In advance of a strong upper level low in the four corners region and a Pacific cold front, rich moisture from the Gulf of Mexico aided in the development of scattered thunderstorms early this afternoon over the western South Plains. Strong wind shear allowed for one of these storms to become a long-lived supercell that raced northeast at nearly 50 mph from near Morton to west of Vigo Park.
Every event with a place to put it. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS LUB wrote it up.
In advance of a strong upper level low in the four corners region and a Pacific cold front, rich moisture from the Gulf of Mexico aided in the development of scattered thunderstorms early this afternoon over the western South Plains. Strong wind shear allowed for one of these storms to become a long-lived supercell that raced northeast at nearly 50 mph from near Morton to west of Vigo Park. This storm reached severe levels in Swisher County before producing significant tornadoes early in the evening in NWS Amarillo's forecast area. Farther south and just after sunset, the Pacific cold front ignited a few lines of strong and severe thunderstorms over the South Plains - some of which produced localized flooding and damaging downburst winds particularly in the city of Lubbock.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Lubbock, TX wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Nov 16, 2:48 PM CST, 2 hours 9 minutes earlier.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX 248 PM CST MON NOV 16 2015 .SHORT TERM... EARLY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION WRN NM...WRN SOUTH PLAINS...AND WRN PANHANDLE GENERALLY HAVING DIFFICULTY STRENGTHENING. EVOLUTION PER RADAR SUGGESTS SHEAR OVERCOMING MODEST INSTABILITY RESULTING IN STORMS UNABLE TO MAINTAIN THEIR UPDRAFTS. THIS MAY CHANGE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AS LIFT MOVES OVER AREA OF RICHER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. DEW POINT TEMPS IN THE MIDDLE 50S TO LOWER 60S ALONG AND EAST OF I-27. THIS WILL KEEP A WINDOW OPEN NOT JUST FOR CONVECTION TO BECOME MORE NUMEROUS BUT THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER TO DEVELOP. HOWEVER...THAT WINDOW WILL BEGIN TO SHUT WITH SUNSET AS INSTABILITY DECREASES WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES. PERSISTENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION ON STIFF SOUTH WINDS AS WELL AS INCREASING DEEP LAYER ASCENT FROM APPROACH OF THE VERY STRONG SYSTEM WILL KEEP CHANCES FOR CONVECTION ONGOING UNTIL PACIFIC FRONT SWEEPS EAST OF THE FCST AREA...LIKELY AROUND MIDNIGHT. PREVIOUS FCST HANDLES WELL WITH ONLY SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS NEEDED ATTM. FOCUS THEN SHIFTS TO WIND POTENTIAL ON TUESDAY. MID LEVEL CLOSED LOW WILL MOVE FROM THE NWRN PANHANDLE AT 12Z TO NWRN OKLA AND SCNTL/SWRN KS BY END OF DAY. HEIGHT GRADIENT SOUTH OF THE LOW AND MAGNITUDE OF PROGGED MID LEVEL JET STREAK ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE 700 MB TROUGH SUPPORT WARNING CRITERIA. HOWEVER WITH LOW TO MID LEVEL COLD ADVECTION DO NOT EXPECT MIXING TO BE TERRIBLY EFFICIENT. THIS SETUP IS NOT TOO DIFFERENT FROM LAST WEEK. MOST LIKELY OUTCOME IS SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS OF 25 TO 30 MPH WITH SOME PERIODS UP TO 35 MPH...