A modified arctic airmass spread southward over the state.
Every event with a place to put it; 2 filed by county or forecast zone are drawn at its center, in a lighter ring. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS TBW wrote it up.
A modified arctic airmass spread southward over the state.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Tampa Bay, FL wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jan 28, 8:31 PM EST, 6 hours 29 minutes earlier.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
831 PM EST SUN JAN 28 2007
.SYNOPSIS...BAND OF STRATOCUMULUS CONTINUES EDGING THROUGH THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ZONES...AND SHOULD DISSIPATE OR COMPLETE ITS
PASSAGE THROUGH THE LAND AREAS BEFORE MIDNIGHT. FOR NOW...GIVEN
THE CLOUD COVER AND INITIAL POST FRONTAL AIR MASS...TEMPERATURES
REMAIN IN THE 50S WITH DEW POINTS IN THE 40S TO AROUND 50. WINDS
HAVE TEMPORARILY SUBSIDED TO 10 MPH OR LESS FROM THE NORTHWEST.
THE MAIN ISSUE IS THE TRUE MODIFIED ARCTIC AIR MASS WHICH IS
STEADILY MOVING THROUGH NORTH FLORIDA.
&&
.DISCUSSION...THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT SHOULD MOVE INTO LEVY
COUNTY BY MIDNIGHT...REACH HERNANDO/PASCO/SUMTER COUNTY BY 3
AM...AND CLEAR THE TAMPA BAY/LAKELAND AREA JUST BEFORE
DAYBREAK...OR AROUND 6 AM. THE FRONT IS LARGELY INDICATED BY A
SHARP DEW POINT DROP AND A SURGE IN GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS. FOR
EXAMPLE...DOTHAN ALABAMA HAS SEE DEW POINTS FALL FROM 28 TO 15 IN
THREE HOURS. AS THE FRONT TIPS OVER WINDS SHOULD BECOME MORE
NORTHERLY AT NOTABLE (10 TO 15 MPH) SPEEDS FOR NIGHTTIME/EARLY
MORNING...AND TEENS TO MID 20S DEW POINTS SHOULD QUICKLY SPREAD
SOUTHWARD WITH THEM.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD ALSO DROP STEADILY AND REACH FORECAST
MINIMUMS. HOWEVER...GIVEN UPSTREAM READINGS STILL IN THE MID AND
UPPER 30S IN CENTRAL AND NORTH ALABAMA AND GEORGIA...FORESEE
PERHAPS TOUCHING 32 IN NORTHERN LEVY AND MID 30S ELSEWHERE ACROSS
THE COUNTY...NEGATING THE NEED FOR A FREEZE WARNING TONIGHT.
AS FOR WIND CHILL...THE CURRENT COUNTY CONFIGURATION SHOULD WORK
OUT FOR THE MOST PART. 18Z NAM 3-HOUR 2 METER TEMPERATURES AND
DEWPOINTS SUGGEST THE WIND CHILLS WILL ARRIVE IN THE TAMPA
BAY/LAKELAND AREA RIGHT AROUND DAYBREAK (6-7 AM) BUT GIVEN THE
STRENGTH OF THE COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH 9
AM AS TEMPERATURES MAY BOTTOM OUT AT 8 AM WITH A SLOW RISE THROUGH
MID MORNING. HARDEE COUNTY IS A FENCE-SITTER...BUT SEE NO REASON
TO ADJUST GIVEN THE CLOSE PROXIMITY.
IN THE 25 WIND CHILL ZONE (NATURE COAST)...UNLIKE TYPICAL EVENTS
WHERE WINDS CRASH AND CHILL VALUES REMAIN CLOSER TO 30...FORESEE A
CLOSER CALL TONIGHT AS ADVECTION DOMINATES. 34 DEGREES WITH 9
KNOTS OF WIND GETS US A WCI OF 26...AND THIS MIGHT BE COMMON IN
NORTHERN SUMTER/NORTHEAST CITRUS AS WELL AS LEVY.
IN SHORT...NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE IN A LIGHTER WIND/WARMER SCENARIO
TO DROP AND WILL DEFER DECISION TO NEXT SHIFT. WILL UPDATE THE
WEATHER STATEMENT (WWUS KTBW) TO FINE TUNE.
REMAINDER OF FORECAST IS ON TRACK...INCLUDING RETAINING HIGH SURF.
