A persistent onshore flow caused periods of heavy rain, strong to high winds, beach erosion, and minor to moderate tidal flooding to occur along the Atlantic coast of New Jersey and into Delaware Bay from the 1st through the 4th. Strong winds and minor tidal flooding started with the daytime high tide cycle on the 1st.
Every event with a place to put it; 17 filed by county or forecast zone are drawn at its center, in a lighter ring. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS PHI wrote it up.
A persistent onshore flow caused periods of heavy rain, strong to high winds, beach erosion, and minor to moderate tidal flooding to occur along the Atlantic coast of New Jersey and into Delaware Bay from the 1st through the 4th. Strong winds and minor tidal flooding started with the daytime high tide cycle on the 1st. The winds and minor to moderate tidal flooding both peaked on the 2nd. Slow improvement in conditions occurred through Sunday the 4th, with only some residual minor tidal flooding occurring on the 5th along the southern New Jersey coast.
In excess of 32 million dollars in storm damage occurred along the New Jersey coast, especially along the coasts of Cape May, Ocean, and Monmouth Counties due to the prolonged wind and tidal flooding which caused extensive damage to New Jersey's coastal barrier dune system. As a result, Governor Chris Christie announced that New Jersey would request a Major Disaster Declaration under the federal Stafford Act for these three shore counties. To restore traffic flow and prevent further flooding in these counties, sand removal was performed along storm drains and roadways. In North Wildwood (Cape May County), severe beach erosion occurred leaving 5 foot or higher cliffs carved out of the dunes along sections of the beach, making those areas unsafe and inaccessible. The beaches at Mantoloking and Brick (Ocean County) were closed following the storm due to dangerous drop-offs between a protective steel flood wall and the beach. The severe beach erosion at these locations resulted in drop-offs ranging between 5 to 10 feet. Meanwhile, in the Toms River community of Ortley Beach (Ocean County) on the northern barrier island, a breach reportedly occurred in the temporary dune line the township had constructed. In Middle Township (Cape May County), a vacant and structurally unsound home was dislodged from its pilings in the Grassy Sound Channel behind North Wildwood on the 2nd, and it floated into the Intracoastal Waterway before it broke apart and settled into the marsh. No utilities were connected to the home, and no injuries were reported.
Storm damage and power outages were also reported into other parts of southern and central New Jersey. In the Pleasant Valley Crossroads area north of Colts Neck (Monmouth County), a 46 year-old woman was killed when a tree fell onto her car as she drove south on Route 34 between Clover Hill Road and Highfield Lane on the 3rd. The tree was reported to be rotted and likely fell due to the combination of saturated ground and strong winds. The Seaside Park Fire Department (Ocean County) rescued a 40 year-old man who was sailing his 22-foot Angler boat in Barnegat Bay. The boat's engine had failed, and it was adrift off 14th Avenue. Meanwhile, in Keyport Harbor off the Cliffwood Beach section of Aberdeen Township (Monmouth County), three sailboats came loose from their moorings on the afternoon of the 3rd. Tugboats were dispatched to the area to round up the vessels. In Pennsville (Salem County), a large falling tree limb was the cause of a major power outage that left more than 3,300 Atlantic City Electric customers in the dark for a couple of hours the evening of the 2nd. Other scattered power outages also occurred across portions of southern to central New Jersey during the height of the storm on the 2nd and 3rd.
