Hail and Damaging Winds in Virginia, May 22, 2001

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD, VA
1110 AM EDT TUE MAY 22 2001

QUIET AND SLOWLY HEATING UP OVR MOST OF CWA THIS MORNING. ENTIRE CWA
IN WARM SECTOR AND LO LVL S-SW FLO INCREASING.  CAPES ATTM RUNNING
3000+ IN AKQ-LYH QUADRANT AND LI'S -3.  CDFNT ROUGHLY ALONG TN/VA
LINE AND A GOOD BIT UNTAPPED ENERGY SITTING OVR SRN ZNS. SOME
QUESTION STILL AS TO HOW MUCH SVR POTENTIAL EXISTS AND OVR HOW MUCH
OF CWA.  WOULD BE MORE CONCERNED IF TEMPS WERE A BIT WARMER
INCREASING LAPSE RATES BUT WE ARE STILL SVRL HRS AWAY FM MAX
HEATING.   WND PROFILES ARE UNIDIRECTIONAL WITH SPEED SHEAR THRU
LOWEST 2KM SUGGESTING MUTIL-CELL STORMS.  FOR UPDATE WL MENTION SVR
OVR WRN HALF OF ZONES AND ADD WNDS&HAIL.  MADE SLIGHT POP CUT FOR
1ST PD GIVEN SLOWER PRECIP ADVANCE.  MOST TEMPS LOOKING OK.

FCSTID = 71
SBY   78  60  75  54 /  40  60  10   0
OXB   80  60  72  54 /  40  60  10   0
ECG   83  64  78  58 /  50  60  10   0
ORF   80  64  76  60 /  40  60  10   0
PHF   80  60  75  55 /  40  60  10   0
AKQ   84  62  78  56 /  50  60  10   0
RIC   81  58  77  54 /  50  60   0   0
FVX   81  58  77  54 /  50  60   0   0

.AKQ...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.

SCHUMANN

MDZ021>025-NCZ012>017-030>032-102-VAZ048-049-060>100-222345-

SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1140 AM EDT TUE MAY 22 2001

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...

THERE IS A RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHEAST AND CENTRAL VIRGINIA...NORTHEAST
NORTH CAROLINA...AND THE EASTERN SHORE. DAMAGING WIND GUSTS UP TO 60
MPH...AND LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS WITH THE
STRONGEST STORMS. SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED LATE THIS
AFTERNOON OR EVENING.

AT THIS TIME THE FAVORED LOCATION FOR FIRST THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
WILL BE ALONG AND WEST OF I95 FROM RICHMOND SOUTH INTO NORTH
CAROLINA.  EVENTUALLY THE THUNDERSTORM THREAT WILL PROGRESS EASTWARD
INTO THE EVENING.  NO WATCHES ARE IN EFFECT AT THIS TIME FOR THESE
LOCATION...BUT A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS LIKELY BEFORE 4 PM FOR
SOUTH CENTRAL VI4RGINIA AND NORTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO AND OTHER LOCAL MEDIA FOR FURTHER
DETAILS OR UPDATES.

SCHUMANN

MDZ021>025-VAZ048-049-060>094-221730-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
155 PM EDT TUE MAY 22 2001

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 274 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 800 PM EDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS...ALL SOUTH CENTRAL VIRGINIA EXCEPT THE
TIDEWATER REGION AND LOWER EASTERN SHORE.

AT THIS TIME THE FAVORED LOCATION FOR FIRST THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
WILL BE ALONG AND WEST OF I95 FROM RICHMOND SOUTH TO THE NORTH
CAROLINA AND VIRGINIA BORDER.  EVENTUALLY THE THUNDERSTORM THREAT
WILL PROGRESS EASTWARD INTO THE EVENING AND ADDITIONAL WATCHES MAY
BE ISSUED.

REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE
FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS WHICH CONTAIN DAMAGING WIND IN
EXCESS OF 55 MPH AND HAIL 3/4 INCHE OR GREATER IN DIAMETER IN AND
CLOSE TO THE WATCH AREA. FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND VERY HEAVY RAIN MAY
ALSO ACCOMPANY ANY THUNDERSTORMS.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR UPDATES ON THE DEVELOPMENT OF
THESE STORMS.

SCHUMANN