Periods of rain worked back into eastern Kentucky early on February 20 as a warm frontal boundary lifted north across the Commonwealth. A cold front brought additional rainfall through the afternoon and evening, before drier conditions worked into eastern Kentucky during the morning of February 21.
Every event with a place to put it. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS JKL wrote it up.
Periods of rain worked back into eastern Kentucky early on February 20 as a warm frontal boundary lifted north across the Commonwealth. A cold front brought additional rainfall through the afternoon and evening, before drier conditions worked into eastern Kentucky during the morning of February 21.
Rain quickly spread back north that evening into the 22nd with southeastern Kentucky continuing to see prolonged light rain into the afternoon of the 23rd. A cold front brought additional rain to much of eastern Kentucky late on the 23rd.
A spike in moisture ahead of this front resulted in additional moderate to heavy rain and high rainfall rates across portions of eastern Kentucky late on the 23rd. The convection ahead of the cold front that evening resulted in the majority of the flooding and flash flooding issues across eastern Kentucky. Showers and thunderstorms capable of heavy rainfall trained over parts of Wayne, Pulaski, Rockcastle, and other counties along the I-75 corridor, resulting in deadly flash flooding and river flooding along the Cumberland River. Later in the evening, the bulk of the rainfall shifted north to counties along the Mountain Parkway. Flash flooding and river flooding occurred in Powell, Wolfe, Breathitt, Magoffin, and Johnson Counties. Lighter rainfall continued into the night as flooding issues remained widespread into the 24th.
Rainfall amounts from this event ranged from near 2 inches in portions of the Bluegrass region and northeast Kentucky, to greater than 4 inches across locations in southern and southeast Kentucky.
This additional water on top of saturated ground continued to promote mud and rock slides across eastern Kentucky, complete with power outages from fallen debris and trees. Pikeville experienced a massive rockslide early on February 22, resulting in several cars and a building being damaged. Other impacts included countless roads being inundated with standing water, pavement and water pipes breaking, water threatening homes, roads and bridges being washed away, and rising lake levels.
Of the 33 counties across eastern Kentucky, at least 27 were forced to declare State of Emergencies due to rainfall during and before this event. This included Knott County due to over $150,000 in county road damages. Beattyville, Clay City, Harlan, Hazard, Jenkins, Monticello, Paintsville, Pikeville, Salyersville, Stanton, West Liberty, and Whitesburg also declared State of Emergencies. Additionally, the Kentucky Governor declared a State of Emergency across the entire Commonwealth.
The persistent rainfall of the winter season and the amount of rainfall from this event led to Lake Cumberland reporting their highest lake level of 756.52 feet on February 26th, breaking the old record of 751.69 feet dating back to May 1984. As a result, Wolf Creek Dam had to release at a record discharge level of 59,880 cubic feet per second. Cave Run Lake also rose to within 6 feet of their record pool elevation. Buckhorn Lake came within 10 feet of their all-time record, partially resulting in Kentucky Highway 257 near Confluence having flood waters cover the highway isolating 40 to 50 families for three weeks following the end of the flooding rains.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Jackson, KY wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Feb 20, 7:33 AM EST, 1 hour 27 minutes earlier.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED National Weather Service Jackson KY 733 AM EST Wed Feb 20 2019 .UPDATE... Issued at 725 AM EST WED FEB 20 2019 Hourly grids were updated to account for recent observations and the trend of the band of moderate to at times heavy rain with embedded thunderstorms into the region this morning, though areas near the VA border should remain largely dry. Some thunder has been detected across the far north over the past hour and just west of the CWA in Fayette and Clark counties. Additional thunder is also being detected over south central KY and across much of middle and western TN south into MS. This led to raising chances for thunder through early afternoon across the north and west based on recent trends. A possible decrease in coverage remains in the guidance from early to mid afternoon with the rain becoming more showery. Coverage should become closer to 100 percent coverage again late this afternoon and evening as a mid level shortwave and associated cold front approach and move across the area. This activity should be accompanied by some isolated thunder as well. && .SHORT TERM...