Winter Storm and High Wind in California, January 10 to 11, 2013

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
120 PM PST THU JAN 10 2013

.SYNOPSIS...

A LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BRING WINDY AND MUCH COLDER
CONDITIONS TO THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY. SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE OVER NEAR THE GRAPEVINE. BREEZY AND COLD CONDITIONS
WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH MUCH BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES INCLUDING OVERNIGHT FROSTS AND FREEZES IN MANY AREAS.
UNSEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES WILL LINGER MONDAY...BUT THEN A
WARMUP SHOULD OCCUR BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE AND
OFFSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-SUN)...TODAY'S WEATHER TURNED OUT PRETTY MUCH
SPOT ON WITH EXPECTATIONS. FRONT PASSED THROUGH IN THE MORNING WITH
SHOWERS MOSTLY CONFINED TO AREAS NORTH OF PT CONCEPTION, THE
GRAPEVINE, AND EASTERN LA COUNTY. AMOUNTS WERE LIGHT, MOSTLY A FEW
HUNDREDTHS, EXCEPT A LITTLE HIGHER IN THE EASTERN SAN GABRIELS WHERE
UPSLOPE FLOW AND A LITTLE ENHANCEMENT LATE IN THE MORNING BROUGHT
THE NUMBERS UP THERE.

PRECIP THREAT IS ENDING FOR THE MOST PART AS WE TRANSITION TO A
COLD/BREEZY NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THAT
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL INTERACT WITH LINGERING MOISTURE NEAR THE
GRAPEVINE THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY SPAWNING SOME SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS
THERE WITH MINIMAL ACCUMULATIONS. OTHERWISE JUST WINDY AND COLD
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. WINDS WILL LIKELY KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM
DROPPING TOO LOW TONIGHT, THOUGH CENTRAL COAST AND THE OJAI VALLEY
AREAS WILL LIKELY GET TO OR JUST BELOW THE FREEZING MARK TONIGHT AND
FROST ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN POSTED THERE.

WINDS ADVISORIES ARE UP FOR MUCH OF THE REMAINING CWA THROUGH AT
LEAST THIS EVENING. WARNING LEVEL WIND GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE
HIGHER MOUNTAIN PEAKS THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AND SOME ADVISORIES
MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED ANOTHER 12-24 HOURS.

LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THE FLOW SHIFTS MORE TO THE NORTHEAST AND WEAKENS,
ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO DROP EVEN FURTHER. IN FACT, SAT IS EXPECTED
TO BE THE COLDEST MORNING OF THE SEASON FOR THE ENTIRE AREA. MID 20S
ARE LIKELY ACROSS MANY COASTAL VALLEY AREAS AND POSSIBLY THE CENTRAL
COAST AS WELL. CLOSER TO THE BEACH TEMPS WILL BE A LITTLE WARMER,
BUT EVEN VENTURA AND SRN SB COAST LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP IN THE
LOWER 30S AND POSSIBLY UPPER 20S. LA COAST SHOULD STAY 34 OR ABOVE
BUT COULD STILL SEE SOME PATCHES OF FROST IN THE COLDER AREAS. A
SERIES OF FREEZE WATCHES AND FROST AVISORIES WILL BE ISSUED WITH THE
AFTERNOON FORECAST. OVERNIGHT LOWS SUNDAY EXPECTED TO BE VERY
SIMILAR TO SAT SO MORE FREEZE/FROST HEADLINES LIKELY TO BE NEEDED.

SKIES EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY CLEAR FRI/SAT. ON SUNDAY THE MODELS ARE
SHOWING ANOTHER TROF DROPPING SOUTH THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN. THE GFS
HAS BEEN FARTHER WEST WITH IT THAN THE OTHERS BUT EVEN THAT MODEL
KEEPS THE AREA MOSTLY DRY. THE NAM SHOWS THE LOW DROPPING SOUTH
ALONG THE CA/NV BORDER WHILE THE EC IS MUCH FURTHER EAST. IT LOOKS
LIKE THE MAIN IMPACT FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL BE TO MAINTAIN A COOL,
NORTHERLY FLOW PATTERN OVER THE AREA, KEEPING HIGHS AND LOWS ABOUT
10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. KEEPING THE SUNDAY FORECAST DRY WITH JUST
SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDS.

.LONG TERM (MON-THU)...STILL QUITE COOL MONDAY WITH YET ANOTHER
ROUND OF FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES POSSIBLE FOR THE MORNING. A SLIGHT
WARMUP EXPECTED BY TUESDAY AS THE RIDGE SLOWLY BUILDS IN FROM THE
WEST. OFFSHORE FLOW INCREASES TUESDAY THROUGH THU, POSSIBLY
GENERATING SOME NEAR ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS ACROSS VENTURA/LA COUNTIES
BY MID WEEK. HIGHS EXPECTED TO CLIMB TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS BY WED
OR THU WITH MID 70S POSSIBLE IN THE VALLEYS. RIDGE EXPECTED TO HOLD
RIGHT ON INTO NEXT WEEKEND FOR A LENGTHY DRY SPELL WITH TEMPS ABOVE
NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...10/1800Z.
A FEW STRAY SHOWERS LINGER...MAINLY NEAR THE MOUNTAINS AND
FOOTHILLS. OTHERWISE VFR TO OCCASIONALLY MVFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL
ACROSS THE AREA. VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY.
STRONG GUSTY WINDS WILL ALSO CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING BEFORE
SUBSIDING SOME OVERNIGHT. THERE WILL BE THE POSSIBILITY OF LOW LEVEL
WIND SHEAR AND TURBULENCE NEAR ANY TAF SITE THROUGH THIS EVENING.

