A warm front moved slowly northward from the Gulf Coast states on the night of the 19th, reaching the lower Ohio Valley on the morning of the 20th. This warm front brought the third widespread heavy rainfall event so far in February.
Every event with a place to put it. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS PAH wrote it up.
A warm front moved slowly northward from the Gulf Coast states on the night of the 19th, reaching the lower Ohio Valley on the morning of the 20th. This warm front brought the third widespread heavy rainfall event so far in February. Rainfall totals over a 24-hour period were from 2 to 3 inches in much of western Kentucky, with locally up to 3.5 inches west of Kentucky Lake. This rainfall fell on moist ground, causing many creeks and smaller rivers to flood. The flooding was exacerbated by very high levels on the Ohio and Mississippi Rivers, which caused tributary rivers and creeks to back up into western Kentucky.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Paducah, KY wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Feb 19, 11:53 PM CST, 1 hour 43 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Paducah KY 1153 PM CST Tue Feb 19 2019 .UPDATE... Issued at 1153 PM CST Tue Feb 19 2019 Updated aviation discussion for 06Z TAFs. && .SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Thursday night) Issued at 112 PM CST Tue Feb 19 2019 The Flash Flood watch will be maintained as is. There is still variance in the models. The HREF (ARW/NMM) and WPC suggest best QPF and efficiency over west KY in the same general area previously advertised. However, the HRRR/NAM/CMCreg/GFS and EC suggest a continued westward shift, most notably 00z-06z. We have adjusted our QPF to model consensus, with higher amounts a bit west of WPC. 06z-12z we are more in line across the board. The end result is still 1.5-2" close to the Ohio River, to 2.5 to 3" from the LBL area east to KHOP. Convective element still in play, as Computed LI's from 750mb continue to show elevated instability. Still marginal on the flash aspect. Isolated problems possible, with areal flooding a concern as well. The wintry element is still in play across portions of SEMO, southern IL and southwest IN this evening. A wintry mix initially driven by diabatic processes will transition to some wet snowfall, at times mixed with rain before changing to all rain by midnight as warm air in the boundary layer heads north. Still looking at temps 32-34F at the surface. So again, generally 1 inch or less on mainly grassy and elevated surfaces. Isolated slick spots on area roads if the snow falls hard enough for a short time. There may be one or two spots up along I-64 that tick just above 1". Will continue with the Special Weather Statement approach as we remain below Advisory levels. The overall synoptics are the same. A s/wv lifting NE across the area tonight as the parent trof over the middle of the country lifts northeast and ends up over the Great Lakes and Upper Midwest by 00z Thursday. Rain and isolated thunderstorm chances will continue Wednesday over mainly our east (of I-57 to the MO Bootheel region). We should be dry all areas by the end of the day Wednesday, though some low clouds and drizzle may persist behind the main precip. Thursday should be dry, then Thursday night mid level energy and low trop WAA should result in precipitation to our south, that will lift into the southern 1/2 of our area. Looks like mainly rain at this time. Will monitor to see if there is a mixed element at onset. Should be minor. .LONG TERM...(Friday through Tuesday) Issued at 112 PM CST Tue Feb 19 2019 Confidence in extended continues to increase as models increase in continuity. The southwesterly flow aloft will persist into the early part of the extended. This will facilitate a warm push or warm front lifting into the region. This will bring a chance of rain back to the area at least in the southern portions Friday. By Saturday the front will be well into the region with the associated surface low lifting out of the southwest and into the region. This will be supported by an upper level low that becomes vertically stacked as it moves into the lower Ohio Valley. This often results in a longer residence time over the area. This will bring the best chance of thunderstorms to the region. In fact by Saturday the high temperatures will be in the 60s over most of the area. This alone is enough to heighten the expectation of strong to severe weather for this time of year. There will be a significant low level inversion Saturday morning which should help keep convection elevated. However by afternoon this low level inversion becomes so shallow its almost non existent. In addition the severe parameters continue to rise. with LI's at the surface reaching negative one with elevated LI's to negative 4. Surface based CAPE's reach over 200 even with the extremely shallow inversion. We also have K index values exceeding 30 and Showalters well into the negative range. There could be a few hours of no inversion in the afternoon allowing convection to be surface based. Winds will be fairly unidirectional but we have 40 knots of wind 500 feet above the surface and 50 knots below a thousand feet. We also have 90s knots at 10k feet and increasing with altitude. So there will be a great deal of speed shear Saturday. To add to the chance of severe both the ECMWF and GFS have significant tornado parameters (STP) ranging from 1 to 3.5. Greater than one is favorable for tornado development. The severe threat has even made into SPC's day five outlook which is rare to say the least. On top of that we have the persistent flooding threat. Area rivers are already flooding with scores of closed roads due to flooding. We will have PW's between 1 and 2 inches across the FA with the highest in the south. So flooding will also be a threat this weekend. Current models are advertising an additional 1.5 to nearly 3 inches storm total for this weekend event. By Sunday a cold front will move through bringing much drier weather and near normal temperatures. && .AVIATION... Issued at 1153 PM CST Tue Feb 19 2019 Rain will continue overnight with prevailing MVFR/IFR conditions. Rumbles of thunder will also remain possible, which will increase associated rainfall rates. Even though the bulk of the heavier rain should be over by daybreak or shortly thereafter, scattered light showers or drizzle should continue through much of the morning. Visibilities should gradually improve by midday, but it will likely take until afternoon before ceilings improve from IFR to MVFR category. Slow clearing is expected by late afternoon and evening. Easterly winds tonight will veer south to southwesterly through Wednesday with frontal passage. && .PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IL...None. MO...Flash Flood Watch through Wednesday afternoon for MOZ112-114. IN...None. KY...Flash Flood Watch through Wednesday afternoon for KYZ001>022. &&
