Alert archive / Arkansas / Tornado Watches in 2025

Tornado Watch 270

May 16, 20254 states

The Storm Prediction Center issued this tornado watch at May 16, 2025, 6:51 PM CDT for 4 states. It was in force for 9 hr.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: May 16, 2025, 6:51 PM CDT (23:51 UTC)
Expired: May 17, 2025, 4:00 AM CDT
In force: 9 hr
Issued by: the Storm Prediction Center
Largest hail expected: 3 in
Strongest gust expected: 65 kt

All 81 counties

Clay County, AR, Cleburne County, AR, Conway County, AR, Craighead County, AR, Crittenden County, AR, Cross County, AR, Faulkner County, AR, Fulton County, AR, Garland County, AR, Greene County, AR, Independence County, AR, Izard County, AR, Jackson County, AR, Lawrence County, AR, Lee County, AR, Lonoke County, AR, Mississippi County, AR, Monroe County, AR, Montgomery County, AR, Perry County, AR, Phillips County, AR, Poinsett County, AR, Polk County, AR, Pope County, AR, Prairie County, AR, Pulaski County, AR, Randolph County, AR, Saline County, AR, Scott County, AR, Sharp County, AR, St. Francis County, AR, Stone County, AR, Van Buren County, AR, White County, AR, Woodruff County, AR, Yell County, AR, Dunklin County, MO, Pemiscot County, MO, Alcorn County, MS, Benton County, MS, Calhoun County, MS, Chickasaw County, MS, Coahoma County, MS, DeSoto County, MS, Itawamba County, MS, Lafayette County, MS, Lee County, MS, Marshall County, MS, Monroe County, MS, Panola County, MS, Pontotoc County, MS, Prentiss County, MS, Quitman County, MS, Tallahatchie County, MS, Tate County, MS, Tippah County, MS, Tishomingo County, MS, Tunica County, MS, Union County, MS, Yalobusha County, MS, Benton County, TN, Carroll County, TN, Chester County, TN, Crockett County, TN, Decatur County, TN, Dyer County, TN, Fayette County, TN, Gibson County, TN, Hardeman County, TN, Hardin County, TN, Haywood County, TN, Henderson County, TN, Henry County, TN, Lake County, TN, Lauderdale County, TN, Madison County, TN, McNairy County, TN, Obion County, TN, Shelby County, TN, Tipton County, TN, Weakley County, TN

The radar

The Memphis radar (KNQA), 111 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 23:54 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

What SPC expected

The probabilities SPC published with the watch, for the watch area over its life.

Two or more tornadoes: 70%
One or more EF2 to EF5 tornadoes: 50%
Ten or more severe wind reports: 70%
One or more gusts of 65 knots or more: 50%
Ten or more severe hail reports: 70%
One or more hailstones of 2 inches or more: 60%
Six or more combined severe hail and wind reports: 95%

