28. The arctic front was stationary over Lynn Canal at the time.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS AJK wrote it up.
A storm force low in the Western Gulf of Alaska caused a strong warm front to move onto the Eastern Gulf Coast early on the morning of 11.28. The arctic front was stationary over Lynn Canal at the time. This setup caused heavy snow for the Yakutat area, Pelican, Elfin Cove, and Haines.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Juneau, AK wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Nov 27, 3:55 PM AKST, 5 hours 5 minutes earlier.
SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
355 PM AKST SUN NOV 27 2011
.SHORT TERM...COMPLICATED SHORT RANGE FORECAST IN THE WORKS.
STRONG STORM WILL BE AFFECTING THE AREA STARTING LATE TONIGHT AND
INTO TOMORROW. BRINGING MORE PRECIP AND WIND. THE MAIN FORECAST
CHALLENGE FOR THIS SYSTEM IS HOW FAST AND HOW FAR NORTH THE WARM
ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL PUSH THE RAIN/SNOW LINE ON
MONDAY. THE VARIOUS SHORT RANGE MODELS ARE NOT AGREEING ON THIS
ISSUE VERY WELL. THE NAM IS THE COLDEST, KEEPING MANY AREAS COLD
ENOUGH THAT MOST OF THE PRECIP FALLS AS SNOW WITH SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS WELL INTO WARNING CRITERIA OVER MOST INNER CHANNEL AREAS.
THE GFS ON THE OTHER HAND IS MUCH WARMER SWITCHING THE SNOW OVER
TO RAIN EARLY ON MONDAY WITH SNOWFALL AMOUNTS NOT EVEN
APPROACHING ADVISORY LEVELS. WITH THE HIGH SPREAD BETWEEN THE
MODELS ON TEMPERATURE AND SNOWFALL DECIDED TO GO WITH A MIDDLE OF
THE ROAD APPROACH. THUS LARGELY LEFT THE CURRENT WINTER WEATHER
HEADLINES ALONE. STILL EXPECTING 3 TO 6 INCHES IN THE ADVISORY
AREAS AND 5 TO 10 INCHES IN THE WARNING AREAS THROUGH MON
AFTERNOON BEFORE THE SNOW TAPERS OFF OR CHANGES TO RAIN.
IN ANY CASE THE MOISTURE WILL BE THERE TO SUPPORT THIS SYSTEM AS
A ATMOSPHERIC RIVER IS FEEDING IT ALL THE WAY FROM 20 DEGREES
NORTH LATITUDE AND A NICE BAROCLINIC LEAF IS FORMING ALONG THE
FRONT IN THE NORTH PACIFIC AS SEEN FROM SATELLITE IMAGES. TPW
VALUES UP TO 25 TO 30 MM WERE MEASURED WITH IN THIS SYSTEM FROM
THE MICROWAVE SENSORS ON THE VARIOUS POLAR SATELLITES AS WELL.
MODELS ARE ALSO SUGGESTING SOME DECENT ISENTROPIC LIFT OVER THE
AREA AS WELL.
WIND WILL ALSO BE PROBLEM AS THIS FRONT COMES THROUGH. GALE FORCE
WINDS ARE EXPECTED ALONG ALL OF THE OUTSIDE WATERS LATE TONIGHT
AND WILL BE DIMINISHING MONDAY. FOR THE INNER CHANNELS, CLARENCE
STRAIT AND SUMNER STRAIT WILL SEE GALE FORCE WINDS AT SOME POINT
MONDAY. MOST OF THE OTHER INNER CHANNELS WILL SEE SMALL CRAFT
WINDS AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. AS FOR THE LAND AREAS, STRONG
WIND HEADLINES ARE UP FOR SITKA, HYDABURG, AND KETCHIKAN ZONES
LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY MON AS A DECENT 65 KT 850 MB JET POUNDS
INTO THE PANHANDLE. I EXPECT GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH IN THE HEADLINED
AREA. BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF THE
PANHANDLE, BUT SOME OCCASIONAL HIGHER WIND GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE AS
THE FRONT PUSHES THROUGH.
SHORT RANGE MODELS DID NOT INITIALIZE IN THE UPPER LEVELS ALL
THAT WELL THIS MORNING. MOST WERE STILL A BIT TOO WEAK WITH THE
STRENGTH OF THE JET COMPARED TO SATELLITE DERIVED WIND VECTORS.
OTHER UPPER LEVEL FEATURES WERE NOT VERY WELL REPRESENTED EITHER.
ON THE OTHER HAND SURFACE INITIALIZATION WAS DECENT. 12Z NAM WAS A
BIT OFF WITH THE SURFACE LOW POSITION NEAR KODIAK ISLAND, BUT ALL
DID OK WITH REPRESENTING THE FRONT. DECIDED ON BLEND OF NAM AND
GFS WITH A SPRINKLING OF OTHER MODELS FOR THE VARIOUS FORECAST
FIELDS. FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS ABOUT AVERAGE DUE TO UNCERTAINTY ON
TEMPERATURE AND SNOWFALL AMOUNTS.