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Paducah KY 116 PM CST Tue Feb 19 2019 ILZ075>078-080>094-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ001>022-MOZ076-086-087- 100-107>112-114-201100- Jefferson-Wayne IL-Edwards-Wabash-Perry IL-Franklin-Hamilton- White-Jackson-Williamson-Saline-Gallatin-Union-Johnson-Pope- Hardin-Alexander-Pulaski-Massac-Gibson-Pike-Posey-Vanderburgh- Warrick-Spencer-Fulton-Hickman-Carlisle-Ballard-McCracken-Graves- Livingston-Marshall-Calloway-Crittenden-Lyon-Trigg-Caldwell- Union KY-Webster-Hopkins-Christian-Henderson-Daviess-McLean- Muhlenberg-Todd-Perry MO-Bollinger-Cape Girardeau-Wayne MO-Carter- Ripley-Butler-Stoddard-Scott-Mississippi-New Madrid- 116 PM CST Tue Feb 19 2019 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of southern Illinois, southwest Indiana, western Kentucky, and southeast Missouri. .DAY ONE...This afternoon and Tonight A Flash Flood Watch remains in effect tonight for west Kentucky and southeast Missouri near the bootheel region. Areal flooding and isolated instances of flash flooding will be possible. There continues to be a chance of a light wintry mix then wet snow as precipitation surges north across the area late today and this evening. From portions of southeast Missouri into southern Illinois and southwest Indiana, a minor accumulation of up to 1 inch or so cannot be ruled out on grassy and elevated surfaces. Road conditions for the most part should be fine, though isolated slick spots cannot be ruled out. Minor to moderate flooding continues on most area rivers. Refer to the flood warnings and statements for detailed information. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday A Flash Flood Watch remains in effect over far southeast Missouri and western Kentucky through the day Wednesday, with storm total rainfall from one and a half to to near three inches projected. Refer to the Watch for additional details. There is another chance for heavy rainfall late in the work week and over the weekend. Additionally, the Storm Prediction Center indicates a risk for strong to possibly severe storms Saturday. Minor to moderate flooding remains forecast on most area rivers, and the combined additional effects of these two rounds of rainfall will only serve to aggravate existing flood issues. Refer to the flood warnings, flood statements, and the Hydrological Outlook, for more details. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter reports of precipitation and its impacts this week are appreciated.
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY 918 PM CST Tue Feb 19 2019 ILZ075>078-080>091-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ014-018-019-MOZ076-086- 087-100-107-200800- JEFFERSON-WAYNE IL-EDWARDS-WABASH-PERRY IL-FRANKLIN-HAMILTON- WHITE-JACKSON-WILLIAMSON-SALINE-GALLATIN-UNION-JOHNSON-POPE- HARDIN-GIBSON-PIKE-POSEY-VANDERBURGH-WARRICK-SPENCER-UNION KY- HENDERSON-DAVIESS-PERRY MO-BOLLINGER-CAPE GIRARDEAU-WAYNE MO- CARTER- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF MOUNT VERNON, FAIRFIELD, ALBION, MOUNT CARMEL, PINCKNEYVILLE, WEST FRANKFORT, MCLEANSBORO, CARMI, CARBONDALE, MURPHYSBORO, HERRIN, HARRISBURG, SHAWNEETOWN, JONESBORO, VIENNA, GOLCONDA, ELIZABETHTOWN, FORT BRANCH, PETERSBURG, POSEYVILLE, EVANSVILLE, BOONVILLE, ROCKPORT, MORGANFIELD, HENDERSON, OWENSBORO, PERRYVILLE, MARBLE HILL, CAPE GIRARDEAU, JACKSON, PIEDMONT, AND VAN BUREN 918 PM CST Tue Feb 19 2019 ...Wintry Precipitation Occurring this Evening... A mixture of rain, freezing rain, sleet and even a touch of wet snow is expected into the overnight hours over portions of southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, southwest Indiana and far northwest Kentucky. Surface temperatures are running right at, or slightly above, the freezing mark. These readings should remain fairly steady through around midnight, then begin a very slow rise late night. With temperatures so close to freezing, some icy patches could develop on roadways, especially untreated roadways and elevated roads such as bridges and overpasses. Motorists should slow down and exercise caution, as any icy patches could be very difficult to see. MEFFERT
The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
11 flood. Local standard time, as filed.
Two vehicles were stalled in floodwaters at a railroad underpass in Clinton. Multiple highways were covered by water around the county, especially near flood-prone creeks.
During the height of the heavy rainfall, a couple of flood-prone intersections were flooded in Paducah. Following the heavy rain, creeks remained out of their banks. A few state roads near these flood-prone creeks were closed. These roads included Routes 994 and 1014 at Champion Creek and Route 339 at Mayfield Creek.
Several roads were flooded around the county, mainly in flood-prone areas and near creeks. Water was over Highway 80 just west of U.S. 51 in Arlington.
A street intersection on the south side of Henderson was closed by flooding.
The Tradewater River flooded large areas of fields and woodlands, along with some state roads including Highway 120.
Flooding of the Pond River affected roads near Ashbyburg.
Southeast of Cadiz, a bridge was closed over the Little River. The bridge was located just off Highway 272 on Glenwood Mill Road.
Numerous roads were flooded across the county.
Numerous roads were flooded across the county.
Several road closures were in place around the county because of flooding.
A mudslide resulting from heavy rainfall and flooding compromised a building at a church campus in Hickman. One unoccupied building was damaged. The mayor declared a State of Emergency.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Kentucky in 2019Every state in 2019This day in weather historyWarnings in Kentucky, February 2019
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 802927, 802928, 802925, 802929, 802938, 802939, 802931, 802934, 802936, 802933, 802940.