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE NRN HALF OF THE FCST AREA. FINALLY...WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY THROUGH THE EVENING...ALTHOUGH LIKELY DECREASING A BIT WITH SUNSET. WINDS HAVE CONSISTENTLY BEEN JUST OVER THE 30 MPH MARK ACROSS THE NWRN ZONES WHERE A WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM. WILL CONTINUE WITH THE ADVISORY ATTM WITH THE LIKELIHOOD THAT IT WILL BE ALLOW TO EXPIRE ON TIME. .LONG TERM... AFTER AN EVENTFUL START TO THE WEEK...QUIET WEATHER WILL BE IN STORE IN THE LONG TERM. NORTH TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE AT THE SURFACE BY TUES NIGHT AS AN UPPER AND SURFACE LOW PASS TO OUR NORTHEAST. THIS WILL BE THE FIRST OF A GRADUAL COOL DOWN AS HIGHS TREND NEAR TO BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGE. A SECOND AND MORE STOUT COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION FRI EVENING/SAT MORNING WHICH WILL MAKE WAY FOR A COLD SUNDAY. MOST AREAS AS OF NOW ARE EXPECTED TO SEE TEMPS AT OR BELOW FREEZING BY SUNDAY MORNING THANKS TO A SURFACE HIGH HELPING TO COOL DOWN ALREADY COLD TEMPS. BY NEXT WEEK A DEEP UPPER LOW WILL BEGIN TO TAKE SHAPE ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WHILE A SURFACE LEE TROF DEVELOPS TO OUR NORTHWEST HELPING TO KEEP WINDS OUT OF THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST. THIS WILL ALLOW A SLIGHT WARMING TREND IN TEMPS...THOUGH TEMPS SHOULD STILL REMAIN CLOSE TO SEASONAL AVERAGE. && .LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR TXZ021-022-027. && 07/51
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX 450 PM CST MON NOV 16 2015 TXZ021>044-172300- PARMER-CASTRO-SWISHER-BRISCOE-HALL-CHILDRESS-BAILEY-LAMB-HALE- FLOYD-MOTLEY-COTTLE-COCHRAN-HOCKLEY-LUBBOCK-CROSBY-DICKENS-KING- YOAKUM-TERRY-LYNN-GARZA-KENT-STONEWALL- 450 PM CST MON NOV 16 2015 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE EXTREME SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE...SOUTH PLAINS AND ROLLING PLAINS. .DAY ONE...TONIGHT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME MORE NUMEROUS EARLY THIS EVENING AS LIFT FROM A STRONG STORM SYSTEM INCREASES ACROSS THE SOUTH PLAINS AREA. THUNDERSTORMS ARE MORE LIKELY TO BECOME SEVERE ONCE THEY CROSS THE DRYLINE...WHICH AT 445 PM EXTENDED FROM AN OLTON TO LEVELLAND LINE. EAST OF THE DRYLINE AND NORTH OF TEXAS HIGHWAY 114 THERE IS A RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER. ISOLATED TORNADOES...HAIL TO THE SIZE OF HALF DOLLARS...AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE. AS THE STORMS BECOME MORE NUMEROUS AND ATTEMPT TO ORGANIZE INTO A LINE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BECOME THE PRIMARY THREAT. A TORNADO WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR MOST OF THE SOUTH PLAINS AREA UNTIL 9 PM. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS OF 25 TO 35 MPH ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TUESDAY. A WIND ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED THIS EVENING.
The Amarillo radar (KAMA), 57 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 22:54 UTC.
4 thunderstorm wind, 1 hail. Local standard time, as filed.
A few hailstones as large as hen eggs were observed along FM Road 2301 northwest of Vigo Park. No damage was noted.
A severe downburst traveled from near 63rd Street and Elgin Avenue in northwest Lubbock to the Lubbock International Airport. A NWS storm survey team estimated winds of 80 mph in northwest Lubbock where some trees were uprooted and multiple power lines and/or poles were downed. One of the fallen trees caused some damage to a house. At the Lubbock International Airport, a wind gust of 71 mph was measured at 1918 CST which destroyed some windows in an empty hangar and pushed a luggage cart into a King Air 99 aircraft, but the plane was not damaged. Also, a Texas Tech University West Texas mesonet station northwest of the campus measured a gust to 59 mph at 1915 CST.
A horse barn east of Abernathy was blown and rolled a few hundred feet.
Measured by a Texas Tech University West Texas mesonet station.
Measured by a Texas Tech University West Texas mesonet station.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Texas in 2015Every state in 2015This day in weather historyWarnings in Texas, November 2015
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 602389, 602381, 602383, 602387, 602388.