Tornado and Hail in Texas, November 16, 2015

Name: Tornado and Hail in Texas, November 16, 2015
Start: 2015-11-16T18:46
End: 2015-11-16T20:35
Location: Texas

November 16, 2015 · NWS MAF · 3 events in 2 counties and zones

An upper low was over the Four Corners region with strong upper level jet winds over West Texas. Plentiful moisture was in place across the area to the east of a surface trough and dryline.

Where it happened

Every event with a place to put it. Tap one for its entry below.

Tornadoes
Tropical storms and surge
Floods
Wind
Hail
Winter weather
Heat and drought
Cold
Fire, smoke and dust
Marine and coastal
Other

Open the live radar over this ground

The toll

Deaths: 0
Injuries: 0
Property damage: $5,000
Crop damage: None recorded
Events: 3

Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.

What happened

The episode as NWS MAF wrote it up.

An upper low was over the Four Corners region with strong upper level jet winds over West Texas. Plentiful moisture was in place across the area to the east of a surface trough and dryline. A Pacific cold front moving in from the west collided with the dryline and increased lift. These conditions, along with good instability, allowed for a tornado and thunderstorms with large hail and strong winds to develop across the Permian Basin.

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Midland/Odessa, TX wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Nov 16, 6:20 PM CST, 26 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Nov 16, 6:20 PM CST, 26 minutes before

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
620 PM CST MON NOV 16 2015

.UPDATE...
Forecast updated for Tornado Watch 539 for extreme southeast New
Mexico, much of west Texas east of the Pecos River as well as
Pecos and Terrell Counties. This watch will be in effect until
2 AM CST /1 AM MST/. Chance of thunderstorms also pushed slightly
further west.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A strong cold front pushing into extreme southeast New Mexico and
southwest Texas will result in increasing coverage of
thunderstorms, particularly over the next couple of hours as the
front encounters a moist airmass in place over the Permian Basin
south through Terrell County. Though instability is not very strong,
significant convergence along the frontal boundary is expected to
help initiate and maintain a line of convection as it translates
across southwest Texas this evening. With strong shear, rotating
updrafts are expected, resulting in the potential for hail in
excess of 1 inch and possibly isolated tornadoes.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 528 PM CST MON NOV 16 2015/

DISCUSSION...
See 00Z aviation discussion below.

AVIATION...
Conditions will be VFR at area terminals as a rule through
Tuesday. The exception will be extreme southeast New Mexico and
across the Permian Basin, including the MAF terminal. Low clouds
are expected to move back into this area through early evening
bringing MVFR conditions due to ceilings. Thunderstorms are
expected to develop west of MAF and move through the area between
00Z and 02Z bringing some reduction in visibilities as well. Once
these thunderstorms move eastward, VFR conditions will spread
across the Permian Basin as well.

Strong winds from the south and southwest across the area at 00Z
will become westerly and remain strong through Tuesday afternoon.
Winds will generally be 20 knots with gusts to 30 knots or
stronger, though winds may be a little lighter at times late
tonight.

MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...High Wind Warning until 8 AM MST Tuesday FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains NP/Lincoln NF/LNZ...Guadalupe
     Mountains of Eddy County.

     Wind Advisory until 11 PM MST this evening FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Central Lea County...Eddy County Plains...Northern
     Lea County...Southeast Plains/BLM Roswell/LNZ...Southern
     Lea County.

TX...High Wind Warning until 9 AM CST /8 AM MST/ Tuesday FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES... Davis/Apache Mountains Area...Guadalupe
     Mountains.

     Wind Advisory until midnight CST tonight FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Loving...Marfa Plateau...Reeves County and Upper
     Trans Pecos.

     High Wind Warning until 6 AM CST Tuesday FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BIG SPRING TX                  42  60  36  69  /  80   0   0   0
CARLSBAD NM                    39  59  30  68  /  10   0   0   0
DRYDEN TX                      47  67  43  74  /  20   0   0   0
FORT STOCKTON TX               43  61  41  71  /  30   0   0   0
GUADALUPE PASS TX              31  47  33  58  /  10   0   0   0
HOBBS NM                       37  56  31  66  /  20   0   0   0
MARFA TX                       33  51  26  62  /  10   0   0   0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX        43  62  36  68  /  50   0   0   0
ODESSA TX                      43  61  37  68  /  50   0   0   0
WINK TX                        42  61  34  71  /  30   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...High Wind Warning until 8 AM MST Tuesday FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains NP/Lincoln NF/LNZ...Guadalupe
     Mountains of Eddy County.

