On February 19, 2019, a broad upper trough dipped south to the Gulf of Mexico and carried abundant amounts of moisture towards the Ohio Valley. 5 to 3 of rainfall along the Mississippi and Ohio River Valleys.
Every event with a place to put it. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS LMK wrote it up.
On February 19, 2019, a broad upper trough dipped south to the Gulf of Mexico and carried abundant amounts of moisture towards the Ohio Valley. Once the moisture was transport was underway, isentropic lift caused 1.5 to 3 of rainfall along the Mississippi and Ohio River Valleys. The higher amounts went as far north as south central Indiana.
On the 20th, an upper trough axis and cold front pushed through southern Indiana and central Kentucky. The heaviest rain fell during the morning and into the afternoon hours before tapering off from west to east late on the 20th.
Moving into the 22nd, the upper flow amplified once again with a deep southwest flow aloft. Isentropic lift was underway resulting in widespread light rain pushing northward from Tennessee into Kentucky during the day. By that night, the ridge increased slightly across the region with a surface warm front pushing northward. More moderate to heavy rainfall fell during the night which caused localized flooding.
On the evening of the 23rd, surface low pressure in the vicinity of the Kansas City, MO area with an arcing cold front pushed towards the Mississippi River. This cold front pushed through the region during the night and brought more moderate to heavy |rain along with some thunderstorms.
All this rain and the saturated ground caused many flooding problems around central Kentucky.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Louisville, KY wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Feb 20, 6:13 AM EST, 47 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
613 AM EST Wed Feb 20 2019
...Updated Forecast and Aviation Discussions...
.Forecast Update...
Issued at 600 AM EST Wed Feb 20 2019
Though temperatures are right at freezing in Jefferson county, IN,
dispatchers indicate only a few roads with slick conditions. Will
thus let the Winter Weather Advisory expire there and replace with a
Special Weather Statement. Winds at KIMS finally are turning to
east southeasterly, so temperatures should start nudging upward.
Otherwise, seeing a back edge to this first wave of precip. Cloud
tops are warming some too, so rain rates should come down. Latest
high res guidance indicates we should back fill with another wave of
rain later this morning, so will keep high pops.
&&
.Short Term...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 245 AM EST Wed Feb 20 2019
Wisconsin MIMIC-TPW product showing the plume of moisture that 24
hours ago was pulling in the northwest Gulf of Mexico now is riding
quickly northward up the MS Valley. This feed, along with plenty of
lift across the region will maintain the soaking rains, along with
some rumbles of thunder, across the region today. Confidence is
pretty high in this solution. The plume should push just east of the
region this evening, bringing an end to this first wave of heavier
precipitation.
A warm front, nearing the KY/TN border this hour, will lift north
across our forecast area today. That should allow temperatures to
rise well above normal today...reaching the 50s for most places and
perhaps 60 along that southern border. Winds switching around to
westerly tonight will help lows to get back down to the 30s for most
locations.
As for rainfall totals today...MRMS as of 2 AM EST is showing totals
in our area peaking around 0.75 inch...just a tad above Kentucky
Mesonet stations reported values. Totals over western Kentucky have
been much higher, within the enhanced belt of lift in the right rear
quad of an upper jet over the Midwest. As the low-level jet
continues into our region the next few hours we should see our
numbers go up as well...with around 2 inches possible by day's end
along an axis from Russellville to Bardstown to Cynthiana, KY. This
keeps the concern for flooding going and plan no changes to the
current flood watch.
.Long Term...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 325 AM EST Wed Feb 20 2019
...Additional Heavy Rainfall and Thunderstorms This Weekend...
A brief break in the rain is expected Thursday as sfc high pressure
moves in behind the cold front. Expect temps to drop back into the
mid 40s to low 50s for highs on Thurs. Increasing clouds and rain
showers will make their way back into the area Thu night as a subtle
upper level disturbance pushes northeast into the region.
=============================
Friday through Saturday Night
=============================
Steady rains will slowly creep north along a warm front Fri/Fri
night. A few elevated t-storms may be possible along the warm front
Fri night. Precipitation is expected to be mainly light on Fri and
Fri evening. As the LLJ strengthens and better moisture
transport increases ahead of the potent low pressure system,
moderate steady rains will be possible late Fri night into Sat
morning.
The heaviest rains and best flooding potential still look to be on
Sat into Sat evening as a potent low pressure system pushes
northeast into the Great Lakes region causing a warm front to lift
north over our area early Sat and then pushing a cold front through
Sat evening. Copious amounts of rain are expected in steady rains
and t-storms. 1-2+" of rain can be expected across the area Sat/Sat
night which will most likely cause flooding problems on already very
saturated soils. River and areal flooding are likely and flash
flooding will be possible in t-storms. Total rainfall Fri through
Sat night looks to range from 1.5-3+".
