An upper-level disturbance moving across North Texas combined with a warm front across central Mississippi to produce locally heavy rainfall across parts of North Mississippi. Some localized areal flooding occurred over parts of north Mississippi.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS MEG wrote it up.
An upper-level disturbance moving across North Texas combined with a warm front across central Mississippi to produce locally heavy rainfall across parts of North Mississippi. Some localized areal flooding occurred over parts of north Mississippi.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Memphis, TN wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Feb 26, 5:30 AM CST, 2 hours 20 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Memphis TN 530 AM CST Fri Feb 26 2021 .DISCUSSION... /issued 513 AM CST Fri Feb 26 2021/ The long-advertised multi-day rainy period was underway this morning, ahead of a well-defined shortwave lifting east across north TX. Widespread showers a few embedded thunderstorms occurred north of a surface warm front over central MS early this morning. MRMS radar-based rainfall estimates between 1.5 and 2.5 inches had fallen south of Tupelo since 10 PM Thursday. Up to 1.5 inches was estimated during this period near New Albany, MS. The remainder of north MS and southwest TN received an inch or less through the night. Expect rain to lift off to the east through late morning, with the eastward translation of the shortwave and attendant low level warm conveyor belt. Additional showers will be possible along and ahead of the slowly-lifting warm front this afternoon. Given the building heights aloft, and limited instability, no focused areas of heavy rain or severe thunderstorm potential is expected. This front will stall/wash out over the Midsouth, following the passage of a weak shortwave to our north late tonight. Additional showers will be supported late tonight near the nose of a 925mb theta-e ridge and weak convergences axis oriented roughly along I-40. Building midlevel heights should shift the lower level convergence features to the north Saturday night and early Sunday morning, focusing heavier rain potential from the Ozarks through the lower Ohio River valley. This corridor of rain will then shift south on Sunday, ahead of a northern branch trof dropping southeast from the central plains. Rainfall rates through this multi-day event are not expected to be particularly high. The Marginal to Slight Risk Excessive Rainfall Outlooks in this particular event are driven mainly by moist soil conditions and the multi-episodic nature of the rainfall. But Sunday night could see increased rainfall rates, courtesy of stronger frontal convergence, training potential, and precipitable water values near 1.6 inches. The aforementioned northern branch trof should drive out rainfall by Monday afternoon. Next rain event will arrive courtesy of a weakening southern branch cut-off low lifting into the Red River valley Monday night. Thereafter, model consensus begins to fade considerably toward the midweek periods. PWB && .AVIATION... 12Z TAF Set Rain will continue to spread into the Mid-South ahead of a warm front. The front may push the band of rain further to the north today before shifting back to the south during the overnight hours tonight. Conditions will continue to deteriorate at the TAF sites over the course of the TAF period. KJBR will likely see the worse conditions as it will stay north of the front. When showers/rain is not occurring at TAF sites, expect VSBYS to tank due to drizzle and/or fog. Northeast or easterly winds of 8-10 KTS will generally become light and variable as the front lifts northward into the area. KRM && && .MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None. &&
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Memphis TN 350 AM CST Fri Feb 26 2021 ARZ009-018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058-MOZ113-115-MSZ001>017- 020>024-TNZ001>004-019>022-048>055-088>092-271200- Alcorn-Benton MS-Benton TN-Calhoun-Carroll-Chester-Chickasaw-Clay- Coahoma-Craighead-Crittenden-Crockett-Cross-DeSoto-Decatur- Dunklin-Dyer-Fayette-Gibson-Greene-Hardeman-Hardin-Haywood- Henderson-Henry-Itawamba-Lafayette-Lake-Lauderdale-Lee AR-Lee MS- Madison-Marshall-McNairy-Mississippi-Monroe-Obion-Panola-Pemiscot- Phillips-Poinsett-Pontotoc-Prentiss-Quitman-Shelby-St. Francis- Tallahatchie-Tate-Tippah-Tipton-Tishomingo-Tunica-Union-Weakley- Yalobusha- 350 AM CST Fri Feb 26 2021 This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of East Arkansas... the Missouri Bootheel...North Mississippi...and West Tennessee. .DAY ONE...Today and Tonight Moderate to occasionally heavy rainfall will be possible along and south of Interstate 40 this morning. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday The threat of locally heavy rainfall and flooding will continue into early next week. Overall, highest rainfall amounts are expected over east central Arkansas and north Mississippi. However, the axis of heavier rainfall will momentarily shift to areas north of Interstate 40 Saturday night into early Sunday morning. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not anticipated at this time. PWB
The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
1 flood. Local standard time, as filed.
Big Creek rose out of its banks and flooded County Road 308. This resulted in the closure of County Road 308 between County Road 312 and County Road 313.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Mississippi in 2021Every state in 2021This day in weather historyWarnings in Mississippi, February 2021
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 944322.