(Today through Thursday) Issued at 445 AM EST WED FEB 20 2019 Temperatures have risen to 33 or higher across the northwest counties with dewpoints climbing to about 33 ending the threat for any freezing rain. Thus the winter weather advisory was allowed to expire at 4 AM EST. The focus for rainfall and the best moisture transport has been largely west of the region overnight and with the steadier rain beginning to move to the east and northeast a period of more scattered showers is expected for at least part of the morning. Rainfall since Wednesday has generally ranged from about a third of an inch with some downslope influence in Pike County at the KY Mesonet station near Flatwoods to around 1 inch on the top of Black Mountain. Much of the area has average about a half to three quarters of an inch with the highest amounts near the TN border and northeast along the VA border in the Cumberland River basin. However, as the axis of the mid level ridge that currently extends northwest into the eastern Great Lakes from a center to the east of the Bahamas moves on off to the northeast and an upper low moves across the Dakotas and associated mid level trough moves into the MS Valley, the plume of deeper moisture will shift further east across central KY and into eastern KY with moisture transport again increasing toward midday into the afternoon hours before moving east of the area tonight. Meanwhile at the surface, low pressure is expected to track into the western Great Lakes this evening and then across the Great Lakes and Ontario and into Quebec by dawn on Thursday. This will occur in concert with a mid level shortwave trough. As the low level jet and moisture transport increases MUCCAPES in the 1000 to 500 mb layer increase a bit and given that some thunder has occurred to the west and southwest of the area overnight, some elevated thunder probably in the isolated to scattered coverage range may occur with chances shifting east across the area this afternoon to early evening. Locations that experience multiple thunderstorms could receive locally higher amounts. The ground remains saturated from rainfall overnight and the ongoing wet period extending back into 2018. The axis of the mid level shortwave trough will move east of the area by around dawn on Thursday, with drier weather follow briefly as high pressure builds into the area from the MS Valley. This drier weather will be short lived as moisture and the threat of rain, possibly heavy returns early in the long term period. As for temperatures, the region will get into the warm sector today and highs should reach the low 50s to around 60 degree range. Lows tonight will be coldest in the northwest and warmest in the southeast due to the passing cold front. Some sunshine is expected during the day on Thursday, but clouds ahead of the system to affect the region early in the long term period should be thickening and lowering by mid to late on Thursday afternoon. Even at that, highs should average near to about 5 degrees above average for the third week of February. .LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Tuesday) Issued at 315 AM EST WED FEB 20 2019 A surface front will remain stationary just to our south at the start of the period with a baroclinic zone across the boundary. A vort max will push northward across the region Thursday night and could spread some overrunning precipitation into eastern Kentucky. GFS has precipitation possibly reaching as far north as Fleming county, but other model guidance keeps the better rain chances to the south. With this in mind, will go with a gradient in pops from south to north for Thursday night and continue that into Friday. The boundary will eventually lift north as a warm front late Friday and Friday night with widespread rain spreading across the area as the moisture transport increases over the area. Very high PW's for this time of year combined with the warm front over the region will lead to another round of potentially heavy rainfall. The 00z ECMWF came in very wet for much of the area, with the GFS not quite as aggressive. Either way, it won't take much given the rainfall with the current event to aid in a flooding risk this weekend. Will highlight the flood potential in the HWO and start to highlight with web graphics/social media. A cold front will then cross the area Saturday night. A ribbon of elevated instability will accompany the front allowing for a chance for some thunder as the front pushes through. It is possible, but not likely that a some sfc instability could develop and if that were to happen, there could be a severe threat with damaging wind most probable threat. However, still a great deal of