A warm front moves onshore from the south west with heavy wet snow expected to fall in a short period of time. Rain changed back to snow in the Juneau area with a very wet slush accumulating.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS AJK wrote it up.
A warm front moves onshore from the south west with heavy wet snow expected to fall in a short period of time. Rain changed back to snow in the Juneau area with a very wet slush accumulating. Temperatures remained cold enough in the upper Lynn Canal area for snow and a second wrap continued the snow into Sunday, even behind the cold front.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Juneau, AK wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Feb 26, 3:04 PM AKST, 7 hours 56 minutes earlier.
Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
304 PM AKST Fri Feb 26 2021
.SHORT TERM...The short lull and mostly clear skies that we have
enjoyed, today, over the Panhandle will come to an end tonight.
The next frontal system approaches the area, tonight. It brings
with it a copious amount of moisture streaming from Pacific low
latitudes. This will bring heavy precipitation on southeast Alaska
over the weekend. Coastal areas and central and southern
Panhandle locations can expect to see anywhere between 1.5 and 3
inches of heavy liquid equivalent precipitation from this event.
Typically mountain rain shadowed areas around Haines and Skagway
and along the haines and Klondike border highways can expect to
receive appreciably less precipitation. This can be classified as
an atmospheric river event with its long deep moisture fetch and
GFS model IVT values of around 700 approaching the Panhandle.
Notably, this value is on average about 40 percent lower than
values seen with the atmospheric river setups that were
experienced back in the late Fall. These higher values are also
focused more toward the southern Panhandle.
Guidance indicates that surface and upper level temperatures will
be cold enough for precipitation to start out as snow tonight for
many areas in the central and northern Panhandle and areas at
higher elevations. A Winter Storm Warning is in Effect for 2 to 8
inches of snow accumulation in the Juneau area from 11PM tonight
until 1PM AKST Saturday. Model guidance shows that the
precipitation will transition over to heavy rain in most areas as
warm air advection moves into the area at the surface and at 850mb
as the warm front gradually passes through the Panhandle
throughout the day, tomorrow. The typical locations approaching
the Canadian borders around the Haines and Klondike Highway areas
can expect to receive primarily snow as their surface temperatures
will not be able to warm to values as high.
Dominant southwesterly flow will remain over the eastern Gulf and
Panhandle through the weekend, delivering the warm air and deep
moisture supply through the event.
This frontal system is not a big wind maker as there is not a
tight pressure gradient associated with it.
.LONG TERM.../Sunday through Friday night/...An active weather
pattern continues into the long term with at multiple systems
expected to impact Southeast Alaska through late next week.
The period begins with a low in the NW gulf and a front already
impacting Southeast Alaska. Precipitation will be ongoing across
the region Sunday morning, transitioning from stratiform rain to
showers as onshore flow and cold air advection move in behind the
front. Higher snow levels ranging from near 1000 feet in Haines
to over 4000 feet across the south will fall through the day
Sunday. Increasing instability from CAA and lowering 1000-850mb
thicknesses will likely lead to a transition to a rain/snow mix or
all snow in some areas by Sunday night. Minor accumulations are
possible across the northern half of the Panhandle from the snow
showers. A very brief break in the precipitation is expected
Monday morning before the next system approaches.
Models and ensembles continue the active weather pattern into
early next week as there is good agreement another system will
move into the northern gulf Monday afternoon into Tuesday,
swinging another front into the Panhandle. Latest guidance has
backed off on the atmospheric river potential with this system;
however rainfall amounts upwards of an inch are still possible
Monday evening through Tuesday evening. Southerly flow ahead of
the front is expected to warm surface temperatures enough for
P-type to be mainly rain. Will have to watch Upper Lynn Canal and
the highways for the potential for more snow though.
Towards mid week, guidance is in good agreement that lower
pressure will remain in the gulf with multiple waves/lows rotating
into the Panhandle. At this time, there is low confidence
regarding the finer details of any one wave; however confidence is
high that a wet pattern will persist into mid to late next week.
Used a blend of the GFS/Euro for the weekend and the start of next
week; transitioning to mainly WPC for days 5 through 8.
&&
.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...Winter Storm Warning from 11 PM this evening to 1 PM AKST
Saturday for AKZ025.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ022-031>036-041>043-051>053.
&&
JLC/CM
Visit us at http://www.weather.gov/Juneau3 winter storm. Local standard time, as filed.
Trained spotter in Petersburg reports 6 inches of snow in 12 hours at 5:40 pm.
Department of Transportation reported over 8 inches to a foot of snow on the Klondike Highway to the border.
Haines Coop observer reported 5+ inches of snowfall already with more showers producing heavy amounts.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Alaska in 2021Every state in 2021This day in weather historyWarnings in Alaska, February 2021
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 945736, 945718, 945722.