid-level capping inversion breaking by around 6 pm. By that time, surface based CAPE in those areas could exceeed 3000 J/KG. According to the HRRR, which has been consistent from run to run and seems to show a reasonable solution, storms are expected to initiate from near San Angelo northeast through Haskell by 6 pm as the cap breaks and dry-line convergence increases, with coverage and intensity of storms increasing roughly east of a Haskell to Bronte line, where large hail, damaging winds and a tornado or two will be possible through around 8 or 9 pm before storms move east. && .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Monday) Issued at 130 PM CDT Sun Oct 10 2021 Early this afternoon, a strong shortwave was progressing rapidly across New Mexico into the Texas Panhandle. A surface low has developed around Lubbock and will continue northeastward. A cold front was also making it's way southward through the Panhandle, while a dryline over the South Plains and Permian Basin will continue mixing eastward through west central Texas this evening. As the dryline mixes eastward this afternoon, much drier air will move in behind it, which, when combined with winds gusting over 30 mph, may lead to Elevated fire weather danger this afternoon. By late this afternoon and early evening, it appears that a few thunderstorms will initiate along the dryline over our southeast counties. Some brief gusty winds or small hail will be possible with this activity before it pushes southeastward into the Hill Country overnight. For the rest of the night the cooler and drier air will make it's presence known with lows in the low 50s expected under clear skies. Tomorrow, the system is expected to move out of our area, followed by cool high pressure. This will allow for sunny and dry conditions across the area with high temperatures only reaching the mid 80s. && .LONG TERM... (Monday night through next Sunday) Issued at 139 PM CDT Sun Oct 10 2021 An active weather pattern continues this week. A large upper low will center itself over the 4-corners region/Central Rocky Mountains Tuesday into Wednesday, bringing several disturbances over West Central Texas...in southwest flow aloft. Low level moisture returns rapidly ahead of this system, with dew points in the 60s Tuesday, and enough instability may be available to isolated severe storms. SPC day 3 convective outlook has a slight risk of severe storms in the Big Country north of I-20 Tuesday/Tuesday night. The remnants of Tropical depression Sixteen-E south of Mexico today, may move northeast into Texas Wednesday night into Thursday, bringing additional showers and thunderstorms, some possibly heavy rainfall. Areas along/east of a Sonora to Brownwood line are have be best chance of heavy rainfall...with general amounts of 1 to 2 inches and locally heavier amounts. There is always uncertainly 3 to 5 days out, but the models continue to have good agreement and continuity. Temperatures later this week will be cooler, especially by Friday, where temperatures decrease to highs in the 70s. Lows in the 40s are expected Saturday night. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1210 PM CDT Sun Oct 10 2021 VFR with strong southwesterly winds this afternoon, turning west this evening. Winds should diminish overnight for most locations. Some thunderstorms may develop near JCT and BBD this evening, then move quickly southeastward. These may produce gusty winds, wind shear, and large hail. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Abilene 53 84 64 88 / 5 0 5 30 San Angelo 52 85 64 90 / 5 0 5 20 Junction 54 87 66 88 / 30 0 5 30 Brownwood 54 85 62 86 / 40 0 5 40 Sweetwater 52 84 64 91 / 0 0 5 20 Ozona 52 85 66 88 / 0 0 0 10 && .SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Wind Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for Fisher-Haskell- Jones-Nolan. && SHORT TERM...SK LONG TERM....04 AVIATION...SK MESOSCALE UPDATE...SJH
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service San Angelo TX 206 PM CDT Sun Oct 10 2021 TXZ049-054-064>066-071>073-076>078-098-099-113-114-127-128-139- 140-154-155-168>170-111915- Fisher-Nolan-Sterling-Coke-Runnels-Irion-Tom Green-Concho- Crockett-Schleicher-Sutton-Haskell-Throckmorton-Jones-Shackelford- Taylor-Callahan-Coleman-Brown-McCulloch-San Saba-Menard-Kimble- Mason- 206 PM CDT Sun Oct 10 2021 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of west central Texas. .DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and evening for our far eastern counties. The main hazards will be large hail and damaging wind gusts. Low humidity values are expected behind a dryline this afternoon west of a line from Abilene to San Angelo to Ozona. This may result in elevated fire danger. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday Thunderstorms with heavy rain will be possible across much of west central Texas Tuesday through Thursday. Heavy rainfall may lead to localized flooding across the southeast. In addition, a few storms may approach severe levels across the northern Big Country on Tuesday afternoon as a cold front approaches. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation may be needed across far eastern counties this afternoon. Please relay any information about observed weather to the NWS while following all local, state and CDC guidelines.
The Dyess AFB radar (KDYX), 61 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 23:03 UTC.
4 thunderstorm wind. Local standard time, as filed.
The 5 ESE of Stamford Mesonet recorded a wind gust of 65 mph.
A wind gust of 61 mph was recorded at the Abilene Regional Airport.
A large tree was blown down on Vine Street in Bangs. The time was estimated on radar.
A large tree was blown down onto power lines on County Road 381 near Early. The time was estimated on radar.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Texas in 2021Every state in 2021This day in weather historyWarnings in Texas, October 2021
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 990139, 990140, 990137, 990138.