High Wind in California, February 26, 2021

Area Forecast Discussion UPDATED
National Weather Service Hanford CA
509 PM PST Fri Feb 26 2021

...Air Quality Issues Section Updated...

.SYNOPSIS...Conditions will become breezy to windy and a
little cooler Saturday as a storm system skirts by to our
east. Continued dry and trending warmer Sunday and Monday.
Tuesday and Wednesday will bring the potential for wet
weather, but confidence remains low.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A dry northwesterly flow continues over the region while a
shortwave trough is dropping southeast toward the Great Basin
area. This is providing central California with mainly sunny skies
and temperatures on track to top out a bit above climo this
afternoon. As the trough continues its southeastward trek,
westerly winds are expected to increase through and below
mountain passes in Kern county later this afternoon and evening.
A Wind Advisory has been issued there from 5 pm through 11 PM
tonight.

Models drop additional shortwave energy into the Great Basin
region Saturday, bringing more breezy conditions and a slight
cooldown, but continued dry. Blended model guidance indicates wind
gusts will likely exceed 35 mph along the west side of the San
Joaquin Valley and the West Side Hills tomorrow. A Wind Advisory
will be in effect there from 8 AM through 9 PM Saturday. By
Saturday night a relatively strong offshore surface pressure
gradient is likely to develop and this could produce some
significant gusty northeasterly winds over the Sierra zones. For
the Sierra north of Kern County and the foothill areas north of
Tulare County, our blended model guidance suggests a chance of
seeing wind gusts in excess of 45 mph. There is a slight chance
that we can see gusts approaching 60 mph over the crest and higher
ridges. These wind gusts are forecast to peak between midnight and
4 AM Sunday morning. A Wind Advisory will be in effect for these
areas from 10 PM Saturday through 10 AM Sunday.

By Sunday, models agree on a brief period of shortwave ridging
ahead of a developing northeast Pacific trough. This will mean
continued dry conditions with warming temperatures, and by
Monday, we can expect afternoon highs around 4-8 degrees above
seasonal averages. Beyond Monday, forecast uncertainty remains
rather high, but latest model runs are somewhat more convergent
on some manifestation of a closed low developing offshore of
central California by early Tuesday and swinging inland to our
south sometime between Tuesday night and Wednesday night. None of
the solutions suggest a significant chance for precipitation, and
our forecast currently calls for just a slight chance for mountain
showers Monday night into Tuesday.

There is general model consensus on dry and warming conditions for
the second half of the week, under ridging and increasing
southwesterly flow ahead of another developing northeast Pacific
trough. After near normal temperatures on Tuesday, highs should
trend upward, possibly climbing to around ten degrees above
normal by Friday.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR conditions will prevail throughout central
California over the next 24 hours. Expect wind gusts over 40 knots
through and below Kern County mountain passes this evening and
around 35 knots along the west side of the San Joaquin Valley and
over the West Side Hills after 15Z Saturday

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
None.

&&

.CERTAINTY...

The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is medium.
The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is low.

Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit
www.weather.gov/hnx/certainty.html for additional information
an/or to provide feedback.

&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Advisory from 5 PM this afternoon to 11 PM PST this evening
for CAZ196>199.

Wind Advisory from 10 PM Saturday to 10 AM PST Sunday for CAZ190-
192>194.

Wind Advisory from 8 AM to 9 PM PST Saturday for CAZ179>182.
&&

public...JEB
aviation....CMc

weather.gov/hanford