High Wind and High Surf in California, November 16, 2015

Name: High Wind and High Surf in California, November 16, 2015
Start: 2015-11-16T00:00
End: 2015-11-16T19:00
Location: California

November 16, 2015 · NWS SGX · 3 events in 2 counties and zones

Where it happened

Every event with a place to put it; 3 filed by county or forecast zone are drawn at its center, in a lighter ring. Tap one for its entry below.

Tornadoes
Tropical storms and surge
Floods
Wind
Hail
Winter weather
Heat and drought
Cold
Fire, smoke and dust
Marine and coastal
Other

Open the live radar over this ground

The toll

Deaths: 0
Injuries: 0
Property damage: $15,000
Crop damage: None recorded
Events: 3

Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.

What happened

The episode as NWS SGX wrote it up.

An upper-level trough developed along the West Coast, deepening into a strong low over southern California on the 16th, bringing scattered light rain/snow showers. A couple thunderstorms produced one-quarter inch sized hail near Lake Arrowhead (accumulated to around a half-inch depth) and Running Springs in the San Bernardino mountains. Rainfall totals were mostly one-third of an inch or less, with up to one-half of an inch in the mountains, again, highest amounts in San Diego County. The snow level was around 5500 to 6000 feet, with enough moisture to produce around 4 inches of snow in the Big Bear area, with a rain/melted snow total of 1.5 inches. No flooding reported. This system did produce strong and gusty westerly winds with several trees down in San Diego County and power poles down in Orange County, resulting in power outages for several thousand customers. The strong winds brought a large swell and high surf to the Orange and San Diego County coasts as well. The coastal waters experienced low-end gale force winds during this event, with the San Clemente Basin buoy reporting winds gusting from 35 to 41 kt between 1050 pm on the 15th through 950 am on the 16th, and wave heights peaking at 18 feet.

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS San Diego, CA wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Nov 15, 9:32 PM PST, 2 hours 28 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Nov 15, 9:32 PM PST, 2 hours 28 minutes before

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
932 PM PST SUN NOV 15 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING INLAND WILL BRING STRONG AND GUSTY
WESTERLY WINDS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. STRONGEST
WINDS WILL BE OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND LOCALLY INTO THE DESERTS THIS
EVENING INTO MONDAY MORNING...WITH WIND DAMAGE POSSIBLE. LIGHT
SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH MONDAY MORNING...WITH SNOW
LEVELS DOWN TO 5500 FEET THIS EVENING...AND REACHING 4000 FEET MONDAY
MORNING. COOLER MONDAY...BEFORE WINDS TURN BACK OFFSHORE AND BECOME
GUSTY AGAIN BELOW THE PASSES AND CANYONS LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING. FROSTY CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE WIND-
SHELTERED VALLEYS OVERNIGHT MONDAY. WARMER AND DRY LATE TUESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY WITH WEAKER OFFSHORE FLOW AND WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
ALOFT.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

CURRENTLY...A DEEP AND COLD TROUGH IS OVER CENTRAL CALIFORNIA AND
WESTERN NEVADA...ACCORDING TO WATER VAPOR SATELLITE. THE COLD FRONT
THAT BROUGHT A BAND OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
AREA IS NOW TO OUR EAST...ACCORDING TO INFRARED SATELLITE.
HOWEVER...A VORTICITY MAX ROTATING AROUND THE TROUGH FROM THE NORTH
IS BRINGING A SECOND WAVE OF SHOWER ACTIVITY TO PORTIONS OF
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA...MAINLY IN THE SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY MOUNTAINS
WHERE THERE HAVE BEEN NUMEROUS REPORTS OF LIGHTNING WITH ICE PELLET
ACCUMULATIONS BETWEEN 5000 AND 7000 FOOT ELEVATION. SHOWERS ARE
ALSO CONTINUING IN SAN DIEGO COUNTY. PRECIPITATION ACCUMULATIONS HAVE
BEEN MOSTLY LIGHT...WITH ORANGE COUNTY AND THE WESTERN INLAND EMPIRE
SEEING ALMOST NO ACCUMULATIONS AT ALL. HIGHER PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS
HAVE BEEN AROUND 0.20 TO 0.40 INCHES IN SOME OF THE VALLEY AND
COASTAL SLOPE LOCATIONS. SNOW LEVELS HAVE DROPPED DOWN TO ABOUT 5500-
6000 FEET THIS EVENING...AND SOME 6000-7000 FOOT ELEVATION AREAS IN
SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY MOUNTAINS COULD SEE A COUPLE INCHES OF SNOW
ON THE GROUND BEFORE THE NIGHT IS OVER...WITH LOCAL AMOUNTS OF 4
INCHES ABOVE 8000 FOOT ELEVATION. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE
FAIRLY LIGHT.

