The quieter and drier weather conditions that had characterized much of Fall 2021 continued in November with well below normal amounts of precipitation recorded. Drought conditions worsened again across northern and central New Mexico this month with about 70 percent of the state in at least severe drought conditions with 19 percent categorized as extreme drought.
Every event with a place to put it; 38 filed by county or forecast zone are drawn at its center, in a lighter ring. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS ABQ wrote it up.
The quieter and drier weather conditions that had characterized much of Fall 2021 continued in November with well below normal amounts of precipitation recorded. Drought conditions worsened again across northern and central New Mexico this month with about 70 percent of the state in at least severe drought conditions with 19 percent categorized as extreme drought. Drought conditions particularly worsened across the eastern plains where severe to extreme drought conditions continued to spread. Precipitation totals were dismal across the area during the month with precipitation totals well below half of one inch. Snowpack values were also very poor with snow depth across the higher terrain well below normal for the start of the season.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Albuquerque, NM wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Oct 31, 10:32 PM MST, 1 hour 28 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Albuquerque NM 1132 PM MDT Sun Oct 31 2021 .AVIATION... 06Z TAF CYCLE Areas of MVFR cigs have already developed near and east of the Sangre de Cristo Mountains, and may expand to KLVS within the next few hours. Prior to sunrise, MVFR to IFR cigs will also be likely across much of eastern NM, likely impacting KTCC, and perhaps KROW as well, though confidence is lower there. These cigs will likely dissipate by mid to late morning, but will quickly return again Monday night. Otherwise, high clouds will move in from the west and light winds will prevail. 34 && .PREV DISCUSSION...257 PM MDT Sun Oct 31 2021... .SYNOPSIS... Tranquil weather conditions will persist across central and western NM through the end of this week. Temperatures will be near to above normal with mild day and cool nights. Eastern NM will be a different story as a much cooler airmass slides into area Monday night. Several days of low clouds, fog, drizzle, and light rain are expected across eastern NM through Thursday. Some light snow and freezing drizzle may also impact the northern mountains and parts of northeast NM. A drier and warmer weather pattern is expected to return to eastern NM by Friday and Saturday. && .DISCUSSION... SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)... Zonal flow aloft is drawing in another band of high cirrus clouds into NM, ahead of a weak and dampened shortwave trough. Some clearing is expected in western zones through the early evening with additional batches of cirrus clouds forecast to follow tonight. As diurnal heating wanes after sunset, surface isobars may pack a bit to the east of the central mountain chain, drawing in a few gusts through central gaps and canyons, but these should stay at or below 25 mph for the most part and will likely subside before midnight. In the far eastern plains, the surface flow will be slow to veer in direction, and so long as an east southeast component is retained some subtle moisture advection could linger and lead to some low stratus clouds before sunrise. Wind direction appears to veer more southerly just before sunrise Monday, and the aforementioned high cirrus clouds will be arriving in the eastern zones about this time (hampering radiational cooling), and these competing processes make the low cloud forecast tricky in the east tonight and Monday morning. Westerly flow aloft will persist into Monday with batches of high clouds periodically entering NM. Winds in much of the eastern plains will veer a few more degrees to more of a south southwest or even southwesterly direction, except in the far northeastern plains where another back door cold front will be arriving. Temperatures will cool a couple to a few degrees in western zones Monday, but will rise in eastern zones south of the front; overall readings will run near to slightly above average for early November. The front in the plains will advance farther south Monday night, having infiltrated most of our eastern zones before sunrise Tuesday. Building stratus, drizzle and patchy fog will likely accompany the front. 52 LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)... The primary forecast challenge Tuesday thru Thursday will be low clouds, areas of fog, drizzle, light rain, and perhaps some light frozen precip over eastern NM. Surface high pressure building south down the Great Plains will force moist, shallow easterly flow into eastern NM Tuesday. A weak upper level wave moving quickly east over northern NM will help draw this airmass westward and provide enough lift for a combo of light rain/drizzle and a few rain/snow showers. The current focus Tuesday and Tuesday night is along and east of the Pecos Valley but possibly west to the central mt chain as tends to be the case in these scenarios. Temps will remain warm enough to prevent frozen precip in areas outside the higher terrain of the Sangre de Cristos. A secondary, stronger upper wave is shown moving southeast from the Great Basin by Wednesday with an even deeper push of easterly flow across eastern NM. Low clouds, fog, drizzle, and light rain have a greater chance developing west to the central mt chain with a slight chance for light frozen precip across the northeast plains. A 90kt speed max is expected to shift southeast by late Wednesday and help develop a few additional showers from the central mt chain east into the plains thru Wednesday night, along with more low clouds and fog. The next challenge will be scouring of low cigs from eastern NM thru Thursday night as drier air approaches from the west. The remainder of the forecast Friday through Sunday looks tranquil again with lower humidity and continued above normal temps. Guyer && .FIRE WEATHER... Repeated cold fronts will impact eastern New Mexico through the first half of the week, keeping fickle temperature/humidity trends going. In the wake of yesterday’s front, temperatures in eastern zones have remained below normal, but most of these zones should rebound to more seasonable readings on Monday, only to fall again into Tuesday and Wednesday. Prevailing wind speeds will tend to be light with moderate gusts developing in the afternoon, and more-so during frontal passages when wind speeds will briefly spike along with directional shifts. Chances remain low for appreciable wetting, or fuel-soaking, precipitation during Tuesday and Wednesday, however high humidity, drizzle, and/or light rain/flurries will be possible in northeastern and eastern NM, acting to suppress fire weather concerns. Elsewhere, mostly dry conditions are expected in western zones this week with considerably lower humidity and more climatological temperatures. Temperatures begin rising in eastern zones Thursday with near to slightly above average temperatures expected across the entire forecast area by Friday. The upper level pattern amplifies considerably toward next weekend, and not surprising, forecast models appear to be struggling to hash out the details. There remains a large disparity among extended forecast models with the American GFS model boasting a windier pattern for NM by Friday and this weekend while the European counterpart keeps a warmer, more tranquil pattern. This outside chance for a warmer, windier pattern will certainly be a focus for fire weather forecasting in the days ahead. 