Minor tidal flooding began with the day and night high tide cycles on the 1st along the Atlantic coast of New Jersey and into Delaware Bay. The highest tides then occurred with the daytime high tide cycle on the 2nd, with minor tidal flooding being recorded from Atlantic County northward and moderate tidal flooding occurring along the Cape May County coast and also likely along the Cumberland County coast adjacent to Delaware Bay. Highest tides included 7.41 feet above mean lower low water at 1206 p.m. EDT on the 2nd at Sandy Hook (Monmouth County), and minor tidal flooding starts at 6.7 feet above mean lower low water. The highest level of minor tidal flooding recorded at Atlantic City (Atlantic County) was 6.75 feet above mean lower low water at 1148 a.m. EDT on the 2nd, and minor tidal flooding starts at 6.0 feet above mean lower low water. Meanwhile, moderate tidal flooding and the highest tides at Cape May (Cape May County) were recorded at 8.07 feet above mean lower low water at 1242 p.m. EDT on the 2nd, and moderate tidal flooding starts at 7.7 feet above mean lower low water. Minor tidal flooding then occurred along most of the Atlantic coast of New Jersey and into Delaware Bay with successive day and night high tide cycles through the 3rd and 4th. In addition, minor tidal flooding was also recorded along the lower part of the tidal Delaware River at Reedy Island, DE with the late afternoon high tide cycles on the 3rd and the 4th, with some minimal effects along portions of the Salem County coast. The last of the residual minor tidal flooding to occur with this event along the southern New Jersey coast affected Cape May County with the afternoon high tide on the 5th.
The peak in tidal flooding, especially from the afternoon of the 2nd through the early morning of the 3rd, also coincided with the strongest winds to affect New Jersey as most of the peak wind gusts occurred during this timeframe. Measured wind gusts to affect New Jersey included 62 mph in Cape May (Cape May County), 56 mph in Seaside Heights (Ocean County), 55 mph in Tuckerton (Ocean County), 53 mph in Ocean City (Cape May County) and in Harvey Cedars (Ocean County), 52 mph in Ship Bottom (Ocean County), 51 mph at Kite Island in Barnegat Bay (Ocean County), 48 mph at Cape May NOS buoy, 47 mph in Monmouth Beach (Monmouth County), 46 mph in Brick Township (Ocean County), 45 mph at the Atlantic City International Airport (Atlantic County), 44 mph at the Cape May County Airport (Cape May County), 43 mph in Sandy Hook (Monmouth County), and 41 mph at the Millville Municipal Airport (Cumberland County).
The tidal flooding and strong winds were caused by a strengthening pressure gradient (difference) between a strong high pressure system building across southeastern Canada and a lingering frontal boundary offshore of the Northeast and Mid Atlantic seaboard. In addition, some moisture, associated with Hurricane Joaquin passing offshore well to the south, interacted with the stalled frontal boundary, which enhanced rainfall amounts somewhat across the area. Storm total rainfall amounts averaged from 1.5 to 3.5 inches in New Jersey, with a few locally higher amounts along the coast. The pressure gradient then weakened during the day of the 4th as the high pressure across southeast Canada weakened.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Philadelphia/Mount Holly wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Oct 1, 6:08 PM EST, 1 hour 52 minutes earlier.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
708 PM EDT THU OCT 1 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A STALLED FRONT WILL REMAIN OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST INTO THIS
WEEKEND WHILE LARGE AND STRENGTHENING HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS
SOUTHEAST CANADA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MEANWHILE, THE FORECAST
TRACK OF HURRICANE JOAQUIN WAS TRENDING EASTWARD AWAY FROM OUR
AREA BUT IT STILL NEEDS TO BE MONITORED FOR POTENTIAL IMPACT HERE
EARLY NEXT WEEK. ONCE JOAQUIN PASSES BY EARLY NEXT WEEK, WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE FOLLOWS INTO OUR REGION FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
630 PM ESTF UPDATE: TEMPS/DEWS WERE EXCELLENT. WIND GUSTS TRIMMED
FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS BY 2-4 KT BUT...WIND FIELDS ARE INCREASING
WESTWARD IN THE ATLANTIC AND AN UPWARD RESPONSE IN GUSTINESS
SHOULD EVENTUALLY BE FELT DURING THE NIGHT INLAND. POPS WERE
RAISED CONSIDERABLY. OVERRUNNING. THINK MORE RAIN OCCURRED THIS
AFTERNOON THAN MIGHT HAVE BEEN EXPECTED. THIS TREND CONTINUES
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...SOAKING SHOWERS. WE PROBABLY WILL INCREASE
POPS EVEN MORE OVER NW NJ AND THE POCONOS AT 930 PM. THE MID LEVEL
RAIN IS OVERWHELMING THE DRIER LOWER LAYER THERE.