Warnings issued inside it

40 tornado, severe thunderstorm and flash flood warnings for its counties while it was in force.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
May 16, 6:52 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	LZK	Fulton, Lawrence, Randolph, Sharp	38 min
May 16, 7:07 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	LZK	Logan, Scott, Yell	38 min
May 16, 7:11 PM CDT	Tornado Warning	LZK	Randolph	19 min
May 16, 7:13 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	LZK	Logan, Perry, Scott, Yell	47 min
May 16, 7:14 PM CDT	Tornado Warning	MEG	Clay, Greene	36 min
May 16, 7:24 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	LZK	Fulton, Izard, Lawrence, Randolph, Sharp	66 min
May 16, 7:27 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	MEG	Clay	33 min
May 16, 7:45 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	MEG	Clay, Greene	45 min
May 16, 7:57 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	LZK	Conway, Perry, Pulaski, Saline, Yell	25 min
May 16, 7:58 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	MEG	Clay	47 min
May 16, 8:23 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	LZK	Lawrence, Randolph	29 min
May 16, 8:25 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning Considerable damage threat	MEG	Clay, Greene	50 min
May 16, 8:26 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	LZK	Faulkner, Perry, Pulaski, Saline	49 min
May 16, 8:32 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	MEG	Pemiscot	43 min
May 16, 8:41 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	LZK	Garland, Montgomery, Perry, Saline, Scott, Yell	49 min
May 16, 9:05 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning Considerable damage threat	MEG	Henry, Weakley	40 min
May 16, 9:20 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	LZK	Montgomery, Polk	40 min
May 16, 9:25 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	LZK	Garland, Hot Spring, Saline	50 min
May 16, 9:34 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	LZK	Faulkner, Lonoke, Prairie, Pulaski	37 min
May 16, 9:37 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	MEG	Henry, Obion, Weakley	38 min
May 16, 9:49 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning Considerable damage threat	MEG	Benton, Henry	41 min
May 16, 9:53 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	LZK	Clark, Garland, Hot Spring, Montgomery	52 min
May 16, 10:07 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	LZK	Arkansas, Jefferson, Lonoke, Monroe, Prairie	43 min
May 16, 10:15 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	MEG	Dyer, Gibson, Henry, Lake, Obion, Weakley	45 min
May 16, 10:30 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	MEG	Benton, Henry	32 min
May 16, 10:41 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	LZK	Arkansas, Monroe, Prairie	34 min
May 16, 10:43 PM CDT	Tornado Warning	LZK	Monroe	13 min
May 16, 10:57 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	MEG	Lee, Phillips	63 min
May 16, 11:08 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning Considerable damage threat	LZK	Arkansas, Monroe	37 min
May 16, 11:14 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	LZK	Grant, Jefferson, Saline	46 min
May 16, 11:23 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	LZK	Arkansas, Jefferson, Lincoln, Monroe	41 min
May 16, 11:35 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	MEG	Carroll, Crockett, Dyer, Gibson, Weakley	55 min
May 16, 11:39 PM CDT	Tornado Warning	LZK	Arkansas, Monroe	15 min
May 16, 11:54 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	MEG	Phillips	66 min
May 16, 11:57 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	MEG	Phillips	63 min
May 17, 12:45 AM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	MEG	Calhoun, Lafayette, Panola, Quitman, Tallahatchie, Yalobusha	45 min
May 17, 1:16 AM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning Considerable damage threat	MEG	Calhoun, Chickasaw, Lafayette, Lee, Pontotoc, Prentiss and 2 more	44 min
May 17, 1:52 AM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning Considerable damage threat	MEG	Chickasaw, Itawamba, Lee, Monroe, Pontotoc, Union	53 min
May 17, 2:12 AM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	MEG	Tallahatchie, Yalobusha	48 min
May 17, 2:48 AM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	MEG	Calhoun, Chickasaw, Yalobusha	42 min

Discussions around it

SPC mesoscale discussions over the same counties from four hours before the watch to its end.

The nearest sounding before it

Little Rock, AR (KLZK), launched 12:00Z, 11.9 hours before the alert went out and 129 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 2582 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -44 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 697 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 65 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 189 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 329 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 4.2
Supercell composite: 17.2

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
May 16, 1:46 AM CDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Arkansas, Clay, Cleburne, Conway, Craighead, Crittenden and 33 more	119 min
May 16, 2:28 AM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Watch	SPC	Baxter, Clay, Cleburne, Conway, Craighead, Faulkner and 15 more	9 hr
May 16, 5:32 AM CDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Baxter, Clay, Cleburne, Craighead, Faulkner, Fulton and 12 more	58 min
May 16, 6:35 AM CDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Clay, Cleburne, Craighead, Greene, Independence, Izard and 7 more	115 min
May 16, 7:40 AM CDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Clay, Craighead, Greene, Jackson, Mississippi, Poinsett	2 hr
May 16, 9:11 AM CDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Baxter, Benton, Boone, Carroll, Crawford, Franklin and 12 more	3 hr
May 16, 11:41 AM CDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Baxter, Boone, Carroll, Clay, Cleburne, Crawford and 19 more	3 hr
May 16, 11:58 AM CDT	Tornado Watch	SPC	Baxter, Benton, Boone, Carroll, Cleburne, Conway and 22 more	8 hr
May 16, 2:08 PM CDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Baxter, Clay, Cleburne, Craighead, Fulton, Greene and 12 more	2 hr
May 16, 3:10 PM CDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Bradley, Calhoun, Clark, Cleveland, Columbia, Dallas and 25 more	2 hr
May 16, 6:23 PM CDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Baxter, Clay, Cleburne, Craighead, Crittenden, Cross and 18 more	2 hr
May 16, 2:59 PM CDT	Tornado Watch	SPC	Mississippi, New Madrid, Scott, Stoddard	8 hr
May 16, 6:56 PM CDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Scott	2 hr
May 16, 9:26 AM CDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Carter, Claiborne, Hancock, Hawkins, Johnson, Sullivan and 1 more	2 hr
May 16, 10:10 AM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Watch	SPC	Anderson, Campbell, Carter, Claiborne, Grainger, Greene and 10 more	6 hr
May 16, 11:06 AM CDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Clay, Fentress, Jackson, Macon, Morgan, Overton and 5 more	2 hr
May 16, 11:59 AM CDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Claiborne, Hancock, Hawkins, Johnson, Sullivan	2 hr
May 16, 5:06 PM CDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Montgomery, Robertson, Sumner	114 min

Nearby

Tornado Watches in Arkansas, 2025 Tornado Watches in Mississippi, 2025 Tornado Watches in Tennessee, 2025 Every tornado watch in 2025

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.