uncertainty with how much surface instability can be realized. Something we will certainly monitor going forward. We may actually see an uptick in temperatures Saturday evening ahead of the front, before temperatures come crashing back down by dawn on Sunday. Precipitation should be exiting the area by dawn with much drier air advecting into the region to finish the weekend. Models still have potential for another shot of rain Tuesday, but at this time, it looks like a much weaker chance and in fact, 00z model guidance showed very little over our area. Thus, perhaps a much needed longer stretch of dry weather could be in store for next week. && .AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday morning) ISSUED AT 730 AM EST WED FEB 20 2019 A mixture of VFR and MVFR was reported at issuance time for more southern locations with MVFR and IFR in the north which at times as been down to near or below airport mins. After the steadier rain band had shifted a bit north and west of the area, it has moved back into western and northern sections. Some isolated thunder is embedded as well. Far southeastern sections nearer the VA may remain dry with VFR for much of the first 6 hours of the period while the TAF sites themselves other than perhaps SJS experience MVFR vis and or cigs with at least brief IFR during some of the heavier showers as the band of showers pushes to the east though it may tend to weaken toward 18Z. During the 17Z to 21Z period some improvement back to VFR is possible at JKL and LOZ and perhaps SME. SJS should remain VFR with SYM experiencing persistent MVFR to at times IFR. Strong winds aloft and relatively light winds outside of the high terrain will lead to a threat of LLWS across the area until the cold front nears 0Z to 3Z. Winds will generally be around 5 to 10 knots out of the east to southeast through 15Z, before shifting to more southerly and averaging closer to 10 to 15KT. Winds will become southwesterly closer to the boundary 0 to 4Z and then shift to the west and northwest to end the period and decrease in speed. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Flood Watch through Thursday morning for KYZ044-050>052-058>060- 068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120. && UPDATE...JP SHORT TERM...JP LONG TERM...KAS AVIATION...JP
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Jackson KY 429 AM EST Wed Feb 20 2019 KYZ044-050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120-211230- Fleming-Montgomery-Bath-Rowan-Estill-Powell-Menifee-Rockcastle- Jackson-Pulaski-Laurel-Wayne-McCreary-Whitley-Knox-Bell-Harlan- Elliott-Morgan-Johnson-Wolfe-Magoffin-Floyd-Lee-Breathitt-Knott- Owsley-Perry-Clay-Leslie-Letcher-Martin-Pike- Including the cities of Flemingsburg, Camargo, Jeffersonville, Mount Sterling, Owingsville, Morehead, Irvine, Ravenna, Clay City, Stanton, Frenchburg, Brodhead, Mount Vernon, McKee, Annville, Burnside, Somerset, London, Monticello, Stearns, Whitley City, Corbin, Williamsburg, Barbourville, Middlesboro, Pineville, Cumberland, Harlan, Sandy Hook, West Liberty, Paintsville, Campton, Salyersville, Prestonsburg, Wheelwright, Beattyville, Jackson, Hindman, Pippa Passes, Booneville, Hazard, Manchester, Hyden, Jenkins, Whitesburg, Inez, Coal Run, Elkhorn City, Pikeville, and South Williamson 429 AM EST Wed Feb 20 2019 ...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING... This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of eastern Kentucky. .DAY ONE...Today and Tonight. Rounds of moderate to at times heavy rain are expected through tonight. This additional rainfall on already saturated ground will bringing a threat of flooding to creeks, streams, and rivers across the area. A few thunderstorms will also be possible this afternoon into evening. Please see the latest Flood Watch for more information. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday. High water is expected on portions of the Kentucky and Cumberland Rivers into the the weekend. Additional rounds of moderate to heavy rainfall could bring a renewed threat of flooding this weekend. Thunderstorms are possible Saturday night. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotters are encouraged to report observed rainfall and any reports of flooding over the next few days. JP/KAS
The Jackson,KY radar (KJKL), 52 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 14:02 UTC.
38 flood, 34 heavy rain, 13 flash flood. Local standard time, as filed.
Broadcast media reported that a long-standing mudslide once again began to move downhill between Prestonsburg and Allen following additional rainfall. Kentucky Highway 1428 was once more closed as a result.
Local media reported that erosion from previous rain led to a water line break in Manchester, forcing the city to issue a boil water advisory.