EXPECTED RAIN AMOUNTS RANGE FROM SPOTTY 1 TO 2 INCHES ACROSS
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN DELMARVA AND FAR SOUTHERN NJ, TO A FEW
HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH OVER THE POCONOS. PWAT HOLDS STRONG NEAR 2
INCHES JUST SE OF I-95.
AS THE FRONT MOVES CLOSER, THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL INCREASE.
THUS, EXPECT WINDS TO BUCK THE TYPICAL NOCTURNAL TRENDS, AND
ACTUALLY INCREASE OVERNIGHT, ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST. THEREFORE,
CONTINUE THE WIND ADVISORY FOR COASTAL AND NEAR COASTAL
LOCATIONS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE CLOSER TO THE REGION, BUT AS IT DOES SO,
LOOKS TO LOOSE SOME DEFINITION. HOWEVER, THE HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY
WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST THE DAY TOMORROW. MUCH LIKE
WITH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, LOCATIONS ALONG AND NEAR THE OCEANFRONT
WILL BE FAVORED FOR HEAVY RAIN AND THE STRONGEST WINDS.
STRONGEST WIND FIELDS OVERHEAD SHOULD BE LATE FRIDAY AND GUSTINESS
SHOULD BE 5 TO 10 KTS HIGHER THAN WHAT OCCURRED TODAY.
SAW MANY GUSTS AROUND 30 KT COAST WITH A FEW AROUND 33-34 KT.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN, INLAND FLOODING, GUSTY WINDS, AND
COASTAL FLOODING ALL EXIST IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD, ASSOCIATED
WITH A LARGE UPPER CLOSED LOW OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES,
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS SOUTHEAST CANADA.
JOAQUIN: PLEASE SEE ADVISORIES FROM NHC.
WHILE UNCERTAINTY STILL EXISTS WITH JOAQUIN AND ITS IMPACT TO OUR
AREA, THIS IS A GOOD TIME TO REVIEW YOUR PREPAREDNESS PLAN.
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND AT THE WEBSITE...READY.GOV.
FOR MORE INFORMATION REGARDING HEAVY RAINFALL, FLOOD POTENTIAL,
AND COASTAL FLOODING, PLEASE REFERENCE THE HYDROLOGY AND
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING SECTIONS BELOW.
INTO FRIDAY NIGHT, THE SYNOPTIC SET-UP WILL FEATURE A LARGE UPPER-
LEVEL CLOSED LOW MEANDERING OVER THE GULF COAST STATES, WITH
STRENGTHENING HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER SOUTHEAST CANADA. BETWEEN
THESE TWO SYSTEMS, A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL EXIST OVER OUR
REGION, WITH STRONG, GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS EXPECTED. IN ADDITION, A
STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS PROGGED TO REMAIN OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST, WITH A DEEP, MOIST FLOW INTO OUR REGION. FORECAST SOUNDING
DATA SHOWS SIGNS FOR A FAVORABLE HEAVY RAIN SET-UP INTO OUR REGION,
WITH A DEEP, WARM CLOUD LAYER AND PWATS ABOVE 1.5 INCHES. THERE
CONTINUES TO BE RELATIVELY GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT WITH RESPECT TO THE
PROGRESSION OF SOME PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN MOVING THROUGH
OUR AREA INTO FRIDAY EVENING/NIGHT FROM SOUTHEASTERN PARTS OF THE
FORECAST AREA TOWARD THE DELAWARE VALLEY AND THEN WESTWARD BEYOND
OUR CWA INTO CENTRAL PA INTO SATURDAY MORNING. AFTER COLLABORATION
WITH WPC AND NEIGHBORING OFFICES, OVERALL QPF AMOUNTS FOR THE FRIDAY
NIGHT TO SATURDAY PERIOD HAVE COME DOWN, AND IT DOES NOT APPEAR THAT
ANY FLOOD RELATED HEADLINE PRODUCTS ARE NEEDED AT THIS TIME.
