Drought in North Dakota, November 1 to 30, 2021

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
1257 AM CDT Mon Nov 1 2021

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1246 AM CDT Mon Nov 1 2021

Mid level energy rotating through the Northern Plains early this
morning triggering cloud development and some isolated snow
flurries. Added this to the forecast through 12Z. Cloud cover will
wreck havoc on the temperature forecast for the remainder of this
morning. Overall made limited changes to overnight lows with the
exception to where we expect the better cloud coverage to
persist. This is tricky as models are not depicting latest sky
cover trends very well.

Another strong embedded impulse will rotate south/southeast
through the region Monday. CAMs indicating some splotchy simulated
radar returns, along with global RH time height cross sections and
sounding analysis showing a BKN-OVC cloud deck at around 4K Ft AGL.
Given what is happening early this morning with the combination
of boundary layer moisture and forcing aloft, went ahead and
mentioned flurries for Monday afternoon for all but the southwest.

UPDATE Issued at 949 PM CDT Sun Oct 31 2021

Once again only minor changes were needed with this update. Recent
rapid-refresh guidance is beginning to capture cloud trends across
central ND more in line with what satellite trends suggest, namely
that an area of low- and midlevel clouds will likely persist while
spreading slowly-southeast in cyclonic flow. Despite midlevel cold
air advection, temperature differences between Lake Sakakawea and
the 850 mb level are marginal for lake-effect cloud growth, but
there is a non-zero probability of that occurring, too. Meanwhile,
lows are still well on track to be in the teens F in western ND
where clear skies will persist in vicinity of a surface ridge axis.

UPDATE Issued at 629 PM CDT Sun Oct 31 2021

We blended observed trends into the forecast for this update, with
little in the way of significant changes. We did however boost the
sky cover in north central ND through the evening given satellite
trends, which suggest some of the low- and midlevel cloud decks
upstream in southern Canada are not diurnally driven and thus may
persist after boundary layer mixing diminishes. They could extend
further south into central ND overnight, too.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 141 PM CDT Sun Oct 31 2021

The short term period will be highlighted by cold temperatures and
mostly dry conditions.

Currently high pressure is situated from southern Alberta and
saskatchewan southeast into eastern Montana and the western
Dakotas. Clouds were situated over the northeast quarter of the
state, with mostly sunny skies over the remainder of the state.

Tonight, a lobe of energy will track southeast through the mean
trough, keeping the cold air over western and central ND. Partly
to mostly cloudy skies remain over the northeast, with clear to
partly cloudy skies southwest. Look for lows tonight mainly in the
20s, except for some teens southwest under the clear skies and
lighter winds.

Monday should be a little cooler than today with more clouds
northwest and central. Highs should range from the mid 30s to
lower 40s. A diurnally driven isolated snow shower can not be
ruled out but measurable precipitation is not expected.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)
Issued at 141 PM CDT Sun Oct 31 2021

Cool and dry conditions are expected through the extended forecast
period.

A northwest flow pattern will continue through mid-week bringing
cool and mainly dry conditions. Any precipitation is expected to
be light and diurnally driven. Thursday and beyond we see a
gradually warm-up in the across the Northern Plains. There are
some indications of light precipitation over the northern Plains
in the Friday-Saturday timeframe but at this time NBM pops are
not currently depicted. Given the light amounts if there were to
be any precipitation, see no reason to introduce anything at this
time. The same goes for the wide spread in the NBM ensemble
temperatures after Wednesday. One potential target of opportunity
could be morning low temperatures Tuesday and Wednesday given the
placement of the surface high. However with the northwest flow
pattern, it's easy to get a patch of cloud tracking through the
area, limiting radiational cooling. Being a low impact target,
it's probably best to wait and see how things develop and visit
again as we get closer to each morning.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)
Issued at 1246 AM CDT Mon Nov 1 2021

VFR conditions will generally prevail across western and central
ND through the 06Z TAF period. Partly to mostly cloudy conditions
will occur through much of the period, along with a chance for
isolated snow flurries. Not expecting any impacts from this at
this time however. Have introduced VCSH for the snow flurry
potential.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

UPDATE...NH
SHORT TERM...TWH
LONG TERM...TWH
AVIATION...NH

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
1240 AM CDT Mon Nov 1 2021

NDZ001>005-009>013-017>023-025-031>037-040>048-050-051-020545-
Divide-Burke-Renville-Bottineau-Rolette-Williams-Mountrail-Ward-
McHenry-Pierce-McKenzie-Dunn-Mercer-Oliver-McLean-Sheridan-Wells-
Foster-Golden Valley-Billings-Stark-Morton-Burleigh-Kidder-
Stutsman-Slope-Hettinger-Grant-Bowman-Adams-Sioux-Emmons-Logan-
La Moure-McIntosh-Dickey-
1240 AM CDT Mon Nov 1 2021 /1140 PM MDT Sun Oct 31 2021/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of north central
North Dakota, northwest North Dakota, south central North Dakota,
southeast North Dakota, and southwest North Dakota.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed.