A strong Autumn storm system consisting of a deep upper trough, a dryline, and a cold front generated a round of strong to severe storms across the region on the evening of Sunday, October 10. Wind damage was the main mode of severe weather received with this system.
Every event with a place to put it. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS FWD wrote it up.
A strong Autumn storm system consisting of a deep upper trough, a dryline, and a cold front generated a round of strong to severe storms across the region on the evening of Sunday, October 10. Wind damage was the main mode of severe weather received with this system.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Fort Worth, TX wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Oct 10, 1:41 PM CST, 48 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 241 PM CDT Sun Oct 10 2021 ...New Long Term... .SHORT TERM... /Issued 1207 PM CDT Sun Oct 10 2021/ /Through Monday Afternoon/ The remainder of the day will be very breezy, warm and humid with highs in the 90s. North and Central Texas is still on track to see a round of severe weather this evening through parts of the overnight hours, followed by rain-free and cooler weather Monday. You may recall that the necessary ingredients for severe thunderstorms are moisture, instability, lift and wind shear. We are currently seeing an influx of Gulf moisture as evident by the extensive morning stratus and dew points in the mid 60s to the lower 70s. This moisture is being drawn into a deepening surface low, currently located across southwest Oklahoma. Our second necessary ingredient is instability, which is currently not in place in the lower levels of the atmosphere as evident by a strong cap of warm air between 850 and 700 mb (seen on the 12Z FWD sounding). We do anticipate this cap to weaken in time with increasing large scale ascent provided by a compact trough approaching from New Mexico. However, the cap across the forecast area is most likely too strong to be broken during peak heating and will not break until closer to sunset. Lift initially will be provided by a dryline extending southward from the surface low. We anticipate storms to develop on the dryline northwest of the CWA during the late afternoon with best potential near the surface low across southwest Oklahoma. These dryline initiated storms should intensify quickly while moving east/northeast. Some of these storms will likely move into our northwest counties around or just before 7 PM. Wind shear profiles will be extremely favorable to sustain long lived updrafts with hail, damaging winds and tornadoes all possible with these supercells. One unknown still is just how many storms will initiate during the early evening hours. The convective mode will change from supercells to a quasilinear convective system as a cold front catches up to the dryline and marches east across the region. Storms will likely unzip from north to south along the cold front. Damaging winds and hail will be the primary threats within the line, however brief tornadoes near the bowing segments of the line will also be possible, especially across North Texas where the 0-3 km shear should be most favorable. The good news is that the fast movement of the front will keep the line narrow with thunderstorms only lasting for a short time. Therefore, we will keep PoPs high but rainfall amounts low (generally less than 0.5 inch). Our thinking on timing of storms has not changed since the previous forecast with best window for the western zones between 7 and 10 pm, the I-35 corridor (including the Metroplex, Sherman, Waco and Temple Killeen between 9 PM and midnight and the eastern zones between midnight and 4 AM). Once the line of storms exits the region in the pre-dawn hours Monday, dry, subsident air will make for a mostly sunny and rain-free day with highs in the 80s. 79 && .LONG TERM... /NEW/ /Monday Night through Next Weekend/ The extended portion of the forecast features daily rain/storm chances through Friday followed by a nice, dry, and cooler weekend. As the Sunday night storm system continues to lift to the northeast, another strong upper-level trough will move from the west into the Four Corners region. At the surface, a warm frontal boundary will begin to lift northward from the Texas Coast, bringing another surge of moisture into North and Central TX. Scattered showers and storms will be possible during the day on Tuesday. Severe weather appears low at this time, but we can't rule out a few strong storms. Precipitation chances will increase Tuesday night through Thursday as strong/large scale ascent and deeper moisture increases across our region. Most guidance agrees that the southwesterly flow in the wake of the upper low will allow the surface cold front to weaken and stall just to our west Wednesday and Thursday. Pacific moisture is expected to be advected into Texas associated with Tropical Depression 16 over the Eastern Pacific. Models also suggest that we will positioned under the divergence and ascent entrance region of the jet. As we bring all these pieces together into a conceptual model, we notice that it matches the Pacific- Texas PREs (Predecessor Rain Events) pattern. What this means is that convection over Texas will likely be enhanced provided that low-level moisture is also available. Forecast PWs in the 1.6-2.5" range depicts that low level moisture will reside over the region. With that in mind...confidence is increasing that there will be periods of heavy rainfall as a large band of rain oriented NE-SW develops along and ahead of the cold front during this time period. It is still too early to pinpoint the exact location of the heaviest precipitation, but it appears that the majority of the region will receive rainfall totals between 1-3 inches. If the forecast continues to follow this pattern, we could see some locations receiving significantly higher rainfall amounts. We will continue to refine the details in the upcoming days, but it important