WITH RESPECT TO WINDS, THE TIGHTEST PRESSURE GRADIENT AND BEST
MIXING POTENTIAL AFTER CHECKING MODEL AND SOUNDING DATA LOOKS TO BE
FROM FRIDAY EVENING/NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY, AND WE HAVE CONTINUED
THE COASTAL STRIP OF NEW JERSEY AND DELAWARE IN A HIGH WIND WATCH
WHERE NORTHEAST WINDS IN THE 25 TO 35 MPH RANGE ARE EXPECTED WITH
SOME SCATTERED GUSTS ABOVE 50 MPH. FARTHER INLAND, SOME GUSTS TO
AROUND 40 MPH ARE POSSIBLE.
INTO THE WEEKEND THEN, OUR WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TO BE INFLUENCED BY
THE UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES, THE PRONOUNCED NORTHEAST
FLOW AROUND THE STRONG CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE, AND THE TRACK AND
INTENSITY OF HURRICANE JOAQUIN. OPERATIONAL AND ENSEMBLE MODEL
SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO VARY ON THE TRACK OF JOAQUIN, BUT IF ANYTHING,
THERE HAS BEEN AN EASTWARD SHIFT IN SOME SOLUTIONS, MOST NOTABLY THE
GFS AND SOME ENSEMBLE MEMBERS. MEANWHILE, THE OPERATIONAL ECMWF
STILL SUPPORTS AN EASTWARD TRACK OUT TO SEA, BUT THERE ARE STILL
SOME VARIANCES WITHIN ITS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS. OTHER SOLUTIONS,
INCLUDING THE 12Z NAM, STILL SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR A CAROLINA
LANDFALL. OVERALL, THERE CONTINUES TO BE UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE
TRACK OF JOAQUIN AND SOME VARIANCE WITH REGARDS TO MODEL SOLUTIONS,
AND THIS SYSTEM BEARS WATCHING. REGARDLESS OF THE EXACT TRACK OF
JOAQUIN, THERE WILL BE SIGNIFICANT COASTAL IMPACTS, INCLUDING
MODERATE TO PERHAPS MAJOR COASTAL FLOODING FROM MULTIPLE HIGH TIDE
CYCLES, GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS, AND BEACH EROSION. WITH REGARDS TO
PRECIP OVER THE WEEKEND, WE SHOULD BE IN A BIT OF A LULL DURING THE
BETTER PART OF SATURDAY AS THE UPPER FLOW BECOMES LESS MERIDIONAL
AND WE LOSE THE DIRECT GULF MX CONNECTION. THEREAFTER, THE POTENTIAL
FOR PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND INTENSITY DO INCREASE FOR THE LATTER
PART OF THE WEEKEND, AS WE TAKE A CAUTIOUS APPROACH TO JOAQUIN'S
TRACK.
BEYOND THE WEEKEND INTO MONDAY/TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK, ADDITIONAL
RAIN/SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF ANY REMNANT
TROPICAL MOISTURE AND/OR THE UPPER LEVEL LOW FROM THE SOUTHEAST
STATES. WE MOSTLY BLENDED WPC TEMPS/POPS/WINDS GUIDANCE WITH
CONTINUITY DURING THIS PERIOD. THEREAFTER, BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF
SHOW SOME WEAK HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER WEATHER BUILDING TOWARD OUR
REGION FOR MID-WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY, AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
WIDESPREAD MVFR OR EVEN IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD FOR THE DELAWARE VALLEY (KPHL, KILG, KPNE, KTTN) AND COASTAL
SITES (KMIV, KACY). CEILINGS WILL LIKELY STAY 025 OR LOWER, AND
VISIBILITIES AS LOW AS 1SM WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH HEAVIER RAIN
(THOUGH EXACT TIMING OF THE HEAVIER RAIN IS UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME.
AT KRDG AND KABE, THEY WILL LIKELY LOWER TO MVFR AFTER SUNSET, AND
KEEP LOWER CEILINGS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD, THOUGH VISIBILITY
REDUCTIONS WILL BE INTERMITTENT.
WINDS WILL STAY NORTHEASTERLY THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. WIND SPEEDS
ARE EXPECTED TO BUCK THE TYPICAL NOCTURNAL TRENDS AND ACTUALLY STAY
THE SAME IF NOT INCREASE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, ESPECIALLY FOR
KACY AND KMIV.
OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS ARE PROBABLE
DURING THIS PERIOD WITH A CONTINUED NORTHEAST FLOW. PERIODS OF RAIN
WILL CONTINUE, WITH MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE AT TIMES.
NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY AS WELL DURING THIS TIMEFRAME,
REACHING AT LEAST 25-35 KNOTS AT TIMES.
TUESDAY...OVERALL, IMPROVEMENT BACK TO VFR CONDITIONS IS
ANTICIPATED, WITH GENERALLY LIGHTER WINDS UNDER 20 KNOTS.
PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST STATEMENTS FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER FOR UPDATES ON HURRICANE JOAQUIN.
&&
.MARINE...
630PM FORECAST UPDATED WITH LOWERED WINDS SUN NIGHT-MON NIGHT AS
JOAQUIN FORECAST TRENDS EAST.
GALE CONDITIONS WITH SEAS OF 10 TO 15 FT ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
TONIGHT AND TOMORROW ON THE OCEAN WATERS WITH A FEW GUSTS NEAR
50KT POSSIBLE LATER IN THE DAY TOMORROW, BUT WILL HOLD OFF ON A
STORM WARNING AT THIS TIME DUE TO UNCERTAINTY. ALONG THE BAY, GALE
GUSTS ARE LIKELY TONIGHT AND TOMORROW.
OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...WITH A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT AND
STRONG NORTHEAST FLOW OVER OUR WATERS, GALE CONDITIONS AT A MINIMUM
ARE EXPECTED FOR OUR WATERS. HOWEVER, WE DO CONTINUE WITH A STORM
WATCH THROUGH THIS PERIOD FOR OUR COASTAL WATERS AS SOME GUSTS AT OR
ABOVE 48 KNOTS STILL LOOK POSSIBLE. SEAS FOR OUR COASTAL WATERS WILL
BE BUILDING, REACHING INTO THE 15 TO 20 FOOT RANGE.
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...MARINE HEADLINES AND CONDITIONS DURING THIS
PERIOD WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE TRACK OF HURRICANE JOAQUIN.
AT A MINIMUM, IT APPEARS THAT THERE WILL BE A PERIOD OF GALE
CONDITIONS FOR OUR WATERS, WITH SEAS ALSO REMAINING ELEVATED.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
UPDATED HPC QPF FOR THE NEXT 3 DAYS SUGGESTS ANOTHER ONE QUARTER TO
3 INCHES IS POSSIBLE. THIS HAS COME DOWN A BIT FROM THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST. SPOT 4-5 INCHERS MAY STILL OCCUR DELMARVA AND S NJ BY LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT. THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL THREAT IS BEING PAINTED ACROSS
DELMARVA AND SOUTHERN NJ. THERE MAY BE ADDITIONAL RAIN SUNDAY INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THE GOOD...DRY ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS WILL HELP WITH THIS EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL. MANY CREEKS, STREAMS AND MAINSTEM RIVERS ARE STILL LOWER
THAN NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
THE BAD...IF THE FORECASTED RAINS COME TO FRUITION THE NEXT 72
HOURS, BRIEF POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING IS PRETTY MUCH GUARANTEED.
THE FLASH FLOODING THREAT MAY ALSO INCREASE AS WILL THE THREAT OF
MINOR SMALL STREAM FLOODING.
TODAY'S MARFC FORECAST NOW INCLUDES 72 HOURS WORTH OF RAINFALL.
CONTINUE TO MONITOR AHPS AS FUTURE FORECASTS WILL INCORPORATE
UPDATED QPF AND GO FURTHER OUT IN TIME.
MAINSTEM RIVERS....WITH THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL PREDICTED TO BE FROM
CENTRAL NJ SOUTHWARD, MORE FOCUSED ON THE COASTAL PLAIN, THE
DELAWARE RIVER AND PASSAIC RIVER LOOK SAFE WITH CURRENT PREDICTED
RAINFALL AMOUNTS. I WOULD KEEP AN EYE ON THE RARITAN AND LOWER END
OF THE SCHUYLKILL.
