Texas, 2015

Drought in Texas, October 1 to 31, 2015

October 1 to 31, 2015 · NWS SHV · 21 events in 21 counties and zones

Drought conditions continued to worsen across Northeast Texas during the first half of October with D2 Severe Drought conditions noted across virtually all of Northeast Texas. D3 Extreme Drought conditions encompassed Red River, Bowie, Franklin, Titus, Morris, Camp, Cass, Upshur, Marion, Gregg, Harrison, Panola, Rusk, Shelby Nacogdoches, Cherokee and Angelina Counties.

Where it happened

Every event with a place to put it; 21 filed by county or forecast zone are drawn at its center, in a lighter ring. Tap one for its entry below.

  • Tornadoes
  • Tropical storms and surge
  • Floods
  • Wind
  • Hail
  • Winter weather
  • Heat and drought
  • Cold
  • Fire, smoke and dust
  • Marine and coastal
  • Other

Open the live radar over this ground

The toll

Deaths
0
Injuries
0
Property damage
None recorded
Crop damage
None recorded
Events
21

Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.

What happened

The episode as NWS SHV wrote it up.

Drought conditions continued to worsen across Northeast Texas during the first half of October with D2 Severe Drought conditions noted across virtually all of Northeast Texas. D3 Extreme Drought conditions encompassed Red River, Bowie, Franklin, Titus, Morris, Camp, Cass, Upshur, Marion, Gregg, Harrison, Panola, Rusk, Shelby Nacogdoches, Cherokee and Angelina Counties. By October 20th, drought conditions continued to deteriorate such that Bowie, Cass, Marion and Harrison Counties were classified at D4 Exceptional Drought conditions. Towards the last week in October, an upper level storm system moved into the Southern Plains and Lower Mississippi Valley and produced some much needed rainfall to the region. The rainfall was significant enough that by the end of October, drought conditions were downgraded below D2 Severe Drought status across all of Northeast Texas.

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Shreveport, LA wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Sep 30, 11:59 PM CST, 1 minute earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Sep 30, 11:59 PM CST, 1 minute before
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1259 AM CDT THU OCT 1 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT AND
THURSDAY. GUIDANCE INDICATES LOW LEVEL MOISTURE UNDERNEATH AN
INVERSION LATE NIGHT THAT MAY PRODUCE MVFR CONDITIONS AT KLFK AND
KGGG NEAR SUNRISE...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS TIME...SO
DECIDED NOT TO INCLUDE IT IN THIS TAF FORECAST. WINDS WILL REMAIN
OUT OF THE NORTH/NORTHEAST THROUGHOUT THIS TAF PERIOD
TRANSITIONING FROM LIGHT TO VARIABLE OVERNIGHT TO AS HIGH AS 10 TO
15 KTS THE REMINDER OF THE DAY ON THURSDAY. /20/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 954 PM CDT WED SEP 30 2015/

DISCUSSION...
MOSTLY SKC SKIES WITH DEEP NORTHERLY FLOW BRINGING IN DRIER AIR AT
MOST LVLS. HOWEVER...SOME LOW CLOUDS AT NEAR THE 925 MB LVL OVER
MS RIVER VALLEY OF AR/TN MAY TRY TO BACKDOOR INTO SW AR AFTER
MIDNIGHT AND POSSIBLY EXTREME NORTHCENTRAL LA BEFORE DAYBREAK.
THUS...ADDED PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES FOR THOSE REGIONS AND RAISED
OVERNIGHT LOWS AT LEAST A COUPLE OF DEGREES FOR SAME AREAS DUE TO
EFFECT OF LATE NIGHT CLOUDS. NO OTHER CHANGES NEEDED./VII/.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 355 PM CDT WED SEP 30 2015/

DISCUSSION...
A NICE BREEZE IS BLOWING OUT OF THE NORTHEAST TODAY WITH LOWER 60
DEW POINTS MIXING IN AND RESULTANT HUMIDITIES IN THE 30 PERCENT
RANGE. THERE ARE JUST A COUPLE OF EXCEPTIONS WHERE SKY HAS BEEN A
BIT MORE CLOUDY THIS AFTERNOON. THE VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS THE CU AND STRATOCU OVER MUCH OF THE MID SOUTH WITH THE
OUACHITAS EATING A GOOD DEAL OF MOISTURE ALL DAY ON THE QUICK TRIP
OVER THE MEAGER ELEVATIONS...BUT THIS DECK WAS NEARLY TOUCHING
THE GROUND THIS MORNING OVER ARKANSAS.