     Wind Advisory until 11 PM MST this evening FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Central Lea County...Eddy County Plains...Northern
     Lea County...Southeast Plains/BLM Roswell/LNZ...Southern
     Lea County.

TX...High Wind Warning until 9 AM CST /8 AM MST/ Tuesday FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES... Davis/Apache Mountains Area...Guadalupe
     Mountains.

     Wind Advisory until midnight CST tonight FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Loving...Marfa Plateau...Reeves County and Upper
     Trans Pecos.

     High Wind Warning until 6 AM CST Tuesday FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor.

&&

05/99

Hazardous weather outlook, Nov 16, 6:29 PM CST, 17 minutes before

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
629 PM CST MON NOV 16 2015

NMZ027>029-033-034-TXZ045>048-050>053-057>063-067>070-074-075-
079>082-258-180030-
GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS OF EDDY COUNTY-EDDY COUNTY PLAINS-
NORTHERN LEA COUNTY-CENTRAL LEA COUNTY-SOUTHERN LEA COUNTY-GAINES-
DAWSON-BORDEN-SCURRY-ANDREWS-MARTIN-HOWARD-MITCHELL-
VAN HORN AND HIGHWAY 54 CORRIDOR-REEVES COUNTY AND UPPER TRANS PECOS-
LOVING-WINKLER-ECTOR-MIDLAND-GLASSCOCK-WARD-CRANE-UPTON-REAGAN-
DAVIS/APACHE MOUNTAINS AREA-PECOS-PRESIDIO VALLEY-MARFA PLATEAU-
BIG BEND AREA-TERRELL-GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS-
629 PM CST MON NOV 16 2015 /529 PM MST MON NOV 16 2015/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST NEW
MEXICO...SOUTHWEST TEXAS AND WEST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

TORNADO WATCH 539 IS IN EFFECT FOR EXTREME SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO
AND MUCH OF SOUTHWEST TEXAS EAST OF THE PECOS RIVER AS WELL AS
PECOS AND TERRELL COUNTIES THROUGH 2 AM CST /1 AM MST/. SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL IN EXCESS OF 1 INCH...DAMAGING WINDS
AND ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE IN THIS AREA.

A HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS
AND THE DAVIS MOUNTAINS ABOVE 6000 FEET THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.
SUSTAINED WINDS IN THE GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
BETWEEN 40 AND 55 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 85 MPH POSSIBLE. IN THE DAVIS
MOUNTAINS ABOVE 6000 FEET...30 TO 40 MPH WINDS GUSTING TO 60 MPH
ARE POSSIBLE. A HIGH WIND WARNING WILL ALSO BE IN EFFECT FOR THE
VAN HORN HIGHWAY 54 CORRIDOR FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING. SUSTAINED WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE BETWEEN 30
AND 40 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 60 MPH POSSIBLE.

WINDY CONDITIONS ARE ALSO EXPECTED ACROSS THE MARFA PLATEAU...THE
EASTERN SLOPES OF THE DAVIS MOUNTAINS...THE SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO
PLAINS...AS WELL AS THE UPPER TRANS PECOS. A WIND ADVISORY IS IN
EFFECT FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE THIS EVENING FOR THESE
AREAS. SUSTAINED WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE BETWEEN 25 AND 35 MPH
WITH GUSTS TO 50 MPH POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

HIGH WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING ACROSS THE
GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS...AND ELEVATIONS ABOVE 6000 FEET IN THE DAVIS
MOUNTAINS. THUS...A HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THESE
LOCATIONS THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. SUSTAINED WINDS IN THE
GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS ARE EXPECTED TO BE BETWEEN 40 AND 55 MPH WITH
GUSTS TO 85 MPH POSSIBLE. ELEVATIONS ABOVE 6000 FEET IN THE DAVIS
MOUNTAINS WILL EXPERIENCE SUSTAINED WINDS OF 30 TO 40 MPH GUSTING
TO AROUND 60 MPH.