Broadcast media relayed a report of flooding on Kentucky Highway 26 and U.S. Highway 25 north of Williamsburg.
A local media affiliate observed a transformer explosion in Hazard, caused by a fallen tree off of a saturated hill.
A citizen observed water over a road near Wildie, resulting in the closure of the road.
Local media relayed a report of flooding on Kentucky Highway 194 at Jackson's Branch and Lower John's Creek east of McCombs.
A local media outlet relayed a report of water over a road near Judy as well as water inundating both lanes of Aarons Run Road outside of Sideview.
A citizen relayed a report of water over Smith Branch Road southeast of Jackson.
A local media affiliate reported flooding throughout the county, including on Kentucky Highway 7 at Puncheon.
A media affiliate reported flooding on Kentucky Highway 779 at the Cumberland River Bridge west of Gausdale.
Dispatch reported water over Adams Ridge Road outside of Clay City, making the road impassable.
A media affiliate reported flooded streets in and around Manchester.
A local media outlet relayed a report of a substantial rockslide early in the morning of February 22, resulting from continued rainfall over the past few days. Rocks fell onto several cars and also damaged the building of a wrecker service business. This slowed down traffic onto South Mayo Trail.
Local media reported that Kentucky Highways 11 and 459 south of Barbourville both had sections closed due to standing water.
Local media reported flooding near Ravenna on Kentucky Highways 1571 and 1645. This also caused homes to be surrounded by water as the Kentucky River crested.
A local media affiliate reported water over the road, forcing the closure of one lane of Kentucky Highway 15 between Vicco and Sassafras.
The Department of Highways reported that heavy rain once again resulted in a mudslide along Kentucky Highway 451 near the community of Christopher.
Local media reported flooding between Stanton and Clay City along Kentucky Highway 2026.
Broadcast media reported water on Kentucky Highways 1107 and 581 from Thealka to Thelma.
Local media reported mudslides across a large portion of the county, including Kentucky Highway 2029 southwest of Bolyn and Kentucky Highway 550 west of Hindman where a power pole was knocked down. This latter slide was near Hindman Elementary School, resulting in power to the school being knocked out.
A local newspaper relayed a report of a mudslide blocking Kentucky Highway 7 near the Letcher County line, while a mudslide was also reported to have disrupted power near Emmalena. This former slide caused impacts for both the roadway and adjacent train tracks.
A citizen passed along that Noeville Hollow Road southeast of Barbourville was under water and impassable.
A local media outlet relayed a report of water from Clear Creek rising to cover a portion of Kentucky Highway 721 near Ritchie.
A citizen observed water over a roadway at Lake Linville.
A citizen reported water over Grace Loop Road near Roundstone, forcing the closure of the road.
A trained spotter observed water over Kentucky Highway 2011 near Mud Lick Branch Road south of Beverly.
Dispatch reported water over Sallys Branch Road east of London.
Dispatch reported water over Robinson Creek Road south of Lily, causing the road to be impassable.
Local Emergency Management reported that Bucks Branch Road was impassable due to high water west of Martin.
The Kentucky Transportation Cabinet reported a rockslide on Kentucky Highway 40 northeast of Salyersville, resulting from repeated rounds of rainfall.
Department of Highway officials reported a pavement break, resulting from recent heavy rain, on Kentucky Highway 167 north of the Tennessee state line. The road was reduced to one lane for several days.
The U.S. Army Corps of Engineers and Kentucky State Emergency Management reported near-record water levels on Lake Cumberland. This resulted in the closure of a few marinas near Burnside, as well as nearby roads.
Local media reported at least 30 rock and mud slides in and around Whitesburg and throughout the county, along with pavement breaks. A slide in Whitesburg caused Main Street to be shutdown for a couple of weeks to ensure its structural integrity.
A trained spotter reported water over Granny Holt Knob Road along Osborne Creek southwest of Hollyhill.
A trained spotter observed water covering Kentucky Highway 1427 east of Bonanza.