AS THE VORT MAX EXITS THE AREA TONIGHT...SHOWERS WILL DISSIPATE FOR
THE MOST PART...WITH ANY REMAINING SHOWER ACTIVITY FOCUSED OVER THE
MOUNTAINS LATE TONIGHT/EARLY MONDAY MORNING. SNOW LEVELS DURING THAT
TIME WILL DROP FURTHER DOWN TO 4000 FEET DUE TO ADDITIONAL COLD AIR
BROUGHT IN BY THE VORT MAX.

AS FAR AS WINDS GO...CURRENT OBSERVATIONS INDICATE 40 MPH GUSTS
IN THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS...WITH LOCAL 50 MPH GUSTS...AS WELL AS
NUMEROUS 30 TO 35 MPH GUSTS ALONG THE COAST. STRONG ONSHORE GRADIENTS
ARE IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA...WITH SAN DIEGO TO TONOPAH GRADIENTS AT
11 MB. ALSO...850 MB WINDS OF 40-50 KT SHOULD PROVIDE SUPPORT FOR
WARNING LEVEL WIND DEVELOPMENT LATE TONIGHT. THUS...WINDS IN THE
MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS SHOULD STRENGTHEN INTO LATE TONIGHT AND CONTINUE
STRONG INTO MONDAY MORNING BEFORE DIMINISHING IN THE LATE MORNING
HOURS. HIGH WIND WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE MOUNTAINS AND
DESERTS...EXCEPT FOR THE LOWER COACHELLA VALLEY WHERE A WIND ADVISORY
REMAINS IN EFFECT.

ON MONDAY...ANY REMAINING SHOWERS SHOULD END BY EARLY
AFTERNOON...AS THE TROUGH MOVES EAST INTO ARIZONA/UTAH.
STRENGTHENING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT BASIN WILL CREATE
STRENGTHENING OFFSHORE FLOW LATER MONDAY...WITH OFFSHORE PRESSURE
GRADIENTS REACHING 10-12 MB FROM SAN DIEGO TO TONOPAH EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING. UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT LOOKS GOOD AS WELL...WITH 850 NORTHERLY
WINDS OF 40-55 KT SHOWN BY THE LOCAL WRF. THUS...A PERIOD OF
MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG SANTA ANA WINDS LOOKS LIKE A GOOD BET FOR
LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. WRF CROSS-SECTIONS SHOW GOOD
POTENTIAL FOR MOUNTAIN WAVE ACTIVITY AS WELL. WIND GUSTS THROUGH THE
PASSES/CANYONS AND INTO THE COASTAL FOOTHILLS COULD REACH 45-55 MPH
AND LOCALLY HIGHER DURING THAT TIME...AND A WIND ADVISORY MAY BE
NECESSARY. FROSTY CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE WIND-SHELTERED
VALLEY LOCATIONS MONDAY NIGHT DUE TO THE LINGERING COLD AIR
MASS...LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES.

