A series of disturbances bringing lift and blasts of colder air across Lake Superior sustained a prolonged lake effect snow event for the northwest wind snow belts of Upper Michigan from the 1st into the 3rd.
Every event with a place to put it; 8 filed by county or forecast zone are drawn at its center, in a lighter ring. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS MQT wrote it up.
A series of disturbances bringing lift and blasts of colder air across Lake Superior sustained a prolonged lake effect snow event for the northwest wind snow belts of Upper Michigan from the 1st into the 3rd.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Marquette, MI wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Oct 31, 8:19 PM EST, 3 hours 41 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Marquette MI 919 PM EDT Sun Oct 31 2021 .UPDATE... Issued at 919 PM EDT SUN OCT 31 2021 ...Lake-effect continues this evening with potential for minor snow accumulations... Despite sfc obs remaining above freezing, model soundings suggest wetbulb zero heights to remain only a couple hundred ft off the ground, with a lowering trend through the evening to overnight hours. An impressive band of lake-effect(radar suggesting upwards of 15kft convective depth) is impacting Ontonagon County this evening and looks to continue for the next few hours, slowing shifting northward as winds back slightly. In an area void of webcams, it is tough to say if there is much accumulation at this time, but up the road on M26, there looks to be a dusting of accumulation near Twin Lakes and Nisula. Made some minor adjustments to the going forecast to ensure that snowfall was in the forecast due to the low wbz heights. Here at the office, we have had off and on showers through the evening, with a mix of rain and snow, the latest band of showers was all snow. With 2 inch soil temps in the mid to upper 40s, will take a steadier band of precip to allow accums, but a sloppy inch or two could be obtained overnight where bands remain over head for some time. && .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday) Issued at 258 PM EDT SUN OCT 31 2021 Water vapor imagery and RAP analysis show a closed low over northern Ontario with a shortwave trough moving across the Upper Great Lakes this afternoon. At the sfc, NW winds are gusty behind the cold front which exited the area this morning with the strongest gusts of 30-35 mph across the Keweenaw and shoreline areas east of Marquette. Main lake effect shower activity by this afternoon has been confined to mostly to the east half and even that has been weakening in intensity due to fairly dry air upstream as depicted by the soundings. Tonight, expect an uptick in wnw flow lake effect showers as 850 mb temps lower into -5C to -7C range and moisture depth increases upwards of 15kft. With lake induced equilibrium levels rising to 15- 20kft and with increased moisture depth compared to today, shower intensity will likely be briefly heavy at times tonight. Wet bulb zero heights falling well blo 1500ft across the area will support pcpn mixing with snow at times even close to Lake Superior. Given the potential depth of convective mixing, pcpn may end up being more graupel type at times, rather than snow, in heavier showers near the lake. Under wnw flow, low-level convergence will likely be maximized from central Ontonagon County into southern Houghton and Baraga County over the w and east of Munising over the eastern fcst area. So, expect greatest pcpn coverage in those areas. Over the w, 1-2 inches of snow accumulation is possible over the high terrain, particularly in Baraga County. Even over the e, some sloppy snow accumulations up to an inch may be possible inland from the lake. Expect low temps generally in the upper 20s/lower 30s, except mid 30s/upper 30s F near Lake Superior. Monday, expect more of the same as 850 mb temps maybe fall slightly to -6 to -8C late in the day. Best low-level convergence areas look to be in the same areas so again expect best lake effect shower coverage generally east of Munising and over the higher terrain of Ontonagon, southern Houghton and Baraga counties, perhaps reaching into nw Marquette County. Cooler daytime times over the west will favor the higher terrain of Baraga County for maybe another 1-2 inches of slushy snow. Expect highs ranging from generally the upper 30s west to the lower to mid 40s central and east. .LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday) Issued at 314 PM EDT SUN OCT 31 2021 Lake effect precipitation will be the main challenge in the long term with long wave troughing over eastern Canada into the Great Lakes though mid-week and a few different shortwaves dropping south through the area bringing reinforcing colder air, increased moisture and instability. Though mid-week the low levels are relatively dry at times with inverted-v type soundings. However, the more recent guidance is showing a bit more moisture in the low levels. This should result in moderate and possibly brief heavy showers at times as the atmosphere becomes more favorable with the passing shortwaves. Precipitation types will be mainly a rain/snow mix near the shorelines with all snow inland during the overnight hours, transitioning to a mix during the daytime. Blended QPF guidance is around a quarter to half inch in the west Monday night into Tuesday morning with up to three quarters of an inch over the east, mainly east of Munising. Snow amount may be sufficient for advisories for inland locations in the west and northwest lake effect belts, mainly during the overnight hours when temperatures