THE COLD FRONT IS PERHAPS BETTER REPRESENTED BY GUSTS ALONG I-20
SITES THAN OTHER ELEMENT WITH EVERYBODY WITHIN A MILLIBAR OR SO
OF 1013 TO 14. A LARGE SURFACE HIGH REMAINS NORTH OF THE GREAT
LAKES AT 1032MB...DRIVING A BACKDOOR WEDGE DOWN THE APPALACHIANS.
OUR FIRE DANGER WOULD BE MUCH BETTER OFF WITH SOME GREEN
LEFT...BUT AFTER A RECORD DRY MONTH WE HAVE ABUNDANT TENDER FUEL.
FIRE BURN BANS ARE STILL AFFECTING MANY OF OUR COUNTIES AND
PARISHES AT THIS TIME. EVEN A CIGARETTE BUTT OUT OF A CAR WINDOW WITH
A NICE BREEZE CAN BECOME A REAL ISSUE IN THE SUPER DRY CONDITIONS
OF THIS EXTREME DROUGHT.

OF COURSE D2/3 IMPROVEMENT IS NOT LIKELY WITH PERHAPS FURTHER
DETERIORATION OF CONDITIONS WITH A DRY FORECAST AND DAYS OF
MOISTURE ROBBING DRY AIR HEADED THIS WAY WILL EVEN KEEP THE
MORNING DEW AWAY...BUT WE COULD SEE SOME REDEVELOP SOME MORE LOW
CLOUDS AROUND DAYBREAK BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. THE MODELS LOOK
MOSTLY CLEAR. THE AIR MASS WILL MODIFY AND MODERATE BACK TO
SEASONAL NUMBERS QUICKLY INTO NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER...AT LEAST THE
COOLER TEMPERATURES CAN BE ENJOYED AS WE DIP BELOW SEASONAL
AVERAGES IN THIS PATTERN FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN LOOKS ALREADY TO HAVE SOME GOOD AGREEMENT
ON OCCURRENCE ON A COLD FRONT AND FRESH COOL AIRMASS...BUT TIMING
IS SLOWER ON THE ECMWF. THE GFS HAS A BRIEF CHANCE A WEEK AWAY FOR
THIS TIME NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER...THE EURO HOLDS OFF UNTIL LATE
WEEK...BUT LOOKS QUITE A BIT WETTER FOR OUR AREA WHICH WOULD BE
MUCH BETTER. SO EVERYBODY IS WATCHING FOR AGREEMENT...ESPECIALLY
NHC ON THE HURRICANE JOAQUIN THREAT. /24/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  54  79  53  79 /   0   0   0   0
MLU  53  77  53  77 /   0   0   0   0
DEQ  48  76  49  77 /   0   0  10   0
TXK  53  77  52  77 /   0   0   0   0
ELD  49  77  51  76 /   0   0   0   0
TYR  55  80  53  79 /   0   0   0   0
GGG  53  80  52  80 /   0   0   0   0
LFK  54  81  52  80 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

20
Hazardous weather outlook, Sep 30, 12:24 PM CST, 11 hours 36 minutes before
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
124 PM CDT WED SEP 30 2015

ARZ050-051-059>061-070>073-LAZ001>006-010>014-017>022-OKZ077-
TXZ096-097-108>112-124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167-011830-
SEVIER-HOWARD-LITTLE RIVER-HEMPSTEAD-NEVADA-MILLER-LAFAYETTE-
COLUMBIA-UNION-CADDO-BOSSIER-WEBSTER-CLAIBORNE-LINCOLN-DE SOTO-
RED RIVER-BIENVILLE-JACKSON-OUACHITA-SABINE-NATCHITOCHES-WINN-
GRANT-CALDWELL-LA SALLE-MCCURTAIN-BOWIE-FRANKLIN-TITUS-CAMP-
MORRIS-CASS-WOOD-UPSHUR-MARION-SMITH-GREGG-HARRISON-CHEROKEE-RUSK-
PANOLA-NACOGDOCHES-SHELBY-ANGELINA-SAN AUGUSTINE-
124 PM CDT WED SEP 30 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHERN ARKANSAS...FOR
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL LOUISIANA...FOR ALL OF EASTERN TEXAS AND FOR
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

WE WILL HAVE A LONG WAIT FOR RAIN AGAIN IN OUR AREA WITH AN
INCREASING FIRE DANGER...AS THE WINDS MAY BE GUSTY AT TIMES WITH
LOWERING RELATIVE HUMIDITY. EXTRA PRECAUTIONS SHOULD BE CONSIDERED
IF OUTDOOR BURNING IS EVEN PERMITTED IN YOUR LOCAL AREA. THE
EXTREME DROUGHT WILL GET WORSE UNTIL OUR NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN BY
MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK WELL INTO OCTOBER. NO OTHER HAZARDOUS
WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION OF EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL...AMATEUR RADIO
OPERATORS AND STORM SPOTTERS WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

24

The radar

The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.

Open the radar archive at this moment

Event by event

21 drought. Local standard time, as filed.