52 && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. &&
Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED National Weather Service Albuquerque NM 315 PM MDT Sun Oct 31 2021 NMZ201>241-011100- Northwest Plateau-Chuska Mountains-Far Northwest Highlands- Northwest Highlands-West Central Plateau-West Central Mountains- West Central Highlands-Southwest Mountains- San Francisco River Valley-Tusas Mountains Including Chama- Jemez Mountains-Glorieta Mesa Including Glorieta Pass- Northern Sangre de Cristo Mountains- Southern Sangre de Cristo Mountains- East Slopes Sangre de Cristo Mountains-Upper Rio Grande Valley- Espanola Valley-Santa Fe Metro Area- Middle Rio Grande Valley/Albuquerque Metro Area- Lower Rio Grande Valley-Sandia/Manzano Mountains Including Edgewood- Estancia Valley-Central Highlands-South Central Highlands- Upper Tularosa Valley-South Central Mountains- Johnson and Bartlett Mesas Including Raton Pass- Far Northeast Highlands-Northeast Highlands-Union County- Harding County-Eastern San Miguel County-Guadalupe County- Quay County-Curry County-Roosevelt County-De Baca County- Chaves County Plains-Eastern Lincoln County-Southwest Chaves County- San Agustin Plains and Adjacent Lowlands- 315 PM MDT Sun Oct 31 2021 This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of north and central New Mexico. .DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight No hazardous weather is expected. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday Low clouds, fog, drizzle, and light rain will develop over northeast and east-central NM Monday night and Tuesday then become widespread across eastern NM Tuesday night through Wednesday night. Difficult travel conditions are possible with road spray and visibility below one-half mile at times. Temperatures may be cold enough to support brief periods of light freezing drizzle and/or freezing fog across far northeast NM during the overnight hours. In addition, rain and high terrain snow showers are possible across the northern mountains Tuesday night through Wednesday night with localized slick travel possible over higher mountain passes. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not anticipated. Guyer
The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
38 drought. Local standard time, as filed.
Extreme drought conditions from October 2021 continued in November.
Severe to extreme drought conditions from October 2021 continued in November.
Severe to extreme drought conditions from October 2021 continued in November.
Severe to extreme drought conditions from October 2021 continued in November.
Severe drought conditions from October 2021 worsened to extreme drought conditions in November.
Severe drought conditions from October 2021 continued in November.
Severe to extreme drought conditions from October 2021 continued in November.
Severe drought conditions from October 2021 worsened to extreme drought conditions in November.
Severe to extreme drought conditions from October 2021 continued in November.
Severe to extreme drought conditions from October 2021 continued in November.
Extreme drought conditions from October 2021 continued in November.
Severe drought conditions from October 2021 worsened to extreme drought conditions in November.
Severe drought conditions from October 2021 continued in November.
Severe drought conditions from October 2021 continued in November.
Severe drought conditions from October 2021 continued in November.
Extreme drought conditions from October 2021 continued in November.
Extreme drought conditions from October 2021 continued in November.
Severe to extreme drought conditions from October 2021 worsened with extreme drought conditions areawide in November.
Severe to extreme drought conditions from October 2021 worsened with extreme drought conditions areawide in November.
Severe to extreme drought conditions from October 2021 worsened with extreme drought conditions areawide in November.
Severe drought conditions from October 2021 continued in November.
Severe drought conditions from October 2021 continued in November.
Severe drought conditions from October 2021 continued in November.
Severe to extreme drought conditions from October 2021 worsened with extreme drought conditions areawide in November.
Severe conditions from October 2021 continued in November.
Severe conditions from October 2021 continued in November.
Severe conditions from October 2021 continued in November.
Severe conditions from October 2021 continued in November.
Severe conditions from October 2021 continued in November.
Severe conditions from October 2021 worsened to extreme drought conditions in November.
Severe conditions from October 2021 worsened in November with extreme drought conditions across western portions of the area.
Severe drought conditions developed over the area in November 2021.
Severe drought conditions developed over the area in November 2021.
Severe drought conditions developed over the area in November 2021.
Severe drought conditions developed over the area in November 2021.
Severe drought conditions developed over the area in November 2021.
Severe drought conditions developed over the area in November 2021.
Severe drought conditions developed over the area in November 2021.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in New Mexico in 2021Every state in 2021This day in weather historyWarnings in New Mexico, November 2021
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 987937, 987939, 987941, 987943, 987946, 987948, 987951, 987954, 987957, 987959, 987961, 987963, 987966, 987969, 987971, 987974, 987976, 987979, 987981, 987984, 987986, 987988, 987990, 987993, 987996, 987997, 987998, 987999, 988000, 988001, 988002, 988004, 988005, 988006, 988008, 988009, 988010, 988011.