High Wind in Nevada, February 26, 2021

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Reno NV
259 AM PST Fri Feb 26 2021

.SYNOPSIS...

A cold front will bring gusty winds later today through Saturday,
with a few snow showers possible near the Oregon border. Today's
warmup will be followed by chilly conditions tonight and Saturday.
Lighter winds and a bit of warming will prevail Sunday, with a
possible fast moving storm system bringing chances for light snow
early next week. Dry and milder conditions return by midweek.

&&

.SHORT TERM...

A short-lived warmup is expected today for most areas south of
Gerlach and Susanville before a cold front pushes southward later
today and tonight. This front will cut short the warming in far
northeast CA-northwest NV as winds and cloud cover increase. A few
very light snow showers are possible later this afternoon-early
evening near the Oregon border. All wind-related advisories will
remain in effect as latest guidance continues to indicate a period
of stronger winds with gusts near 50 mph this afternoon and early
evening across northwest NV and the Surprise Valley, and
hazardous conditions on Pyramid Lake. Areas of blowing dust will
also be possible for those areas and into Pershing and Churchill
Counties due to the winds. Higher elevation ridge gusts up to 75
mph are likely today through tonight.

Later tonight through Saturday morning, a slightly better chance
for snow showers arrives north of Gerlach to the Oregon border
including the Surprise Valley, and in far eastern Pershing County.
Some of these areas could receive from a dusting to near 1/2" of
snowfall, otherwise this front will be a dry passage for the
remainder of the region with the main effect being the drop in
temperatures compared to today. Highs will only reach the 40-45
degree range for most lower elevations and mid-upper 30s for
Sierra valleys. Brisk north winds with gusts 30-40 mph will
enhance the chilly conditions, with Pyramid Lake likely to be
choppy again.

For Saturday night, northeast to east winds will increase in
higher elevations with gusts up to 80 mph along the Sierra crest,
and a period of increased winds and waves is likely for the west
shores of Lake Tahoe. A cold night is on tap with lows mainly in
the teens to near 20, and from near zero to the single digits for
typically colder Sierra valleys as clear skies prevail.

These winds will decrease on Sunday (but not completely go away)
with a shortwave ridge returning to the West Coast and highs
rebounding a bit into the 40s-near 50, but still below average for
the end of February. MJD

.LONG TERM...Monday onward...

After brief short-wave ridging on Sunday, a weaker end trough will
attempt to develop off the West Coast. Its trajectory inland is
split between a more direct and quick inland push late Monday into
Tuesday, while some guidance digs the low into a cut-off before
tracking inland mainly south of the region.

In either scenario, we are not seeing much potential for significant
precipitation out of this one and as it stands, looking in the
ballpark of a 10% chance of seeing around 0.25" of precipitation
across the Sierra. While the tracks of cut-off lows are inherently
lower confidence, we'll continue to monitor this low's evolution for
a favored trajectory.

The pattern from Tuesday into the start of next weekend should
see temperatures rising to near average by midweek, with highs
near 60 degrees for western Nevada valleys and low 50s for Sierra
valleys by Thursday into the weekend.

By next weekend, ensembles do begin leaning towards development of a
troughing pattern across the eastern Pacific. While this could
translate to some better potential for precipitation, the strength
of the pattern is still contested. Nonetheless, it still looks like
our best potential for the upcoming week with rain, snow, and gusty
winds a possibility. Fuentes

&&

.AVIATION...

Expecting a cold frontal passage today with gusty W-NW winds
developing in its wake after about 20-21z this afternoon. Mountain
wave turbulence will be possible with gusts up to 35 kts for area
terminals. The strongest winds will be near KLOL and KNFL with
periods of blowing dust possible through the afternoon and evening
and potentially into Saturday as well.

This will mainly be a dry cold front with no precipitation expected
across the Sierra and far western Nevada terminals. The best
potential to see at least some light precipitation will remain
across north central and eastern Nevada through Saturday. Fuentes

&&

.REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NV...Lake Wind Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 10 PM PST this
     evening NVZ004.

     Wind Advisory from 7 AM this morning to 10 PM PST this evening
     NVZ005.

CA...Wind Advisory from 7 AM this morning to 10 PM PST this evening
     CAZ070.

&&

For more information from the National Weather Service visit...
http://weather.gov/reno