Saturday's low pressure system will also pose a severe weather risk
as this dynamic system crosses the region. Soundings indicate a
very strong wind profile in place including the exit region of a
strengthening 140kt upper level jet and a 60-70kt low level jet.
With all of the rain/clouds Sat morning, the lack of instability may
pose a challenge. However, the 0Z model runs did speed up the
timing with this weather system which brings a thin area of SBCAPE
into our region Sat late afternoon/evening mainly to the I-65
corridor and west. Confidence in timing is still low-medium but the
potential window for a severe weather episode looks possible at this
time for southern IN/central KY especially along and west of I-65.
Cellular structures look possible with this storm system and could
produce damaging winds.
In the warm sector Sat, temps will rise well into the 60s
approaching 70 over southern KY.
Sunday - Tuesday...
Sat night into Sunday SW-W winds look pretty gusty. Expect wind
gusts to around 35-40+ mph which may eventually warrant a wind
advisory. Sun/Mon look dry and cooler. There is potential for
another weather system to impact the area Tuesday but confidence is
low with a large model spread in day 7.
&&
.Aviation...(12Z TAF Issuance)
Updated at 610 AM EST Wed Feb 20 2019
Rainy pattern for this TAF, with steady lift along a warm front
moving north across the region today. Seeing a brief back edge to
precip at HNB...perhaps getting to SDF in an hour or two. Expect
some back filling of rains though. Thus have lower ceilings and
visibilities, likely into the IFR range at times through the
afternoon. Winds will shift around from easterly right now to
southerly by afternoon and then westerly tonight. Rain chances
should end this evening, with slowly improving ceilings. Cannot rule
out some lightning at any of the sites, but confidence in
timing/location too low to put into any one terminal right now. Will
update as confidence increases.
&&
.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...Flood Watch through Thursday morning for INZ090>092.
KY...Flood Watch through Thursday morning for KYZ023>031-033>043-
045>049-053>057-061>067-070>078-081-082.
&&
Update...RJS
Short Term...RJS
Long Term...AMS
Aviation...RJSHazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Louisville KY 357 AM EST Wed Feb 20 2019 INZ076>079-083-084-089>092-KYZ023>043-045>049-053>057-061>067- 070>078-081-082-210900- Orange-Washington-Scott-Jefferson-Dubois-Crawford-Perry-Harrison- Floyd-Clark-Hancock-Breckinridge-Meade-Ohio-Grayson-Hardin- Bullitt-Oldham-Trimble-Henry-Shelby-Franklin-Spencer-Anderson- Woodford-Fayette-Bourbon-Nicholas-Nelson-Mercer-Jessamine-Larue- Marion-Boyle-Garrard-Madison-Butler-Edmonson-Hart-Green-Taylor- Casey-Lincoln-Logan-Warren-Simpson-Allen-Barren-Monroe-Metcalfe- Adair-Russell-Cumberland-Clinton- 357 AM EST Wed Feb 20 2019 /257 AM CST Wed Feb 20 2019/ This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of Indiana, south central Indiana, east central Kentucky, north central Kentucky, northwest Kentucky, and south central Kentucky. .DAY ONE...Today and Tonight Widespread rains will continue most of the day today. Areas that receive heavier rains could see flash flood conditions, but in general expect minor ponding on area roadways and rises on area creeks and streams. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday Additional waves of rainfall are likely Friday through Saturday night. This rain will exacerbate ongoing river flooding. A strong low pressure system may bring strong to severe thunderstorms and windy conditions Saturday afternoon into Sunday. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotters are welcome to report any wintry weather from last evening as well as overnight rainfall totals and any flooding conditions today. RJS/AMS
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
555 AM EST WED FEB 20 2019
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0554 AM FLOOD 1 SSE HUNTINGBURG 38.29N 86.96W
02/20/2019 DUBOIS IN 911 CALL CENTER
ROAD CLOSED ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF HUNTINGBURG
DUE TO FLOODING.
&&
AMSSpecial Weather Statement National Weather Service Louisville KY 557 AM EST Wed Feb 20 2019 INZ078-079-KYZ032-201300- Scott-Jefferson-Trimble- Including the cities of Scottsburg, Madison, Bedford, and Milton 557 AM EST Wed Feb 20 2019 ...A Few Slick Spots Possible Over the Next Hour or Two... As warmer air tries to build into the region, temperatures hovering near freezing with light to moderate rain in the area likely will mean a few slick spots are possible on area roadways, especially on elevated surfaces, bridges and overpasses. Take caution while driving over the next couple of hours. RJS
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
621 AM EST WED FEB 20 2019
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0615 AM HEAVY RAIN 1 E CENTRAL 38.10N 86.13W
02/20/2019 M2.01 INCH HARRISON IN PUBLIC
MEASURED AT PRIVATE WEATHER STATION.