&&
.LONG TERM...EXPECT A CHANGE IN THE LONG WAVE PATTERN BY MID WEEK
AS A STRONG HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE BUILDS FROM THE NORTHEAST
PACIFIC AND ACROSS B.C. AND LEAVS THE PANHANDLE UNDER A LONG FETCH
SW FLOW.
FIRST LOW FROM SHORT TERM WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN YUKON MONDAY
NIGHT LEAVING A MODERATE WESTERLY ACROSS THE GULF OF ALASKA
THROUGH TUESDAY. SURFACE HIGH AND RIDGE ALOFT MOVE INTO THE
EASTERN GULF TUESDAY NIGHT AND TILTS EAST INTO CANADA ON
WEDNESDAY. A STRONG 160 KT JET STREAM RIDES NE ON BACK SIDE OF THE
RIDGE INTO NE GULF WEDNESDAY AND SLOWLY PUSHES ACROSS SOUTHEAST
ALASKA THURSDAY. ANOTHER WAVE FOLLOWS FRIDAY. RIDGE REBUILDS
ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF SATURDAY.
WILL BEGIN THE LONG TERM WITH A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW BEHIND FIRST
FRONT AND WESTERLY FLOW. DO NOT FORSEE SIGNIFICANT RAIN OR SNOW
AMOUNTS WITH THIS AS ATMO IS STABILIZING. POPS DROP OFF ACROSS
SOUTHERN HALF AS HIGH BUILDS IN MON NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THERE
WILL LIKELY BE AREAS OF FOG. HYDER COULD GET BACK INTO COLD
DRAINAGE FROM INTERIOR WITH SUBFREEZING TEMPS. NORTHERN AREAS
STILL IN ONSHORE FLOW AND WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF MIXED RAIN AND
SNOW.
AS RIDGE SHIFTS EAST ON WEDNESDAY...A 160 KT SSW JET STREAM MOVES
TO PAYA WITH HEAVY RAIN. SOLID SLY GALES MOVE INTO THE EASTERN
GULF FROM THE WEST ON WED AND WILL BRING WARMER TEMPS TO THE AREA.
GFS IS ADVERTISING 4 TO 7 INCHES OF RAIN FOR YAKUTAT ZONE. THIS
WILL FALL ON TOP OF AN UNUSUALLY DEEP NOVEMBER SNOW PACK AND WILL
INCREASE SNOW LOADS AND EVENTUALLY THE THREAT OF URBAN TYPE
FLOODING WHERE STORM DRAINS AND DITCHES ARE BURIED.
THE RAIN SPREADS ACROSS SOUTHEAST ALASKA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY WITH RAIN OR POSSIBLY SNOW CHANGING TO RAIN IN THE FAR
NORTH. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE MODERATELY HEAVY AND WILL ALSO HAVE
SNOW LOAD AND URBAN FLOOD ISSUES AS WELL AS INCREASED AVALANCHE
DANGER, WINDS ON THE INNER CHANNELS WILL INCREASE TO SMCR TO GALES
AND A STRONG WIND FOR CLARENCE AND SOUTHERN AND COASTAL ZONES.
SNOW LEVEL ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB TO 3K IN THE NORTH AND 6 K SOUTH.
A SECOND WAVE MOVES ACROSS NORTHERN GULF FRIDAY BUT STILL HAVE LOW
UNCERTAINTY IN POSITION TIMING AND INTENSITY. COULD SEE A QUICK
SHOT OF SNOW AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM BUT IT WILL GO BACK TO ALL RAIN
WITH ONSHORE WAA.
USED A NAM GFS BLEND THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY THEN HPC AND A GFS/EC
BLEND BEYOND.
.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 3 PM AKST
MONDAY FOR AKZ018-020-021-024>026.
STRONG WIND FROM MIDNIGHT AKST TONIGHT THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR
AKZ027.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 3 PM AKST MONDAY
FOR AKZ017-019-022.
STRONG WIND FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 3 AM AKST MONDAY FOR
AKZ023.
STRONG WIND FROM 3 AM AKST MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR
AKZ028.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FOR PKZ022-035-036-041>043-051-052.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ011>013-021-031>034-053.
&&
EAL/MM3 winter storm. Local standard time, as filed.
NWS WSO Yakutat measured 7.3 inches of new snow on 11.27, most of which fell during the evening. An additional inch fell after midnight. Snow changed to rain early in the morning. Wind gusts were up to 25 KT.
Downtown Haines measured 21.5 inches of new snow on the morning of 11.28 and the snow changed to rain in the afternoon. Visibility at the airport was as low as 1/4 mile and a peak wind was measured at 30 KT. Haines Customs got 8.0 inches of new snow.
Pelican measured 4.6 inches of new snow on the morning of 11.28 then the snow changed to rain. Cape Spencer had wind gusts up to 48 KT.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Alaska in 2011Every state in 2011This day in weather historyWarnings in Alaska, November 2011
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 352857, 352858, 352860.