High Wind in North Dakota, May 22, 2001

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
310 AM CDT TUE MAY 22 2001

ENORMOUS CUTOFF LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL CONTINUE TO
DOMINATE THE WEATHER OVER NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH 120 HOURS.

IN THE NEAR TERM...CLOUDS OVER EASTERN MONTANA AND WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA EARLY THIS MORNING ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK SHORT WAVE
SLIDING DOWN THE WESTERN U.S. RIDGE. THE ETA MEAN RH INDICATES THAT
THESE CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE BY NOON TODAY AS THE SHORTWAVE EXITS TO
THE SOUTH OF THE STATE. THE FORECAST SOUNDING INDICATES THAT SOME
FLAT CU WILL FORM MIDDAY AT AROUND 7000 FEET. WITH A NEAR ADIABATIC
LAPSE RATE...STRONG UNIDIRECTIONAL WINDS ALOFT...IT SHOULD BE
ANOTHER WINDY DAY AT THE SURFACE...REQUIRING A WIND ADVISORY.

A SPOKE OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY REVOLVING WITH THE LOW BEGINS ITS
ADVANCE ON EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA TONIGHT WITH INCREASING DEEP LAYER
CLOUDS AND THE THREAT OF SOME PRECIPITATION IN THE GRAND FORKS CWA.
THE WESTERN END OF THE LOBE SWINGS ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
TOMORROW...BUT THE DEEP LAYER CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION APPEAR TO
REMAIN JUST EAST OF OUR FORECAST AREA.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT BRINGS THE APPROACH OF A SECOND LOBE OF
VORTICITY...AND ALTHOUGH IT PUSHES CLOUDS AND LIGHT PRECIP FURTHER
WEST THAN THE PREVIOUS IMPULSE...IT LOOKS LIKE THE AREA WEST OF A
BISMARCK/MINOT LINE WILL BE SPARED. ALSO...IF ANY PRECIP FALLS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT EAST OF BISMARCK...IT WOULD BE RAIN...BASED ON THE
DEPTH OF THE SUPRA-FREEZING WET BULB LAYER.

ALL THE WHILE OUR MID LEVEL HEIGHTS AREA RISING ALONG WITH THE
THICKNESS SO SOME WARMING SHOULD TAKE PLACE.

MOS TEMPERATURES LOOK REASONABLE SO WILL NOT DEVIATE FROM THEM TOO
MUCH.

.BIS...WIND ADVISORY...TODAY...WEST AND CENTRAL
RSL