Drought, Angelina

When
October 1, 12:00 AM CST to October 31, 11:59 PM CST
Where
Angelina forecast zone
Reported by
Drought Monitor
Coordinates
31.255, -94.612 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)

Drought, Bowie

When
October 1, 12:00 AM CST to October 31, 11:59 PM CST
Where
Bowie forecast zone
Reported by
Drought Monitor
Coordinates
33.446, -94.423 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)

Drought, Camp

When
October 1, 12:00 AM CST to October 31, 11:59 PM CST
Where
Camp forecast zone
Reported by
Drought Monitor
Coordinates
32.973, -94.978 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)

Drought, Cass

When
October 1, 12:00 AM CST to October 31, 11:59 PM CST
Where
Cass forecast zone
Reported by
Drought Monitor
Coordinates
33.078, -94.344 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)

Drought, Cherokee

When
October 1, 12:00 AM CST to October 31, 11:59 PM CST
Where
Cherokee forecast zone
Reported by
Drought Monitor
Coordinates
31.837, -95.165 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)

Drought, Franklin

When
October 1, 12:00 AM CST to October 31, 11:59 PM CST
Where
Franklin forecast zone
Reported by
Drought Monitor
Coordinates
33.176, -95.218 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)

Drought, Gregg

When
October 1, 12:00 AM CST to October 31, 11:59 PM CST
Where
Gregg forecast zone
Reported by
Drought Monitor
Coordinates
32.481, -94.817 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)

Drought, Harrison

When
October 1, 12:00 AM CST to October 31, 11:59 PM CST
Where
Harrison forecast zone
Reported by
Drought Monitor
Coordinates
32.548, -94.371 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)

Drought, Marion

When
October 1, 12:00 AM CST to October 31, 11:59 PM CST
Where
Marion forecast zone
Reported by
Drought Monitor
Coordinates
32.798, -94.357 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)

Drought, Morris

When
October 1, 12:00 AM CST to October 31, 11:59 PM CST
Where
Morris forecast zone
Reported by
Drought Monitor
Coordinates
33.114, -94.733 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)

Drought, Nacogdoches

When
October 1, 12:00 AM CST to October 31, 11:59 PM CST
Where
Nacogdoches forecast zone
Reported by
Drought Monitor
Coordinates
31.616, -94.616 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)

Drought, Panola

When
October 1, 12:00 AM CST to October 31, 11:59 PM CST
Where
Panola forecast zone
Reported by
Drought Monitor
Coordinates
32.162, -94.306 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)

Drought, Red River

When
October 1, 12:00 AM CST to October 31, 11:59 PM CST
Where
Red River forecast zone
Reported by
Drought Monitor
Coordinates
33.621, -95.050 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)

Drought, Rusk

When
October 1, 12:00 AM CST to October 31, 11:59 PM CST
Where
Rusk forecast zone
Reported by
Drought Monitor
Coordinates
32.108, -94.762 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)

Drought, Sabine

When
October 1, 12:00 AM CST to October 31, 11:59 PM CST
Where
Sabine forecast zone
Reported by
Drought Monitor
Coordinates
31.343, -93.852 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)

Drought, San Augustine

When
October 1, 12:00 AM CST to October 31, 11:59 PM CST
Where
San Augustine forecast zone
Reported by
Drought Monitor
Coordinates
31.394, -94.168 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)

Drought, Shelby

When
October 1, 12:00 AM CST to October 31, 11:59 PM CST
Where
Shelby forecast zone
Reported by
Drought Monitor
Coordinates
31.792, -94.145 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)

Drought, Smith

When
October 1, 12:00 AM CST to October 31, 11:59 PM CST
Where
Smith forecast zone
Reported by
Drought Monitor
Coordinates
32.375, -95.269 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)

Drought, Titus

When
October 1, 12:00 AM CST to October 31, 11:59 PM CST
Where
Titus forecast zone
Reported by
Drought Monitor
Coordinates
33.217, -94.966 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)

Drought, Upshur

When
October 1, 12:00 AM CST to October 31, 11:59 PM CST
Where
Upshur forecast zone
Reported by
Drought Monitor
Coordinates
32.736, -94.941 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)

Drought, Wood

When
October 1, 12:00 AM CST to October 31, 11:59 PM CST
Where
Wood forecast zone
Reported by
Drought Monitor
Coordinates
32.786, -95.382 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)

What these are

Drought
A drought reaching severe (D2) or worse on the US Drought Monitor, or with notable impacts.

After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.

The same day elsewhere

More

Every storm in Texas in 2015Every state in 2015This day in weather historyWarnings in Texas, October 2015

Sources

NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 601012, 601013, 601014, 601015, 601016, 601017, 601018, 601019, 601020, 601021, 601022, 601023, 601024, 601025, 601026, 601027, 601028, 601029, 601030, 601031, 601032.