As an usually strong upper level low pressure system moved across Middle Tennessee, on Sunday, November 27th and Monday, November 28th, it produced periods of rainfall. This rainfall resulted in several roads across Rutherford County being closed on Sunday and early Monday morning.
Every event with a place to put it. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS OHX wrote it up.
As an usually strong upper level low pressure system moved across Middle Tennessee, on Sunday, November 27th and Monday, November 28th, it produced periods of rainfall. This rainfall resulted in several roads across Rutherford County being closed on Sunday and early Monday morning. Enough rainfall also occurred by Monday, November 28th to result in flooding damage across five counties in the Cumberland Plateau Region of the mid state.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Nashville, TN wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Nov 26, 11:20 PM CST, 4 hours 27 minutes earlier.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN 1120 PM CST SAT NOV 26 2011 .UPDATE...FOR 06Z AVIATION FORECAST && .AVIATION... FLYING CONDITIONS ACROSS MIDDLE TENNESSEE WILL DETERIORATE QUICKLY OVERNIGHT AS WIDESPREAD RAIN OVERSPREADS MIDDLE TENNESSEE. THIS WILL RESULT IN RAIN INDUCED LOW CEILINGS AND VSBYS ACROSS THE AREA. IN ADDITION...VAD WIND PROFILE IS SHOWING SOUTH WINDS IN EXCESS OF 50 KTS AROUND 2 AND 3K. EXPECT THESE WINDS TO CONTINUE UNTIL ABOUT 15Z SUNDAY AT BNA AND 18Z AT CSV. POOR FLYING CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE BEYOND THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS DEEPENING UPPER LOW SLOWLY WORKS INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. BOYD && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 928 PM CST SAT NOV 26 2011/ UPDATE... MAIN COLD FRONT REMAINS WELL TO THE WEST AND CURRENTLY STRETCHES FROM POPLAR BLUFF MO TO LITTLE ROCK AR. PRE-FRONTAL LINE OF SHOWERS APPROACHING WESTERN CWA BORDER AND SHOULD ENTER THE AREA AROUND 10 PM...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER WESTERN PARTS OF THE MID STATE AHEAD OF THE LINE AND AN EXTENSIVE STRATIFORM RAIN SHIELD BEHIND THE LINE WELL INTO ARKANSAS. CATEGORICAL POPS OVERNIGHT WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL MENTION CONTINUES TO SEEM WARRANTED. ALSO SEEING A WARM EVENING AREAWIDE WITH TEMPS IN THE 60S AND DEWPOINTS AROUND 50...AND ONLY TWEAKED TEMPS BASED ON CURRENT OBS. DID BUMP UP WINDS A BIT BASED ON CURRENT OBS BUT NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO FORECAST TONIGHT. LATEST 18Z GFS AND 00Z NAM STILL SHOWING HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL FOR THE PLATEAU THROUGH MONDAY WITH SEVERAL INCHES OF RAINFALL POSSIBLE. SINCE RAIN WILL OCCUR OVER AN EXTENDED TIME PERIOD...WILL NOT ISSUE FLOOD WATCH ATTM BUT CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE SITUATION CLOSELY. LATEST GFS/NAM MODELS ALSO REMAIN IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON UPPER LOW MOVING ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY MONDAY AND TUESDAY BUT DIFFER SIGNIFICANTLY ON TRACK...WHICH HAS MAJOR IMPACTS ON THE POTENTIAL FOR SNOW SHOWERS AND ANY ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE MID STATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A COLD RAIN/WET SNOW MIX IN CENTRAL/WESTERN ZONES MONDAY NIGHT...WITH SNOW MORE LIKELY ON THE PLATEAU ESPECIALLY HIGHER ELEVATIONS. HAVE MADE NO CHANGES TO FORECAST FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK AT THIS TIME AND WILL LET MID SHIFT TAKE A LOOK AT THE HOPEFULLY MORE CLARIFYING 00Z GLOBAL MODEL RUNS. PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 557 PM CST SAT NOV 26 2011/ UPDATE...FOR 00Z AVIATION FORECAST AVIATION... GOOD ISENTROPIC LIFT UNDERWAY ON 295 KELVIN SURFACE THIS EVENING ACROSS WESTERN TENNESSEE WITH NUMEROUS SHOWERS IN WESTERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE MOVING RAPIDLY NORTHEAST. LOW LEVEL JET INITIALLY IN THE 35 TO 40 KT RANGE WILL INCREASE TOWARD MIDNIGHT INTO THE 50 TO 70 KT RANGE. THIS WILL INTENSIFY LIFT AND SHOWER PRODUCTION IN THE MID STATE WITH LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS. POOR FLYING CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN OVER WESTERN AREAS THIS EVENING AND PROGRESS EASTWARD IN THE OVERNIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY ON SUNDAY. INSPITE OF STRONG LIFT THUNDERSTORM CHANGES IN THE MID STATE CONTINUE TO LOOK NIL DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS DUE TO THE LACK OF THERMODYNAMIC INSTABILITY. BOYD PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 321 PM CST SAT NOV 26 2011/ DISCUSSION... PRESSURE GRADIENT RATHER TIGHT THIS AFTERNOON AS WINDS OF GENERALLY 10-20 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS PREVAIL. OTW...CLOUDS ON THE INCREASE WITH MILD TEMPS IN PLACE. FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND A LARGE AREA OF RAIN SHOWERS TO OUR WEST WILL BE THE NEXT WEATHER MAKER. CURRENTLY...THE COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL MO SOUTHWARD THROUGH WESTERN AR WITH THE BULK OF THE RAIN SHOWERS EAST OF THAT LINE. TONIGHT...THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND ALL OF THE ASSOCIATED SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BE MOVING OUR WAY. WITH THE CURRENT LEADING EDGE OF THE PRECIP ALMOST TO THE