WINDS WILL BE GUSTY TUESDAY IN THE PLAINS ALONG AND WEST OF A
LINE FROM TATUM TO LAMESA TO MIDLAND TO DRYDEN. WINDS OF 25 TO 35
MPH WITH GUSTS TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS REQUESTED.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
MIDLAND CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT /LOWER CASE/
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/MIDLAND

05

In the hours before

Special weather statement, Nov 16, 6:25 PM CST, 21 minutes before

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
625 PM CST MON NOV 16 2015

TXZ045-046-050-170115-
ANDREWS TX-GAINES TX-DAWSON TX-
625 PM CST MON NOV 16 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTH CENTRAL ANDREWS...EASTERN
GAINES AND WEST CENTRAL DAWSON COUNTIES UNTIL 715 PM CST...

AT 624 PM CST...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 8
MILES SOUTH OF SEMINOLE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS OF 50 TO 55 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE... SEMINOLE...CEDAR LAKE...GAINES COUNTY
AIRPORT...SAND...ASHMORE...FAIRVIEW IN GAINES COUNTY AND MCKENZIE
LAKE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY LEAD
TO FLASH FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 15 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

&&

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 200 AM CST FOR WESTERN TEXAS.

LAT...LON 3268 10200 3249 10270 3266 10279 3296 10234
      3296 10220
TIME...MOT...LOC 0024Z 242DEG 40KT 3260 10268

AHASIC

The radar

The Midland/Odessa radar (KMAF), 83 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 00:47 UTC.

Open the radar archive at this moment

Event by event

1 tornado, 1 thunderstorm wind, 1 hail. Local standard time, as filed.

Tornado, Gaines

When: November 16, 6:46 PM CST to 6:56 PM CST
Where: Gaines County, 12.64 mi ESE of Seminole to 10.32 mi SW of Cedar Lake
Rating: EF2
Path length: 5.57 mi
Path width: 100 yd
Reported by: NWS Storm Survey
Coordinates: 32.656, -102.446

A thunderstorm moved across Gaines County and produced a tornado. The tornado began east southeast of Seminole at approximately 6:46 pm CST and moved northeast. It had caused power pole and irrigation equipment damage and was likely an EF-1 at 6:48 pm. At 6:50 pm, the tornado briefly reached EF-2 intensity as it caused damage to a well service rig. The last visible damage was to an area of trees just north of the intersection of Highway 180 and County Road 433 east of Seminole. A cotton field was also damaged as a result of this tornado. The path width was estimated to be 100 yards. There is not enough information to determine an approximate cost of damage.

Thunderstorm Wind, Gaines

When: November 16, 6:53 PM CST to 6:54 PM CST
Where: Gaines County, 11.83 mi SW of Cedar Lake
Measured: 61 kt (70 mph) estimated gust
Property damage: $5,000
Reported by: Emergency Manager
Coordinates: 32.711, -102.416

A thunderstorm moved across Gaines County and produced wind damage east of Seminole. Two power poles were reported to be snapped at US Highway 180 and Farm to Market Road 303. The cost of damage is a rough estimate.

Hail, Ector

When: November 16, 8:30 PM CST to 8:35 PM CST
Where: Ector County, 5 mi SW of Odessa
Measured: 1 in hail
Reported by: Public
Coordinates: 31.799, -102.430

What these are

Tornado: A violently rotating column of air in contact with the ground and extending from a thunderstorm, filed with its path, width and Fujita or Enhanced Fujita rating from the damage survey.
Thunderstorm Wind: Winds from a thunderstorm of 50 knots (58 mph) or more, or lower winds that caused damage or casualties. Measured gusts are marked MG, estimated EG.
Hail: Hail three-quarters of an inch or larger, or smaller hail that caused damage, filed with the largest stone measured.

After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.

The same day elsewhere

Every storm in Texas in 2015 Every state in 2015 This day in weather history The tornado archive for Texas, 2015 Warnings in Texas, November 2015

Sources

NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 608169, 604310, 604313.