This storm system moved out of the Rockies, and into the Upper Midwest late Tuesday night, and into Wednesday, February 20th. Deep moisture was present during the onset of this storm, which allowed for much higher snowfall rates.
Every event with a place to put it; 7 filed by county or forecast zone are drawn at its center, in a lighter ring. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS MPX wrote it up.
This storm system moved out of the Rockies, and into the Upper Midwest late Tuesday night, and into Wednesday, February 20th. Deep moisture was present during the onset of this storm, which allowed for much higher snowfall rates. There was also ample upper level jet energy that was coupled with mid-level forcing during the overnight and early morning hours of Wednesday February 20th. There was also the presence of gulf moisture that interacted with the storm early in the development. The surface low was weak, and moved overhead across southern Minnesota during the morning of Wednesday, February 20th.
Snowfall amounts had already reached 6 inches in portions of west central Wisconsin by 10 am. The heaviest snowfall, with rates of 1 inch per hour occurred between 6 am and 2 pm. The highest total was 11 inches near Dallas, in Barron County.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Twin Cities, MN wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Feb 19, 9:57 PM CST, 4 hours 3 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
957 PM CST Tue Feb 19 2019
.UPDATE...For 06Z Aviation discussion below
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday night)
Issued at 416 PM CST Tue Feb 19 2019
The forecast remains on track for a significant winter storm to
impact the local area beginning overnight and lasting through the
day on Wednesday. We expanded the Winter Storm Warning slightly to
the west to include a line from Mille Lacs Lake through Sauk Center
and Madison. 6-10" of snow is expected in the Warning area. Farther
west, a Winter Weather Advisory is in effect for the Alexandria area
where 3-6" of snow is expected.
The approaching storm is pivoting over the CO/NM region as of this
afternoon with the upper level closed low anchored north of there.
This system will be on a strengthening trend tonight into tomorrow,
which bodes well for strong forcing associated with it. The upper
trough will begin taking on a negative tilt tonight as the jet
streak to our south intensifies quickly overnight. Forcing with this
system will be deep, with strong theta-e advection and isentropic
ascent expected to move in ahead of the negatively tilting 500mb
trough and PV anomaly. The strengthening jet further aids in deep
forcing as differential divergence increases into southern MN
rapidly after midnight. There is good agreement in the models that
the strong forcing will lift through mainly during the morning
hours, and thermal profiles in the 600-700mb layer point toward
fairly high ratios with forcing maxing out for a period of time
within the DGZ. Hence, feel confident in raising snow amounts and
QPF for the morning period. The reason snow amounts aren't even
higher that the system will move through fairly quickly. In terms of
rates, expect 2"/hr rates are achievable for a a couple hours during
the morning commute.
In terms of other impacts, winds should be fairly tame, 10-15 MPH at
their height as the surface low won't be all that deep. Blowing snow
is not expected to be an impact. Temperatures will warm to the mid
to upper 20s during the afternoon and snow will be on a diminishing
trend, especially after 3PM. The evening commute could still be
slow, but conditions will be rapidly improving by then.
.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 416 PM CST Tue Feb 19 2019
The long term pattern is expected to continue to shatter February
snowfall records.
A period of tranquil weather will occur Thursday into early
Friday while the beginnings of the next winter storm will be
taking shape over the southwestern U.S. The main wave won't be
impacting the area until later Saturday. However, there's another
wave expected to ripple northeast in the southwest flow Friday and
Friday night. This round will impact primarily western and
central MN as isentropic lift begins to increase and the snow
focuses along a stationary front from the western high Plains up
through northeastern MN. There could be a few inches with this
round before the wave moves off and snow dissipates late Friday
night into early Saturday.
The potent longwave trough over the desert southwest will
eventually kick out across the southern Rockies and reach the
central Plains Saturday, rapidly becoming negatively tilted as it
does so. This is a great precursor for significant deepening of
the surface low and this one will be no different. The Canadian
model exhibits bombogenesis with the system Saturday from a 1004
mb low at 12Z Saturday over northern OK, to 974mb near Green Bay,
WI - a deepening of 30 mb in 24 hours! The ECMWF doesn't quite
meet bombogenesis criteria of 24 mb in 24 hrs, but does deepen the
surface low from 1001 mb to 979 mb.
There are several things to watch with this one. First, the track
is still uncertain and models are continue shifting around with
each run. The good news is they have stopped giving and taking the
system away depending on how they handle the mid level energy.
The envelope with the deterministic guidance has been closing
some as well, although this may not be the case with the ensembles.
Second, these highly negatively-tilted systems tend to migrate
northward as time closes in. Right now the heaviest snow is
progged to fall from eastern Nebraska to southeastern MN and
northern WI, but this is obviously subject to change. Third, the
amount of moisture with this system will be quite high and
moisture advection is expected to be impressive given the wind
field. Therefore, we may have to contend with mixed precip or rain
across portions of the area depending how far north the system
tracks. And finally, we should have wind and blowing snow issues
to contend with given the deepening trend of the cyclone. Blizzard
conditions are probable in some sections of the CWA. Between the
system Wednesday and the one this weekend which itself could
bring a foot or more, we may crush the February record by 10 to
15 inches in some areas by early next week.