WEAKER OFFSHORE FLOW WILL FOLLOW FOR LATE TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WITH
A WEAK RIDGE MOVING IN OVERHEAD. THIS WILL RESULT IN DRY WEATHER
CONDITIONS AND A WARMING TREND...WITH FRIDAY BEING THE WARMEST DAY AS
DAY-TIME HIGHS REACH 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

THE FORECAST BEYOND FRIDAY IS VERY LOW CONFIDENCE...WITH THE GFS
DEVELOPING A BROAD AND WEAK CLOSED LOW OFF THE COAST AND OFFSHORE
FLOW CONTINUING...WHILE THE ECMWF BRINGS IN A TROUGH...ONSHORE FLOW
AND POSSIBLE SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION...
160400Z...COAST/VALLEYS...AREAS OF NORTHWEST WINDS 15G25KT...WITH
ISOLATED GUSTS 30-35 KT ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST AND OVER HIGHER
TERRAIN...WILL CONTINUE THROUGH ABOUT 08Z TONIGHT...BUT REMAIN
BREEZY THROUGH MONDAY. SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH BY EARLY
MONDAY MORNING...BUT VARIABLE CLOUDS WITH BASES 2000-4000 FT MSL
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 16Z MONDAY...WITH GRADUAL CLEARING AFTER 16Z.

MOUNTAINS/DESERTS...VARIABLE CLOUDS WITH BASES 3500-8000 FT MSL WILL
CONTINUE TONIGHT. SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSRA WILL PEAK THROUGH 04Z IN
THE RIVERSIDE AND SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY MOUNTAINS...ADDING TO THE
WIDESPREAD MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS. WESTERLY WINDS 25-35 KT WITH GUSTS
50-60 KT WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT...STRONGEST ALONG THE
RIDGES...DESERT MTN SLOPES...AND PASSES. STG-SVR
UDDFS...ROTORS...AND LLWS LIKELY OVER/E OF THE MTNS AND ADJACENT
DESERT AREAS...INCLUDING KPSP. VIS MAY BE REDUCED TO 3SM OR LESS AT
TIMES IN BLDU IN THE DESERTS. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN AFTER 12Z
MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
800 PM...WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS 25-35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT ARE
LIKELY TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY EVENING AS A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH
PASSES THROUGH THE REGION. COMBINED SEAS WILL REACH 8-14 FT...WITH
THE STEEP WAVES AND STRONG WINDS CREATING ROUGH AND DANGEROUS SEAS.
A GALE WARNING FOR THE INNER AND OUTER WATERS IS IN EFFECT THROUGH
10 PM MONDAY...SEE LAXMWWSGX FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS. A FEW SHOWERS
ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT. WIND AND SEA CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE
LATE MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.BEACHES...
800 PM...ELEVATED SURF OF 4-6 FT WITH LOCALLY HIGHER SETS ON EXPOSED
WEST FACING BEACHES AND STRONG RIP CURRENTS ARE LIKELY TONIGHT AND
MONDAY DUE TO LARGE WIND WAVES DEVELOPING OVER NEARSHORE WATERS.
SWELL AND SURF WILL QUICKLY LOWER BY TUESDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW WILL DEVELOP LATE MONDAY
NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING NEAR THE COASTAL FOOTHILLS OF THE SAN
BERNARDINO COUNTY MOUNTAINS...BELOW THE CAJON PASS...AND ALONG THE
COASTAL SLOPES OF THE SANTA ANA MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT INLAND ORANGE
COUNTY. NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS ON TUESDAY AS RH DROPS.

THE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AND BECOME MORE NORTHEASTERLY TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WITH THE WIND EXPANDING INTO THE SAN DIEGO
COUNTY MOUNTAINS. ALTHOUGH IT WILL BE WARMER...AND MINIMUM RH VALUES
ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 15-20 PERCENT RANGE...CURRENT WIND
FORECASTS DO NOT SUPPORT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.

WARM AND DRY THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH LIGHT WINDS.

&&

.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE
ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 10 AM PST MONDAY FOR APPLE AND LUCERNE
     VALLEYS-RIVERSIDE COUNTY MOUNTAINS-SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY
     MOUNTAINS-SAN DIEGO COUNTY DESERTS-SAN DIEGO COUNTY
     MOUNTAINS-SAN GORGONIO PASS NEAR BANNING.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM PST MONDAY FOR COACHELLA VALLEY-ORANGE
     COUNTY COASTAL AREAS-SAN DIEGO COUNTY COASTAL AREAS.