&&
RJSPRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
622 AM EST WED FEB 20 2019
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0622 AM HEAVY RAIN 3 NNE NEW MIDDLETOWN 38.20N 86.04W
02/20/2019 M2.44 INCH HARRISON IN PUBLIC
MEASURED AT PRIVATE WEATHER STATION.
&&
RJSPRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
631 AM EST WED FEB 20 2019
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0600 AM HEAVY RAIN 3 ENE FALLS OF ROUGH 37.62N 86.50W
02/20/2019 M2.03 INCH BRECKINRIDGE KY OTHER FEDERAL
AUTOMATED GAUGE AT ROUGH RIVER LAKE NEAR
HARDINSBURG.
&&
RJSPRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
642 AM EST WED FEB 20 2019
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0630 AM NON-TSTM WND DMG 2 SE VALLEY STATION 38.08N 85.83W
02/20/2019 JEFFERSON KY BROADCAST MEDIA
REPORTED AT BLEVINS GAP ROAD, BLOCKING THE
ROAD. PEAK WIND GUSTS IN THE REGION IN THE
30 TO 40 MPH RANGE.
&&
RJSThe Louisville radar (KLVX), 31 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 11:57 UTC.
26 flash flood, 12 flood. Local standard time, as filed.
High water closed Kentucky 261 between mile markers 15 and 16.
Kentucky 2785 was closed due to high water between mile markers 2.5 and 2.6.
There was an underpass blocked by high water.
There were a few roads with water over them in Nicholas County.
High water closed Silas Road and Collins Road near Silas Creek.
Kentucky 640 was closed due to high water. Several other rural roads in the county had water over them.
Roads were reported to be flooded.
Short Creek was flowing over the road at the intersection of Highway 79 and Highway 54.
Logan County Dispatch reported that several roads across the city and county were closed due to high water.
Water was reported over the road at Whitney Road and Parkhurst Road.
A bridge on Blackgold-Grassland Road had to be closed due to high water.
Water was rushing over Lawler Bend Road. There was another road closed on KY 1140.
Roads were closed due to flooding.
Road was closed due to flooding.
The Kentucky 214 ferry was closed due to flooding.
Kentucky 103 was closed between mile marker 0 and 1.5 due to flooding.
Kentucky 1435 was closed between mile marker 11 and 12 due to flooding.
A driver reported fast flowing water over Highway 61 between Greensburg and Columbia. Emergency crews were en route to close the roadway.
Emergency services were en route to perform a swift water rescue on a stranded motorist on Salem Church Road.
It was reported that 12 roads had to be closed throughout the county from a combination of flash flooding, areal flooding, and river flooding.
Ten inches of water was reported over road 1/2 mile from 106 and 1153 intersection near Alum Creek.
Several roads throughout the county had to be closed due to high water.
Pictures showed that roads in Garrard County were impassible due to standing water.
Dickens Chapel Road was closed due to flooding.
Standing water was reported near Altamont and Race Streets in Richmond.
There was a water rescue on Tates Creek Road.
A water rescue took place on Copper Creek Road.
Kentucky 2592 at Highway is impassable due to flooding. Highway 73 is still open.
Pictures showed flooding in a neighborhood in the Chilesburg, Kentucky area.
Pictures showed cars driving through flooding around Fairview Plaza in Bowling Green, Kentucky.
Water was moving swiftly along Hunter Lane, Union City, Tates Creek Road, and Catalpa Loop in the city of Richmond.
Road were affected by flooding.
Flooding was reported on Sloan Fork Road near Sloan Fork. Flooding was also reported in Yosemite near Breeden.
Five roads had to be closed in the county due to flooding. Several more had been closed since Friday.
Several roads in the county had water covering them, especially on the northeast side in the Plum Springs Area near Moorman Lane.
A water rescue took place on Frog Branch Road.
Hall Gaddie was closed due to high water.
Phillips Lane in Hodgenville and Highway 222 were underwater.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Kentucky in 2019Every state in 2019This day in weather historyWarnings in Kentucky, February 2019
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 800116, 800092, 800113, 800110, 800112, 800093, 800058, 800059, 800060, 800061, 800062, 800063, 800064, 800065, 800068, 800069, 800070, 800071, 800073, 800075, 800078, 800080, 800094, 800081, 800096, 800098, 800082, 800083, 800101, 800104, 800084, 800085, 800086, 800087, 800108, 800088, 800089, 800090.