to highlight the potential for some flooding concerns later in the week. The cold front will finally push through our area on Friday bringing cooler and drier air into the weekend. Tuesday through Thursday's temperatures will range from the upper 70s to upper 80s due to rain chances and clouds, but next weekend highs will stay in the 70s! Sanchez && .AVIATION... /Issued 1207 PM CDT Sun Oct 10 2021/ /18Z TAFs/ Main concern will be thunderstorms impacting all TAF sites this evening with the most likely time between 02Z and 05Z. Severe storms are possible (See short term discussion above for details on the general weather pattern). A secondary concern will be crosswind issues behind the line of storms overnight. MVFR stratus will continue to lift and partially scatter through late morning with scattered to broken Cu above 3000 ft expected through the afternoon. VFR will continue this evening though Monday except in and near thunderstorms where ceilings and visibility will both fall. As mentioned above, the best timing for storms will be when a cold front arrives between 02Z and 05Z. Storm chances in Waco will be a bit lower since they will be further from the best upper level energy associated with a passing upper trough. Dry and subsident air will move in behind the front, resulting in decreasing clouds overnight/Monday. Strong and gusty southerly winds (15 to 20 with gusts to 30 knots) will continue through late afternoon with wind speeds decreasing slight ahead of the cold front. A southwest to west wind initially behind the cold front will gradually become northwest overnight and remain northwest through the day Monday. Wind speeds will be between 10 and 15 mph with some higher gusts. The winds just after the line of storms passes may create some crosswind issues on north/south oriented runways. 79 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 62 82 64 86 72 / 80 0 5 60 40 Waco 60 82 65 87 73 / 80 5 5 40 20 Paris 62 79 58 82 70 / 80 5 5 50 30 Denton 57 83 59 85 68 / 80 0 5 60 50 McKinney 60 82 60 84 71 / 80 0 5 60 40 Dallas 64 83 66 87 74 / 80 0 5 50 40 Terrell 60 82 60 86 70 / 90 5 5 50 20 Corsicana 62 84 65 87 72 / 80 5 10 40 20 Temple 60 85 66 87 72 / 80 5 5 40 20 Mineral Wells 56 83 60 86 68 / 50 0 5 50 50 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. &&
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 237 PM CDT Sun Oct 10 2021 TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175-111145- Montague-Cooke-Grayson-Fannin-Lamar-Young-Jack-Wise-Denton-Collin- Hunt-Delta-Hopkins-Stephens-Palo Pinto-Parker-Tarrant-Dallas- Rockwall-Kaufman-Van Zandt-Rains-Eastland-Erath-Hood-Somervell- Johnson-Ellis-Henderson-Comanche-Mills-Hamilton-Bosque-Hill-Navarro- Freestone-Anderson-Lampasas-Coryell-Bell-McLennan-Falls-Limestone- Leon-Milam-Robertson- 237 PM CDT Sun Oct 10 2021 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for North and Central Texas. .DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight. Storms are expected to develop this evening and overnight for much of the region. Some storms may be severe with large hail and damaging winds. A few tornadoes may also occur, with the highest potential along and north of the Highway 380 corridor. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday. Storm chances return late Tuesday and continue through the end of the week. Some strong storms will be possible along with locally heavy rain. More details regarding the Tuesday through Friday activity should become known by early in the work week. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation will be needed late this evening and tonight for much of the forecast area.
The Dallas/Ft Worth radar (KFWS), 142 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 20:31 UTC.
17 thunderstorm wind. Local standard time, as filed.
A public report indicated that a 180 feet tall Guyed Rohn tower collapsed from thunderstorm winds.
A public report indicated a 63 mph wind gust measured by a CWOP station approximately 15 miles north-northwest of Jacksboro, TX.
A trained spotter reported reported a 60 MPH wind gust approximately 4 miles north-northwest of the city of Bowie, TX on Highway 81.
The Automated Surface Observation System at Mineral Wells reported a 60 MPH wind gust.
A public report indicated multiple structures including a fifth-wheel damaged or destroyed. Most of the damage was peeled off metal roofs.
A public report indicated a 60 MPH wind gust in Annetta South, TX.
A weather station at Texas Motor Speedway in Fort Worth measured a wind gust of 68 MPH.
A trained spotter reported 60 MPH winds approximately 3 miles south-southwest of Northlake, TX.
A public report indicated large tree branches broken.
The Dallas-Fort Worth International Airport Automated Surface Observation System measured a wind gust of 70 MPH.
A public report indicated power poles snapped east of Highway 289 in Gunter, TX.
Emergency management reported trees damaged on the north side of FM 66 at the intersection of Oak Branch Road.
Emergency management reported damage to a building under construction at the 2500 block of South Hampton Rd.
Emergency management reported that the west side of the community center lost its roof in Gober, TX. An 18-wheeler was also knocked on its side and the playground was knocked on its side.
Emergency management reported that a medium sized shop building received major damage in Dodd City, TX.
Emergency management reported trees uprooted and a barn destroyed at the Old Brewer Dairy Farm about 6 miles north-northeast of Dodd City, TX.
Emergency management reported a tree down on the roof of a manufactured home approximately 9 miles east-southeast of Bryson, TX.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Texas in 2021Every state in 2021This day in weather historyWarnings in Texas, October 2021
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 988504, 989018, 989021, 989022, 989000, 989024, 989025, 989026, 989001, 989027, 989002, 989003, 989010, 989011, 989012, 989013, 989015.