PZ...GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 PM PST MONDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM SAN
     MATEO POINT TO THE MEXICAN BORDER AND OUT TO 30 NM-WATERS
     FROM SAN MATEO POINT TO THE MEXICAN BORDER EXTENDING 30 TO
     60 NM OUT INCLUDING SAN CLEMENTE ISLAND.

&&

PUBLIC...HARRISON
AVIATION/MARINE/BEACHES...TS
FIRE WEATHER...JAD

In the hours before

Local storm report, Nov 15, 7:59 PM PST, 4 hours 1 minute before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
759 PM PST SUN NOV 15 2015

...TIME...  ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
...DATE...  ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0745 PM     HAIL             3 WSW LAKE ARROWHEAD    34.24N 117.23W
11/15/2015  E0.25 INCH       SAN BERNARDINO     CA   TRAINED SPOTTER

            SPOTTER REPORTS HALF INCH OF HAIL
            ACCUMULATION AND SUBSTANTIAL CLOUD TO GROUND
            LIGHTNING IN TWIN PEAKS...WHICH IS NEAR LAKE
            ARROWHEAD.

&&

SHARRISO

Local storm report, Nov 15, 8:24 PM PST, 3 hours 36 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
824 PM PST SUN NOV 15 2015

...TIME...  ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
...DATE...  ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0822 PM     HAIL             RUNNING SPRINGS         34.21N 117.11W
11/15/2015  E0.25 INCH       SAN BERNARDINO     CA   PUBLIC

            REPORT OF 2 INCHES OF ICE PELLET/GRAUPEL
            ACCUMULATION WITH THUNDER IN RUNNING
            SPRINGS.

&&

SHARRISO

The radar

The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.

Open the radar archive at this moment

Event by event

1 high wind, 1 strong wind, 1 high surf. Local standard time, as filed.

High Wind, San Diego County Coastal Areas

When: November 16, 12:00 AM PST to 6:00 AM PST
Where: San Diego County Coastal Areas forecast zone
Measured: 52 kt (60 mph) measured gust
Reported by: Mesonet
Coordinates: 33.028, -116.770 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)

A Carlsbad mesonet station (E0995) reported several wind gusts at or above 50 mph between 0000 and 1200 PST on the 16th, including two high wind gusts, 58 mph and 60 mph between 0000 and 0530 PST. The mesonet station at Point Loma Cabrillo reported sustained WNW winds around 40 mph between 0000 and 0430 PST on the 16th, including a peak gust of 58 mph measured twice between 0245-0315 PST.

Strong Wind, Orange County Coastal

When: November 16, 5:00 AM PST to 7:00 AM PST
Where: Orange County Coastal forecast zone
Measured: 30 kt (35 mph) estimated gust
Property damage: $15,000
Reported by: Newspaper
Coordinates: 33.677, -117.776 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)

Pine trees reported knocked down near Mcauliffe Middle School and damaged power lines by Los Alamitos High School. Power poles were knocked down in Seal Beach resulting in a power outage affecting 4242 customers.

High Surf, San Diego County Coastal Areas

When: November 16, 7:00 AM PST to 7:00 PM PST
Where: San Diego County Coastal Areas forecast zone
Reported by: Lifeguard
Coordinates: 33.028, -116.770 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)

Solana Beach lifeguards reported 6 foot surf with max sets to 8 feet. Mission Beach lifeguards reported 7 foot surf with max sets to 9 feet. Surfline reports 5 to 8 foot surf at Ocean Beach and 5 to 7 foot surf at Imperial Beach.

What these are

High Wind: Sustained non-thunderstorm winds of 40 mph or more for an hour, or gusts of 58 mph or more.
Strong Wind: Non-thunderstorm winds below high wind criteria that nonetheless caused damage or casualties.
High Surf: Large waves breaking on the shore that caused damage, erosion or casualties.

After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.

The same day elsewhere

Every storm in California in 2015 Every state in 2015 This day in weather history Warnings in California, November 2015

Sources

NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 608019, 608018, 608020.