There are signs of another system impacting the region next week,
but consistency at that range is poor. What is certain is much
below normal temperatures will continue into early March.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night)
Issued at 957 PM CST Tue Feb 19 2019
Snow will overspread the area during the overnight hours, with
widespread IFR/LIFR conditions expected to develop between 09Z and
12Z. Snowfall accumulations of 1-2 inches per hour will be
possible. Snow continues on Wednesday afternoon, but improvement
to MVFR is expected. Snow tapers off Wednesday evening.
KMSP...
10Z onset of snow still looks good, with rapid deterioration to
LIFR (by 12Z). The snow will be heavy at times through the
morning, with visibility reductions to 1/4SM the most likely
between 14Z and 18Z.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
Thu...MVFR cigs possible. Wind WSW 5 kts.
Fri...MVFR cigs. -SN/IFR likely late. Wind ESE 5-10 kts.
Sat...MVFR cigs. SN/IFR likely late. Wind E 5 kts becoming NW
10-20kts.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...Winter Storm Warning from 3 AM to 9 PM CST Wednesday for WIZ014-
023>026-028.
Winter Storm Warning from 6 AM Wednesday to midnight CST
Wednesday night for WIZ015-016-027.
MN...Winter Storm Warning until 6 PM CST Wednesday for MNZ049-054>060-
064>070-073>078-082>085-091>093.
Winter Weather Advisory from 3 AM to 6 PM CST Wednesday for
MNZ041>043-047-048.
Winter Storm Warning from 3 AM to 9 PM CST Wednesday for MNZ044-
045-050>053-061>063.
&&
SHORT TERM...SPD
LONG TERM...BORGHOFF
AVIATION...LSHazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN 336 PM CST Tue Feb 19 2019 MNZ044-045-049>070-073>078-082>085-091>093-WIZ014>016-023>028- 202145- Mille Lacs-Kanabec-Stearns-Benton-Sherburne-Isanti-Chisago- Lac Qui Parle-Swift-Chippewa-Kandiyohi-Meeker-Wright-Hennepin- Anoka-Ramsey-Washington-Yellow Medicine-Renville-McLeod-Sibley- Carver-Scott-Dakota-Redwood-Brown-Nicollet-Le Sueur-Rice-Goodhue- Watonwan-Blue Earth-Waseca-Steele-Martin-Faribault-Freeborn-Polk- Barron-Rusk-St. Croix-Pierce-Dunn-Pepin-Eau Claire- 336 PM CST Tue Feb 19 2019 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central and southern Minnesota...and west central Wisconsin. .DAY ONE...Tonight A Winter Storm Warning goes into effect late tonight. Please refer to the Winter Weather Message for additional details. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday The Winter Storm Warning will continue through Wednesday. Please refer to the Winter Weather Message for additional details. Another round of accumulating snow will impact mostly central and western Minnesota Friday and Friday night. A few inches are possible. A significant winter storm is possible Saturday into early Sunday. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotters and snowfall observers are urged to report snowfall amounts to the National Weather Service. MNZ041>043-047-048-202145- Douglas-Todd-Morrison-Stevens-Pope- 336 PM CST Tue Feb 19 2019 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central Minnesota and west central Minnesota. .DAY ONE...Tonight A Winter Weather Advisory goes into effect late tonight. Please refer to the Winter Weather Message for additional details. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday A Winter Weather Advisory will continue through Wednesday. Please refer to the Winter Weather Message for additional details. Another round of accumulating snow will impact mostly central and western Minnesota Friday and Friday night. A few inches are possible. A significant winter storm is possible Saturday into early Sunday. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotters and snowfall observers are urged to report snowfall amounts to the National Weather Service. Borghoff
The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
7 winter storm. Local standard time, as filed.
Several trained weather observers, and the general public measured between 6 and 9 inches of snow that fell across the county. The highest measured report was 9.0 inches near Prescott. The heaviest snowfall occurred during the morning with snowfall rates of 1 inch per hour.
Several trained weather observers, and the general public measured between 6 and 9 inches of snow that fell across the county. The highest measured report was 9.0 inches near Hudson. The heaviest snowfall occurred during the morning with snowfall rates of 1 inch per hour.
Several trained weather observers, and the general public measured between 6 and 9 inches of snow that fell across the county. The heaviest snowfall occurred during the morning, and early afternoon with snowfall rates of 1 inch per hour.
Several trained weather observers, and the general public measured between 8 and 11 inches of snow that fell across the county. The highest measured report was 11.0 inches near Dallas. The heaviest snowfall occurred during the morning and early afternoon with snowfall rates of 1 inch per hour.
Several trained weather observers, and the general public measured around 6 inches of snow, with the higher totals in the western half of the county. The heaviest snowfall occurred during the morning and early afternoon with snowfall rates of 1 inch per hour.
Several trained weather observers, and the general public measured between 7 and 10 inches of snow that fell across the county. The highest measured report was 9.5 inches near St. Croix Falls. The heaviest snowfall occurred during the morning, and early afternoon with snowfall rates of 1 inch per hour.
Several trained weather observers, and the general public measured between 6 and 9 inches of snow that fell across the county. The heaviest snowfall occurred during the morning, and early afternoon with snowfall rates of 1 inch per hour.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Wisconsin in 2019Every state in 2019This day in weather historyWarnings in Wisconsin, February 2019
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 802881, 802894, 802884, 802882, 802883, 802893, 802895.