Local media reported flooding in Archer Park in Prestonsburg, due in part to the rising of the Levisa Fork of the Big Sandy River. A few small mudslides were also noted in vicinity of the area.
Local media reported flooding in the Confluence community, resulting from heavy rain and water backup from Buckhorn Lake's dam. Several homes were surrounded by flood waters, while Kentucky Highway 257 and other nearby roads were inundated for more than 2 weeks following the end of the heavier rainfall and more widespread flooding issues.
Local media reported that a mudslide shut down a portion of Kentucky Highway 52 near Oakdale.
A trained spotter reported a mudslide on Hospital Hill in Hyden, due to recent persistent rainfall.
Emergency Management relayed a report of Laurel River Lake beginning to fill up and rise over the spillway.
A trained spotter observed a rock slide on Kentucky Highway 610 in Jonancy due to recent persistent rainfall.
A trained spotter observed a mudslide on Kentucky Highway 194 near the Kellogg's Plant southeast of Meta.
Dispatch and local Emergency Management reported flooding throughout the county, including along Wolf Creek River Road south of Pleasant View.
The Department of Highways reported a slide near the Letcher County School Bus Garage in Whitesburg. This slide also impacted Kentucky Highway 931, forcing the blockage of one lane.
A trained spotter reported flooding south of Somerset near Waitsboro.
A local news media outlet reported that a motorist crashed into Wolf Creek off of Stidham Road south of Cinda. The driver's body was later found trapped inside the car. Additionally, a bystander also died as a result of the flooded creek after he jumped in to try to save the driver. The creek was 3 to 4 times higher than normal, contributing to the death of both men.
Local media reported standing water over Slate Branch Road at Madira Drive in southern Somerset, causing a man to have to be rescued from his car as he bypassed a road closure sign and drove into the water.
Law enforcement reported flooding throughout Monticello. This includes along Kentucky Highways 3284, 92, and 167.
Law enforcement officials and local media relayed a report of a mudslide on Kentucky Highway 92 east of Williamsburg.
Kentucky Transportation Cabinet officials reported Kentucky Highway 3351 underwent a major break in pavement days after heavy rainfall on the 23rd.
The Department of Highways reported a major break in the pavement of Kentucky Highway 267 near Dice, following heavy rain on the 23rd. This forced the closure of the road for several days.
The Department of Highways reported Kentucky Highway 699 dropped 15 to 18 feet over a length of 140 feet at the mouth of Kentucky Highway 221 near the Perry County line.
Local media reported a local bridge off Arrowhead Drive near Kings Creek becoming unstable due to recent rains. This closure of the bridge temporarily trapped three families across the bridge.
A local media outlet reported Kentucky Highway 1524 southeast of Manchester having pavement break due to recent rainfall.
Kentucky Highway 3485 near Frakes was reported by a media outlet to have been damaged from a slide.
The Department of Highways relayed reports of U.S. Highway 421 being blocked on the 24th, due to downed trees and power lines, resulting from previous heavy rainfall.
The Kentucky Transportation Cabinet reported mudslides across the county. These caused the roadway to be reduced to one lane on Kentucky Highways 74, 987, 225, and 1344.
Kentucky Transportation Cabinet officials reported a mudslide on Kentucky Highway 122 south of Prestonsburg, resulting in the road being reduced to one lane.
Law enforcement reported a mudslide on Kentucky Highway 149 southeast of Manchester.
Heavy rain on the evening of February 23rd ultimately led to a rockslide along U.S. Highway 23 near Ivel. The unstable hillside led to the northbound lanes being shutdown on the 24th as the southbound lanes were reconfigured for two-way traffic.
A local media outlet reported mud and rock slides from near the Estill County line on Kentucky Highway 52 to Blaines Branch Road in Beattyville.
Local media reported a mudslide on Kentucky Highway 844 south of West Liberty due to recent heavy rain.
Local media reported flooding on Kentucky Highway 2024 south of Eversole.