KLAX AND KBUR...VFR TO OCCASIONALLY MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BECOME VFR
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. GUSTY WINDS THROUGH THIS EVENING WILL CREATE
THE POSSIBILITY OF LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR AND TURBULENCE.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WARNING (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY (SEE LAXCFWLOX).
FREEZE WATCH (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
WIND ADVISORY (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
GALE WARNING (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
HIGH SURF ADVISORY (SEE LAXCFWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT (SEE LAXSPSLOX).

&&

PUBLIC...MW
AVIATION...SWEET
SYNOPSIS...SETO

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
245 PM PST THU JAN 10 2013

CAZ034>041-044>046-051>054-059-087-088-547-548-111400-
SAN LUIS OBISPO COUNTY CENTRAL COAST-
SANTA BARBARA COUNTY CENTRAL COAST-SANTA YNEZ VALLEY-
SAN LUIS OBISPO COUNTY INTERIOR VALLEYS-CUYAMA VALLEY-
SANTA BARBARA COUNTY SOUTH COAST-VENTURA COUNTY COAST-
LOS ANGELES COUNTY COAST INCLUDING DOWNTOWN LOS ANGELES-
VENTURA COUNTY INTERIOR VALLEYS-VENTURA COUNTY COASTAL VALLEYS-
SANTA MONICA MOUNTAINS RECREATIONAL AREA-
SAN LUIS OBISPO COUNTY MOUNTAINS-
SANTA BARBARA COUNTY MOUNTAINS-VENTURA COUNTY MOUNTAINS-
LOS ANGELES COUNTY MOUNTAINS EXCLUDING THE SANTA MONICA RANGE-
ANTELOPE VALLEY-CATALINA ISLAND-SANTA CLARITA VALLEY-
LOS ANGELES COUNTY SAN FERNANDO VALLEY-
LOS ANGELES COUNTY SAN GABRIEL VALLEY-
245 PM PST THU JAN 10 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA.

.DAY ONE... TODAY AND TONIGHT

STRONG WINDS WILL MAKE FOR HAZARDOUS DRIVING TODAY. LOW ELEVATION
SNOW WILL CREATE ADDITIONAL HAZARDS NEAR THE GRAPEVINE. STRONG
WINDS AND COLD TEMPERATURES WILL CREATE DANGEROUS WIND CHILL
READINGS IN THE MOUNTAINS. SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST AND IN THE OJAI VALLEY TONIGHT. HAZARDS WILL
ABOUND AT THE BEACHES WITH HIGH SURF...RIP CURRENTS AND COASTAL
TIDAL FLOODING ALL OCCURRING SIMULTANEOUSLY. MARINERS WILL FACE
HAZARDOUS GALE FORCE WINDS BOTH OVER THE INNER AND OUTER WATERS.

* HIGH WIND WARNING..........SEE WWUS76 KLOX - NPWLOX FOR DETAILS *

* COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY.....SEE WHUS46 KLOX - CFWLOX FOR DETAILS *

* WIND ADVISORY..............SEE WWUS76 KLOX - NPWLOX FOR DETAILS *

* FROST ADVISORY.............SEE WWUS76 KLOX - NPWLOX FOR DETAILS *

* GALE WARNING...............SEE WHUS76 KLOX - MWWLOX FOR DETAILS *

* HIGH SURF ADVISORY.........SEE WHUS46 KLOX - CFWLOX FOR DETAILS *

* HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK......SEE FZUS56 KLOX - SRFLOX FOR DETAILS *

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN... FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE EACH MORNING FRIDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY WITH SATURDAY BEING THE COLDEST OF THEM ALL. THE BEACHES
WILL HAVE A RISK OF HIGH SURF...RIP CURRENTS AND COASTAL TIDAL
FLOODING THROUGH SATURDAY.

* COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY.....SEE WHUS46 KLOX - CFWLOX FOR DETAILS *

* FREEZE WATCH...............SEE WWUS76 KLOX - NPWLOX FOR DETAILS *

* FROST ADVISORY.............SEE WWUS76 KLOX - NPWLOX FOR DETAILS *

* HIGH SURF ADVISORY.........SEE WHUS46 KLOX - CFWLOX FOR DETAILS *

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

MW

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OXNARD CA
411 PM PST THU JAN 10 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0141 AM     HIGH SUST WINDS  2 NE REFUGIO STATE BEAC 34.49N 120.05W
01/10/2013  M44.00 MPH       SANTA BARBARA      CA   MESONET

            NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 44 MPH AT LAS FLORES
            CANYON...ELEVATION 620 FEET.

0300 AM     NON-TSTM WND GST 1 WNW POINT ARGUELLO    34.58N 120.65W
01/10/2013  M46.00 MPH       PZZ670             CA   C-MAN STATION

            NORTHWEST WINDS 41 MPH GUSTING TO 46 MPH AT POINT
            ARGUELLO CMAN BUOY.

0757 AM     NON-TSTM WND GST 6 SSW CASTAIC LAKE      34.57N 118.74W
01/10/2013  M56.00 MPH       LOS ANGELES        CA   MESONET

            NORTHWEST WINDS 37 MPH GUSTING TO 56 MPH AT WHITAKER PEAK
            RAWS...ELEVATION 4120 FEET.

&&

HALL