THOUGH SEAS OFFSHORE BUOYS RUNNING AT 7 FEET...THE NEXT WIND SURGE
SHOULD KEEP THEM OR BRIEFLY INCREASE THEM TOWARD 9 FEET OVERNIGHT
INTO MONDAY MORNING WHICH WILL KEEP 4 TO 5 FOOT SURF GOING.
&&
.AVIATION...SOME COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS STILL STREAMING IN FROM THE
GULF....WITH SOME SITES REPORTING HIGH END MVFR CEILINGS. SATELLITE
TRENDS AND MODEL CROSS SECTIONS INDICATE THESE CLOUDS SHOULD BREAK
UP OVER THE TAF SITES AROUND MIDNIGHT. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS AFTER
THAT AND THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
&&
.MARINE...CURRENT WINDS/SEAS AT THE EDGE OF ADVISORY CONDITIONS
IN THE GULF AND AROUND OR EVEN JUST BELOW CAUTION IN THE BAY. THIS
WILL CHANGE AFTER THE REINFORCING FRONT ARRIVES...WHEN NORTH WINDS
MAY GUST TOWARD 25 KNOTS IN THE GULF AND COULD GET CLOSE TO
ADVISORY CONDITIONS IN THE BAY AS WELL. A GRADUAL DECREASE IN WIND
AND SEAS IS EXPECTED MONDAY AS THE GRADIENT SLOWLY RELAXES.
&&
.CLIMATE...DESPITE THE POTENTIAL FOR BROKEN TO OVERCAST HIGH
CLOUDS MONDAY NIGHT...SUFFICIENT LOW AND MID LEVEL DRYING AND CALM
WINDS SHOULD STILL BE ENOUGH TO BRING TEMPERATURES TO THEIR LOWEST
LEVELS SINCE VALENTINES DAY 2006. A PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY WITH BRIEF COMPARATIVE DATA BETWEEN THE
FORECAST FOR THIS TUESDAY WITH FEBRUARY 14 2006.
&&
.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR
CITRUS-HERNANDO-HILLSBOROUGH-LEVY-PASCO-POLK-SUMTER.
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 10 AM TO 6 PM EST MONDAY FOR CHARLOTTE-
CITRUS-DE SOTO-HARDEE-HERNANDO-HIGHLANDS-HILLSBOROUGH-LEE-
LEVY-MANATEE-PASCO-PINELLAS-POLK-SARASOTA-SUMTER.
FIRE WEATHER WATCH TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR CHARLOTTE-CITRUS-DE
SOTO-HARDEE-HERNANDO-HIGHLANDS-HILLSBOROUGH-LEE-LEVY-
MANATEE-PASCO-POLK-SARASOTA-SUMTER.
WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 9 AM EST MONDAY FOR CITRUS-
HARDEE-HERNANDO-HILLSBOROUGH-LEVY-MANATEE-PASCO-POLK-SUMTER.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST MONDAY FOR CHARLOTTE-
HILLSBOROUGH-LEE-MANATEE-PASCO-PINELLAS-SARASOTA.
GULF WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST MONDAY FOR
BONITA BEACH TO SUWANNEE RIVER OUT 60 NM.
SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR TAMPA
BAY WATERS.
&&
SHORT TERM UPDATE...88/BSG
AVIATION UPDATE...55/RJSHAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL 538 AM EST SUN JAN 28 2007 FLZ039-042-043-048-281645- LEVY-CITRUS-SUMTER-HERNANDO- 538 AM EST SUN JAN 28 2007 ..COLDER TEMPERATURES MONDAY MORNING WITH A FREEZE LIKELY TUESDAY MORNING... ...HAZARDOUS BOATING CONDITIONS TODAY... THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA. .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT GUSTY WEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MID MORNING BEFORE BECOMING NORTHWEST AND DIMINISHING DURING THE AFTERNOON. NEAR THE COAST AND OVER THE GULF. SEAS WILL BUILD TODAY TO 8 FEET BEFORE SLOWLY SUBSIDING DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE TOWARD THE FLORIDA PENINSULA TODAY... AND BECOME REINFORCED WITH EVEN COLDER AIR MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY. EARLY MONDAY...THE COMBINATION OF TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 30S WITH NORTH WINDS AT 5 MPH WILL PRODUCE WIND CHILL VALUES BETWEEN 25 AND 30. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY ON TUESDAY...THE HEART OF THE COLD AIR WILL REACH THE NATURE COAST. CURRENT INDICATIONS SUGGEST A WIDESPREAD FREEZE BY TUESDAY MORNING WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING TO BETWEEN 25 AND 30. HOWEVER...ABUNDANT HIGH CLOUDS MAY CAP OUTGOING RADIATION AND KEEP READINGS FROM DROPPING MUCH BELOW FREEZING. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...NO ACTIVATION REQUIRED. FLZ049>052-055>057-060-061-281645- PASCO-PINELLAS-HILLSBOROUGH-POLK-MANATEE-HARDEE-HIGHLANDS- SARASOTA-DE SOTO- 538 AM EST SUN JAN 28 2007 ...ROUGH AND DANGEROUS SURF WITH RIP CURRENTS TODAY AT THE GULF BEACHES... ...COLDER TEMPERATURES MONDAY MORNING WITH A POSSIBLE FREEZE INLAND TUESDAY MORNING... ...HAZARDOUS BOATING CONDITIONS TODAY... THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA. .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT GUSTY WEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MID MORNING BEFORE BECOMING NORTHWEST AND DIMINISHING DURING THE AFTERNOON. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 8 FEET THROUGH LATE MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON AND SLOWLY SUBSIDING DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE TOWARD THE FLORIDA PENINSULA TODAY... AND BECOME REINFORCED WITH EVEN COLDER AIR MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY. EARLY MONDAY...THE COMBINATION OF TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S WITH NORTH WINDS AT 10 MPH WILL PRODUCE WIND CHILL VALUES BETWEEN 30 AND 35. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY ON TUESDAY...THE HEART OF THE COLD AIR WILL REACH THE TAMPA BAY AND SARASOTA BRADENTON AREA. CURRENT INDICATIONS SUGGEST A POSSIBLE FREEZE BY TUESDAY MORNING WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING TO OR JUST BELOW 32 FOR SEVERAL HOURS OVER RURAL...SHELTERED...AND PREFERRED SUBURBAN LOCATIONS. HOWEVER...ABUNDANT HIGH CLOUDS MAY CAP OUTGOING RADIATION AND KEEP READINGS FROM DROPPING AS LOW AS FORECAST. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...NO ACTIVATION REQUIRED FLZ062-065-281645- CHARLOTTE-LEE- 538 AM EST SUN JAN 28 2007 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST FLORIDA. ...ROUGH AND DANGEROUS SURF WITH RIP CURRENTS BY DAYBREAK AT THE GULF BEACHES... ...COLDER TEMPERATURES MONDAY AND TUESDAY MORNING WITH LOW WIND CHILL... ...HAZARDOUSOUS BOATING CONDITIONS LATER TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY... .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT GUSTY WEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MID MORNING BEFORE BECOMING NORTHWEST AND DIMINISHING DURING THE AFTERNOON. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 8 FEET THROUGH LATE MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON IN THE WATERS BEYOND 20 NM OUT...SLOWLY SUBSIDING OVERNIGHT. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE TOWARD THE FLORIDA PENINSULA TODAY... AND BECOME REINFORCED WITH EVEN COLDER AIR MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY. EARLY MONDAY...THE COMBINATION OF TEMPERATURES BETWEEN 40 AND 45 WITH NORTH WINDS AT 10 TO 15 MPH WILL PRODUCE WIND CHILL VALUES BETWEEN 35 AND 40. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY ON TUESDAY...THE HEART OF THE COLD AIR WILL REACH SOUTHWEST FLORIDA. CURRENT INDICATIONS SUGGEST TEMPERATURES FALLING TO BETWEEN 35 AND 40 WITH WIND CHILL VALUES AS LOW AS 30 IN A FEW SPOTS. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...NO ACTIVATION REQUIRED.
The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
6 cold/wind chill, 1 frost/freeze. Local standard time, as filed.
The temperature dropped to 30 degrees fahrenheit 6 miles southeast of Chiefland with freezing temperatures lasting more than 3 hours. The wind chill dropped to 25 degrees.
The wind chill 3 miles southeast of Inverness dropped to 28 degrees.
The wind chill at the FAWN site in Brooksville dropped to 25 degrees.
The wind chill at The Villages dropped to 26 degrees.
The wind chill likely dropped below 35 degrees in the eastern part of the county.
The wind chill dropped to 29 in Dover and 31 at the Tampa International Airport.
The wind chill dropped to 29 degrees in Winter Haven and 31 degrees in both Lakeland and Bartow.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Florida in 2007Every state in 2007This day in weather historyWarnings in Florida, January 2007
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 12569, 12570, 12571, 12575, 12572, 12573, 12574.