will be more favorable for all snow and accumulations. The current forecast is for 2 to 4 inches in the east (inland) and 3 to 5 inches in the high terrain of the central/west. These amounts are in-line with the NBM 50th percentile 24 hour snow amounts. Some of the models are showing a more extreme precipitation event with NBM 90th snow amounts approaching 6 to 8 inches in the higher elevations of the central and west along with inland locations in the east. I wouldn't be surprised to see a few higher end snowfall reports where banding is more persistent. Tuesday night into Wednesday looks like the best coverage of lake effect precipitation will be in the east. As far as support for the lake effect precipitation, the first shortwave arrives Monday night and Tuesday, dropping south out of Ontario and tracking over the U.P. This brings steepening mid-level lapse rates with lake induced convection equilibrium levels reaching to 20 kft, with 850mb temps around -6C. Convergence increases over the east supporting a WNW to ESE orientated band for the east while some convergence over the west in Ontonagon and Houghton counties should help organize some of the bands there. Instability is strongest in the east with the better fetch, sfc based cape of 200 to 400 J/kg are forecast by the NAM/GFS with lake induced cape approaching 800 J/kg in the model bufrs. As the shortwave passes another will be on its heals. The second shortwave arrives Tuesday night and looks like it may track south of the U.P., helping to bring the mean low level winds more northerly with increased convergence over the eastern half of the lake favoring the N to NW lake effect wind belts. The GFS brings strong convergence close to the Marquette County shoreline on Tuesday night so we could at least see the lake effect bands shift west into western Alger and far northeastern Marquette County. 850mb temps fall to around -10C however the mid-levels will be slightly warmer during this time period which will lower lake induced equilibrium levels to around 10 kft. The boundary layer will be a bit colder which could bring accumulating snowfall closer to the Lake Superior shoreline. Things dry out for Thursday though the end of the week with temperatures moderating to the upper 40s to near 50 by the weekend. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening) Issued at 734 PM EDT SUN OCT 31 2021 Conditions at IWD/CMX/SAW will remain high-end MVFR to VFR through this fcst period. VFR conditions this evening are expected to fall into high-end MVFR tonight, before lifting back into VFR by late tomorrow morning. Lake-effect shrasn will remain transient through this fcst period under WNW winds, impacting all terminals, but due to transient nature, have left as VCSH. As a cool air mass remains over the region, expect gusty conditions at all terminals through the fcst period. && .MARINE...(For the 4 PM Lake Superior forecast issuance) Issued at 258 PM EDT SUN OCT 31 2021 In the wake of this morning's cold front, increased instability and mixing will support nw winds of 20-30kt across Lake Superior tonight into Monday. Over the e half, expect frequent gale force gusts to around 35kt into early evening where Gale Warning is in effect. Winds will then gradually diminish with gusts falling off to blo 20kt by late Tue and remaining under 20kt for Wed. West winds may increase a bit on Thu as pres gradient tightens slightly btwn high pres ridging to the s and a low pres trough dropping across Hudson Bay. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Upper Michigan... None. Lake Superior... None. Lake Michigan... None. && UPDATE...JAW SHORT TERM...Voss LONG TERM...NL AVIATION...JAW MARINE...Voss
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Marquette MI 325 PM EDT Sun Oct 31 2021 MIZ001>005-009>014-084-085-011930- Keweenaw-Ontonagon-Northern Houghton-Baraga-Marquette-Gogebic- Iron-Dickinson-Menominee-Delta-Southern Schoolcraft- Southern Houghton-Northern Schoolcraft- 325 PM EDT Sun Oct 31 2021 /225 PM CDT Sun Oct 31 2021/ This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western Upper Michigan and central Upper Michigan. .DAY ONE...Tonight No hazardous weather is expected at this time. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday Lake effect snow showers could result in a few inches of snow accumulation Monday night over the higher elevations resulting in slushy roads. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... The need for weather spotter reports is not anticipated at this time. MIZ006-007-011930- Alger-Luce- 325 PM EDT Sun Oct 31 2021 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central Upper Michigan. .DAY ONE...Tonight Strong winds on Lake Superior today and tonight could build large waves up to 12 feet along the lakeshores. These waves may cause some minor lakeshore flooding and beach erosion. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday Strong winds on Lake Superior Monday could build large waves up to 10 feet along the lakeshores. These waves may cause some minor lakeshore flooding and beach erosion. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... The need for weather spotter reports is not anticipated at this time. LSZ162-240>251-263>267-011930- Lake Superior west of a line from Saxon Harbor WI to Grand Portage MN beyond 5NM-Saxon Harbor WI to Black River MI- Black River to Ontonagon MI- Ontonagon to Upper Entrance of Portage Canal MI- Upper Entrance of Portage Canal to Eagle River MI- Eagle River to Manitou Island MI- Manitou Island to Point Isabelle MI- Point Isabelle to Lower Entrance of Portage Canal MI- Lower Entrance of Portage Canal To Huron Islands MI Including Keweenaw and Huron Bays-Huron Islands to Marquette MI- Marquette to Munising MI-Munising to Grand Marais MI- Grand Marais to Whitefish Point MI- Lake Superior from Saxon Harbor WI to Upper Entrance to Portage Canal MI 5NM off shore to the US/Canadian border including Isle Royale National Park- Lake Superior from Upper Entrance to Portage Canal to Manitou Island MI 5NM off shore to the US/Canadian Border- Lake Superior West of Line from Manitou Island to Marquette MI Beyond 5NM from shore- Lake Superior East of a line from Manitou Island to Marquette MI and West of a line from Grand Marais MI to the US/Canadian Border Beyond 5NM from shore- Lake Superior from Grand Marais MI to Whitefish Point MI 5NM off shore to the US/Canadian border- 325 PM EDT Sun Oct 31 2021 /225 PM CDT Sun Oct 31 2021/ This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of Eastern Lake Superior...Central Lake Superior and Western Lake Superior. .DAY ONE...Tonight Northwest gales to around 35 knots are expected into this evening across the east half of Lake Superior. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday No hazardous weather is expected at this time. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... The need for weather spotter reports is not anticipated at this time. LMZ221-248-250-011930- Green Bay North of line from Cedar River MI to Rock Island Passage-Seul Choix Point to Point Detour MI- 5NM East of a line from Fairport MI to Rock Island Passage- 325 PM EDT Sun Oct 31 2021 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of Northern Lake Michigan. .DAY ONE...Tonight No hazardous weather is expected at this time. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday No hazardous weather is expected at this time. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... The need for weather spotter reports is not anticipated at this time. NJL
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
1036 PM EDT SUN OCT 31 2021
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
1248 PM NON-TSTM WND GST MINNEAPOLIS SHOAL 45.58N 87.00W
10/31/2021 M49 MPH LMZ221 MI MESONET
MESONET STATION XMAPV MINNEAPOLIS SHOAL.
&&
TAPPRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
1042 PM EDT SUN OCT 31 2021
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0916 PM NON-TSTM WND GST PASSAGE ISLAND LIGHTHOU 48.22N 88.37W
10/31/2021 M44 MPH LSZ264 MI C-MAN STATION
C-MAN STATION PILM4 53 NNW EAGLE HARBOR.
&&
TAPPRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
1045 PM EDT SUN OCT 31 2021
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0303 AM NON-TSTM WND GST ROCK OF AGES LIGHTHOUSE 47.87N 89.31W
10/31/2021 M41 MPH LSZ263 MI C-MAN STATION
C-MAN STATION ROAM4 2 W ROCK OF AGES.
&&
TAPPRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
1052 PM EDT SUN OCT 31 2021
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0916 AM NON-TSTM WND GST PASSAGE ISLAND 48.22N 88.37W
10/31/2021 M44 MPH LSZ264 MI C-MAN STATION
CORRECTS TIME ON PREVIOUS NON-TSTM WND GST
REPORT FROM PASSAGE ISLAND. C-MAN STATION
PILM4 53 NNW EAGLE HARBOR.
&&
TAPSpecial Weather Statement National Weather Service Marquette MI 1152 PM EDT Sun Oct 31 2021 MIZ003>005-084-010630- Northern Houghton-Baraga-Marquette-Southern Houghton- Including the cities of Houghton, Hancock, L'Anse, Gwinn, Marquette, Kenton, and Sidnaw 1152 PM EDT Sun Oct 31 2021 ...SLUSHY ACCUMULATIONS ON ROADWAYS... A dominant lake-effect snow band is shifting across southern Houghton, Baraga, and western Marquette County, leading to slushy accumulations on the roadways. While soil temperatures remain above freezing, this may lead to slippery roads and perhaps icy bridges over the next few hours. Drivers should be aware of changing road conditions and slow down during slushy roadways. JAW
The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
7 winter weather, 1 winter storm. Local standard time, as filed.
There was a public report of 14 inches of lake effect snowfall over nearly a 60-hour period near Cusino Lake in northern Schoolcraft County.
The observer at Paulding measured 6.2 inches of lake effect snow in 24 hours.
The observer 11 miles south of Grand Marais reported 12 inches of lake effect snow for the 24-hour period ending on the morning of the 2nd. There was also an estimated amount of 8.5 inches in 12 hours in Shingleton. The snow load in Munising of 5 to 6 inches on the high voltage lines tripped the power off in Munising for an estimated 500 customers.
Observers reported 24-hour lake effect snowfall totals of 10 inches in Herman, 8.8 inches in Watton and around 7 inches at Three Lakes.
A public report of 7 inches of lake effect snow in Ironwood over an approximate 48-hour period.
There was a public report of an estimated 12 inches of lake effect snow over more than a 36-hour period seven miles north of McMillan. The social media post included various pictures of snowy woods and sled dogs. There was also a report of an estimated 6 inches of lake effect snow in just over 12 hours at Pine Stump Junction ending on the morning of the 2nd.
There was a public report of an estimated 11 inches of lake effect snow in less than 24 hours near Kenton.
One vehicle overturned and multiple other vehicles spun out on US-41/M-28 westbound due to icy roads caused by the early morning snowfall on the 2nd.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Michigan in 2021Every state in 2021This day in weather historyWarnings in Michigan, November 2021
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 989297, 989299, 989291, 989295, 989301, 989296, 989294, 989300.