An amateur radio operator observed standing water covering the Manchester Street Tunnel just outside of Barbourville.
The Kentucky Transportation Cabinet reported heavy rainfall causing a rockslide, forcing the closure of Mountain Parkway west of Salyersville near mile marker 66. The road reopened early on the morning of the 24th.
The Department of Highways reported a major break in pavement, made worse by heavy rain on February 23rd, on Kentucky Highway 705 near Grassy Creek. This led to an extended closure of the road.
A local media outlet reported recent heavy rainfall being responsible for multiple waterline breaks across the county, including in Paintsville.
Several observers reported flooding in and around Salyersville on the evening of the 23rd into the 24th.
Local media reported standing water on Kentucky Highway 364 northeast of Matthew.
Local media reported flood waters forcing the closure of Chop Bottom Road southeast of Manchester. A vehicle attempting to drive through this became stuck, while the three passengers were rescued by the Manchester Police Department.
A SKYWARN spotter reported water over Kentucky Highways 15 and 613 near Bowen.
The public and an NWS employee reported numerous buildings in Campton being inundated with water. This includes the Chevrolet Dealership as well as a funeral home. Kentucky Highway 191 between Campton and Hazel Green was closed due to water running over the road.
Rapidly rising water entering a nursing home in Salyersville led to its evacuation. Several other buildings and roads near and in Salyersville also experienced water inundation.
A citizen reported quickly flowing water across Mountain Parkway near the Magoffin County line.
Trained spotters observed flowing water over Kentucky Highway 40 near Falcon and Kentucky Highway 7 near Royalton. Swift water rescues were performed at each location.
Dispatch reported nearly 4 feet of water flowing over Kentucky Highway 52 north of Old Landing and near Sandfield.
A spotter observed Millers Creek Road being submerged in rapidly flowing water in Van Lear.
A spotter observed 3-4 foot deep water flowing over Abbott Creek Road near Bonanza. Creekside Subdivision had homes with water entering their crawl spaces, while a truck was picked up by the quickly flowing water.
A trained spotter observed 6 inch deep water flowing over Saltwell Road southwest of Inez.
A portion of Kentucky Highway 1261 in Bethany was covered with flowing water as heavy rain occurred. Additionally, Bethany Christian School experienced water inundation in and around campus. Several footbridges were damaged and destroyed as well as numerous homes having water near and in them.
A National Weather Service employee reported Kentucky Highway 541 at Kentucky Mountain Bible College being inundated by water from the North Fork of the Kentucky River. Portions of Kentucky Highway 205 also remained flooded overnight.
Kentucky Highway 205 north of Jackson was covered with rapidly flowing water during and following heavy rain on top of saturated soil.
A citizen reported water flowing over Kentucky Highway 205 near Lee City. Water depth increased to 4 to 5 feet at one point, causing a car to become submerged. This resulted in a swift water rescue. One home reportedly had water enter into it.
Swift water was observed flowing over the roadway near Grassy Creek by a citizen.
Dispatch reported that several roads experienced swiftly flowing water over them south of Stanton. This includes Campton Road, Pecks Creek Road, and Little Hardwicks Creek Road.
As the offices recorded each death: direct deaths were caused by the weather itself, indirect ones by something it set in motion.
| Event | Date | Age | Sex | Where | Kind |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Flood, Leslie | 2019-02-23 | 60 | Male | Vehicle/Towed Trailer | Direct |
| Flood, Leslie | 2019-02-23 | 58 | Male | In Water | Direct |
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Kentucky in 2019Every state in 2019This day in weather historyWarnings in Kentucky, February 2019
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 797976, 797977, 797985, 797972, 797971, 797983, 797968, 797970, 797981, 797986, 797899, 797978, 797877, 797893, 797979, 797982, 797875, 797984, 797980, 797878, 797879, 797892, 797897, 797967, 797966, 797902, 797900, 797901, 797885, 797874, 797873, 797973, 798120, 797880, 797884, 797974, 797975, 800212, 798122, 798125, and more.