IN TERMS OF FLOODING POTENTIAL, REPEAT FLOODING POTENTIAL, DO NOT
JUST FOCUS ON HURRICANE JOAQUIN. TROPICAL AIR AND HEAVY RAINS ARE
FORECAST TO ARRIVE HERE WHEN JOAQUIN IS VERY FAR AWAY. EVEN IF
JOAQUIN BECOMES A NON-FACTOR FOR US, THE MID-LEVEL TROF DEVELOPING
OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. WILL BECOME THE MAIN DRIVER FOR OUR
FLOODING RAINS.
IN GENERAL, ANOTHER THREE INCHES OF RAINFALL ON GAUGED
STREAMS/RIVERS MAY CAUSE SOME MINOR FLOODING.
RIVER FLOODING COULD START AS SOON SATURDAY.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
**THIS IS THE PRIMARY STORM DANGER THROUGH SUNDAY**
MULTIPLE CYCLES OF MODERATE TO MAJOR FLOODING EXPECTED. THE
PRODUCT WILL UPDATE WITH MORE DETAILS AROUND 830 PM AND BE
EXTENDED. IMPASSABLE ROADS SURROUNDING THE HIGH TIDE CYCLES ALONG
THE SNJ AND DE ATLANTIC AND LOWER DE BAY COASTS.
MAJOR BEACH EROSION PROBLEMS APPEAR POSSIBLE SNJ SOUTHWARD.
ALL AREAS HAVE A COASTAL FLOOD WATCH UP FOR FRIDAY NIGHT THRU
SUNDAY. UNTIL THEN...COASTAL FLOOD WARNINGS HAVE BEEN ISSUED (FOR
THE STRONG ONSHORE SYNOPTIC GRADIENT WIND) FOR THE ATLANTIC
COASTAL AREAS...WITH ADVISORIES BEING ISSUED FOR THE UPPER BAY AND
DELAWARE RIVER.
MORE LATER.
&&
.CLIMATE...
TOP 5 WARMEST SEPTEMBER JUST COMPLETED. THE DATA BELOW... THE
MONTHLY CLM'S WILL RUN ON FRIDAY.
PHL #2 POR 1874
1881 75.4
2015 74.5 5.4 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
1931 74.1
1930 74.1
ABE #3 POR 1922
1961 70.8
1980 70.3
2015 69.7 5.8 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
1931 69.4
ILG #3 POR 1917
1895 72.9
1961 72.5
2015 72.4 4.6 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
1930 72.3
ACY #5 POR 1874
1961 73.3
1881 72.8
1931 72.3
1930 72.3
1921 71.7
2015 71.6 4.4 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
1933 71.5
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...COASTAL FLOOD WATCH FROM FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY
AFTERNOON FOR PAZ070-071.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR PAZ070-071.
NJ...COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR NJZ012>014-
020>027.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 6 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR NJZ013-014-020-
022>027.
COASTAL FLOOD WATCH FROM FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY
AFTERNOON FOR NJZ012>014-016>027.
HIGH WIND WATCH FROM FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON
FOR NJZ014-024>026.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR NJZ016>019.
DE...COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR DEZ002>004.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 6 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR DEZ003-004.
COASTAL FLOOD WATCH FROM FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY
AFTERNOON FOR DEZ001>004.
HIGH WIND WATCH FROM FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON
FOR DEZ004.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR DEZ001.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...STORM WATCH FROM FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON FOR
ANZ450>455.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ450>455.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ430-431.
&&
SYNOPSIS...GIGI/KLINE
NEAR TERM...DRAG/JOHNSON
SHORT TERM...JOHNSON
LONG TERM...KLINE
AVIATION...DRAG/JOHNSON/KLINE
MARINE...DRAG/JOHNSON/KLINE
HYDROLOGY...
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
CLIMATE...HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ 849 PM EDT THU OCT 1 2015 MDZ008-012-015-019-020-NJZ001-007>010-015-PAZ054-055-060>062-101>106- 030100- CECIL-KENT MD-QUEEN ANNES-TALBOT-CAROLINE-SUSSEX-WARREN-MORRIS- HUNTERDON-SOMERSET-MERCER-CARBON-MONROE-BERKS-LEHIGH-NORTHAMPTON- WESTERN CHESTER-EASTERN CHESTER-WESTERN MONTGOMERY- EASTERN MONTGOMERY-UPPER BUCKS-LOWER BUCKS- 849 PM EDT THU OCT 1 2015 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST MARYLAND...CENTRAL NEW JERSEY...NORTHERN NEW JERSEY...NORTHWEST NEW JERSEY...EAST CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA...NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA AND SOUTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA. .DAY ONE...TONIGHT. THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. HURRICANE JOAQUIN'S UNCERTAIN FORECAST TRACK IS CURRENTLY OUTLOOKED TO MOVE IT FURTHER EAST THAN FORECASTS FROM WEDNESDAY AND EARLY THURSDAY. PLEASE CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS FOR THIS SYSTEM FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. DEZ001-NJZ016>019-PAZ070-071-030100- NEW CASTLE-SALEM-GLOUCESTER-CAMDEN-NORTHWESTERN BURLINGTON-DELAWARE- PHILADELPHIA- 849 PM EDT THU OCT 1 2015 ...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EDT FRIDAY... ...COASTAL FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON... THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHERN DELAWARE...SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY AND SOUTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA. .DAY ONE...TONIGHT. PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS. COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY. POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING RAIN MAY DEVELOP TOWARD DAWN. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS. COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY. COASTAL FLOOD WATCH. PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN ARE LIKELY FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT WITH POOR DRAINAGE STREET FLOODING. HURRICANE JOAQUIN'S UNCERTAIN FORECAST TRACK IS CURRENTLY OUTLOOKED TO MOVE IT FURTHER EAST THAN FORECASTS FROM WEDNESDAY AND EARLY THURSDAY. PLEASE CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS FOR THIS SYSTEM FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. DEZ002-NJZ012-021-030100- KENT-MIDDLESEX-CUMBERLAND- 849 PM EDT THU OCT 1 2015 ...COASTAL FLOOD WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EDT SATURDAY... ...COASTAL FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON... THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL DELAWARE...NORTHERN NEW JERSEY AND SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY. .DAY ONE...TONIGHT. PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS. COASTAL FLOOD WARNING. HEAVY RAINS MAY DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT AND CAUSE POCKETS OF POOR DRAINAGE STREET FLOODING. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS. COASTAL FLOOD WARNING. COASTAL FLOOD WATCH. PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT WILL PROBABLY CAUSE SOME POOR DRAINAGE STREET FLOODING. HURRICANE JOAQUIN'S UNCERTAIN FORECAST TRACK IS CURRENTLY OUTLOOKED TO MOVE IT FURTHER EAST THAN FORECASTS FROM WEDNESDAY AND EARLY THURSDAY. PLEASE CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS FOR THIS SYSTEM FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. DEZ003-NJZ013-020-022-023-027-030100- INLAND SUSSEX-WESTERN MONMOUTH-OCEAN-ATLANTIC-CAPE MAY- SOUTHEASTERN BURLINGTON- 849 PM EDT THU OCT 1 2015 ...COASTAL FLOOD WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EDT SATURDAY... ...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 2 AM TO 6 PM EDT FRIDAY... ...COASTAL FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON... THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHERN DELAWARE...CENTRAL NEW JERSEY AND SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY. .DAY ONE...TONIGHT. PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS. COASTAL FLOOD WARNING. WIND ADVISORY. HEAVY RAIN LATER TONIGHT MAY CAUSE POCKETS OF POOR DRAINAGE STREET FLOODING. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS. COASTAL FLOOD WARNING. WIND ADVISORY. COASTAL FLOOD WATCH. PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT MAY CAUSE POCKETS OF POOR DRAINAGE STREET FLOODING. HURRICANE JOAQUIN'S UNCERTAIN FORECAST TRACK IS CURRENTLY OUTLOOKED TO MOVE IT FURTHER EAST THAN FORECASTS FROM WEDNESDAY AND EARLY THURSDAY. PLEASE CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS FOR THIS SYSTEM FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. DEZ004-NJZ014-024>026-030100- DELAWARE BEACHES-EASTERN MONMOUTH-ATLANTIC COASTAL CAPE MAY- COASTAL ATLANTIC-COASTAL OCEAN- 849 PM EDT THU OCT 1 2015 ...COASTAL FLOOD WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EDT SATURDAY... ...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 2 AM TO 6 PM EDT FRIDAY... ...HIGH WIND WATCH IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON... ...COASTAL FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON... THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHERN DELAWARE...CENTRAL NEW JERSEY AND SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY. .DAY ONE...TONIGHT. PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS. COASTAL FLOOD WARNING. WIND ADVISORY. PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN IN SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY AND DELAWARE WILL PROBABLY CAUSE POCKETS OF POOR DRAINAGE STREET FLOODING. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS. COASTAL FLOOD WARNING. WIND ADVISORY. HIGH WIND WATCH. COASTAL FLOOD WATCH. AREAS OF HEAVY RAIN, ESPECIALLY IN SOUTHERN JERSEY AND DELAWARE WILL PROBABLY RESULT IN POCKETS OF POOR DRAINAGE STREET FLOODING. HURRICANE JOAQUIN'S UNCERTAIN FORECAST TRACK IS CURRENTLY OUTLOOKED TO MOVE IT FURTHER EAST THAN FORECASTS FROM WEDNESDAY AND EARLY THURSDAY. PLEASE CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS FOR THIS SYSTEM FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. ANZ450>455-030100- COASTAL WATERS FROM SANDY HOOK TO MANASQUAN INLET NJ OUT 20 NM- COASTAL WATERS FROM MANASQUAN INLET TO LITTLE EGG INLET NJ OUT 20 NM- COASTAL WATERS FROM LITTLE EGG INLET TO GREAT EGG INLET NJ OUT 20 NM- COASTAL WATERS FROM GREAT EGG INLET TO CAPE MAY NJ OUT 20 NM- COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE MAY NJ TO CAPE HENLOPEN DE OUT 20 NM- COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE HENLOPEN TO FENWICK ISLAND DE OUT 20 NM- 849 PM EDT THU OCT 1 2015 ...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EDT FRIDAY... ...STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON... THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS. .DAY ONE...TONIGHT. PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS. GALE WARNING. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS. GALE WARNING. STORM WATCH. HURRICANE JOAQUIN'S UNCERTAIN FORECAST TRACK IS CURRENTLY OUTLOOKED TO MOVE IT FURTHER EAST THAN FORECASTS FROM WEDNESDAY AND EARLY THURSDAY. PLEASE CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS FOR THIS SYSTEM FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. ANZ430-431-030100- DELAWARE BAY WATERS NORTH OF EAST POINT NJ TO SLAUGHTER BEACH DE- DELAWARE BAY WATERS SOUTH OF EAST POINT NJ TO SLAUGHTER BEACH DE- 849 PM EDT THU OCT 1 2015 ...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EDT SATURDAY... THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR DELAWARE BAY WATERS. .DAY ONE...TONIGHT. PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS. GALE WARNING. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS. GALE WARNING. HURRICANE JOAQUIN'S UNCERTAIN FORECAST TRACK IS CURRENTLY OUTLOOKED TO MOVE IT FURTHER EAST THAN FORECASTS FROM WEDNESDAY AND EARLY THURSDAY. PLEASE CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS FOR THIS SYSTEM FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
13 strong wind, 3 coastal flood, 1 high wind. Local standard time, as filed.
As the offices recorded each death: direct deaths were caused by the weather itself, indirect ones by something it set in motion.
| Event | Date | Age | Sex | Where | Kind |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Strong Wind, Western Monmouth | 2015-10-03 | 46 | Female | Under Tree | Direct |
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in New Jersey in 2015Every state in 2015This day in weather historyWarnings in New Jersey, October 2015
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 604782, 604789, 604964, 604965, 604966, 604760, 604764, 604802, 604949, 604953, 604954, 604955, 604956, 604957, 604794, 604800, 604759.