MS RIVER...IT LOOKS AS THOUGH THE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL SHOULD REACH WESTERN MIDDLE TN AROUND 7 PM. QPF RETURNS ARE SOMEWHAT COPIOUS WITH THIS UPCOMING RAIN EVENT AS THE SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT IS NOT EXPECTED TO REACH THE MID STATE UNTIL MIDDAY SUNDAY. THUS...FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MUCH OF SUNDAY... WE WILL SEE THAT THE RAINFALL WILL BE HEAVY AT TIMES. THEN AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY TURN COLDER. ALL THE MODELS ARE IN LINE WITH DEVELOPING AND DEEPENING AN UPPER LOW WITH THE TRACK GENERALLY BEING ACROSS NORTHERN AL NE THROUGH EASTERN TN TUESDAY MORNING. A REVIEW OF THE SOUNDING FCSTS SHOW THAT THE BULK OF THE PRECIP TUESDAY MORNING WILL BE SNOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN..CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLATEAU AREA. FURTHER WEST...MORE IN THE WAY OF A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW IS EXPECTED. EVEN BY UNDERCUTTING THE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE BY 3F ACROSS THE BOARD...A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW WEST OF THE PLATEAU SEEMS MORE LIKELY GIVEN THE EXPECTED SFC TEMPS. HOWEVER...TAKING INTO ACCOUNT THE SOUTHERLY TRACK...THE LOWS APPARENT INTENSITY...AND THE 850 MB TEMP FIELDS...THIS SITUATION WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED CAREFULLY. DYNAMICAL COOLING IS NOT PICKED UP VERY WELL WITH THE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE WHEN A CLOSED LOW IS INVOLVED. WE WILL WATCH CAREFULLY TO SEE IF THE MODELS TREND TOWARD A COLDER AND SNOWIER SCENARIO IN UPCOMING RUNS. OTHERWISE...WITH THE HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL...IT STILL LOOKS AS THOUGH THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL WILL OCCUR ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FROPA LATE TONIGHT AND ON SUNDAY. BASED ON THE GFS..EURO...AND NAM SOLUTIONS... THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON...TOTAL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAINFALL IS INDICATED. UP TO AN ADDITIONAL INCH (LIQ PRECIP) IS POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY WITH THE REMAINDER OF THE SYSTEM. NO FLOOD WATCH WILL BE ISSUED ATTM. INSTEAD...I WILL REISSUE THE ESF AND MAKE ANY CHANGES IF NEEDED. THE PRECIPITATION WILL END TUESDAY NIGHT BUT PERHAPS A FEW FLURRIES WILL LINGER ACROSS THE PLATEAU EARLY WEDNESDAY. SUNNY AND COOL WEATHER WILL ROUND OUT THE WORKWEEK. VERSUS THE MEX GUIDANCE...WILL UNDERCUT TEMPS...GENERALLY IN THE FIRST HALF OF THE EXTENDED. && .OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && 01
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN 522 AM CST SAT NOV 26 2011 TNZ005>011-022>034-056>066-075-077>080-093>095-271130- STEWART-MONTGOMERY-ROBERTSON-SUMNER-MACON-CLAY-PICKETT-BENTON- HOUSTON-HUMPHREYS-DICKSON-CHEATHAM-DAVIDSON-WILSON-TROUSDALE- SMITH-JACKSON-PUTNAM-OVERTON-FENTRESS-PERRY-HICKMAN-LEWIS- WILLIAMSON-MAURY-MARSHALL-RUTHERFORD-CANNON-DE KALB-WHITE- CUMBERLAND-BEDFORD-COFFEE-WARREN-GRUNDY-VAN BUREN-WAYNE-LAWRENCE- GILES- 522 AM CST SAT NOV 26 2011 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR MIDDLE TENNESSEE. .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP FROM WEST TO EAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES. BY LATE TONIGHT...SOME HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL DEVELOP WEST OF INTERSTATE 65. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY... HEAVY SHOWERS WILL OCCUR SUNDAY...SUNDAY NIGHT...AND INTO EARLY MONDAY AS A COLD FRONT PASSES AND A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPS OVER THE REGION. RAINFALL AMOUNTS FROM 2 TO 3 INCHES WILL BE COMMON...WITH LOCALLY UP TO 4 INCHES. LOCALIZED FLOODING IS POSSIBLE. LOCATIONS MOST SUBJECT TO FLOODING INCLUDE SMALL STREAMS...LOW LYING AREAS...AND PLACES WITH POOR DRAINAGE. THE MAJOR RIVERS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO FLOOD. COLDER AIR WILL COME IN WITH THIS SLOW MOVING STORM SYSTEM. THIS COULD CAUSE SOME WET SNOW TO MIX WITH THE RAIN AT TIMES FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. ALTHOUGH UNLIKELY...MINOR ACCUMULATIONS COULD OCCUR...MAINLY LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. .SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT... SPOTTERS AND LOCAL EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NASHVILLE. 13
The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
7 flood. Local standard time, as filed.
Ten roads were closed across the county due to high water.
Media reported several roads were closed due to flooding across the county.
Sheriffs office reported water was over a bridge roadway in Doc Wyatt Hollow.
White County Department of Highways reported Milligan Road, Petty Cove Road, Flat Rock Road, and Lost Creek Roads were all closed due to high water.
Several creeks were near bankfull with a couple of water covered roadways in and around Hilham.
Delk Creek Road was closed off due to high water overflowing from a nearby stream.
Water was completely covering Spring Creek Road in Rickman.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Tennessee in 2011Every state in 2011This day in weather historyWarnings in Tennessee, November 2011
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 349933, 349644, 349646, 349648, 349649, 349653, 349655.