Alert archive / Missouri / Mesoscale Discussions in 2025

Mesoscale Discussion 813

May 16, 202525 counties in Arkansas; 7 counties in Illinois; 56 counties in Missouri

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at May 16, 2025, 11:41 AM CDT for 25 counties in Arkansas; 7 counties in Illinois; 56 counties in Missouri. It was in force for 3 hr.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
May 16, 2025, 11:41 AM CDT (16:41 UTC)
Expired
May 16, 2025, 2:15 PM CDT
In force
3 hr
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center
Concerning
Severe potential...watch likely
Chance of a watch
95%
All 88 counties

Baxter County, AR, Boone County, AR, Carroll County, AR, Clay County, AR, Cleburne County, AR, Crawford County, AR, Franklin County, AR, Fulton County, AR, Greene County, AR, Independence County, AR, Izard County, AR, Johnson County, AR, Lawrence County, AR, Logan County, AR, Madison County, AR, Marion County, AR, Newton County, AR, Pope County, AR, Randolph County, AR, Searcy County, AR, Sebastian County, AR, Sharp County, AR, Stone County, AR, Van Buren County, AR, Washington County, AR, Calhoun County, IL, Greene County, IL, Jersey County, IL, Madison County, IL, Monroe County, IL, Randolph County, IL, Saint Clair County, IL, Audrain County, MO, Barry County, MO, Bollinger County, MO, Boone County, MO, Butler County, MO, Callaway County, MO, Camden County, MO, Cape Girardeau County, MO, Carter County, MO, Christian County, MO, City of Saint Louis, MO, Cole County, MO, Crawford County, MO, Dallas County, MO, Dent County, MO, Douglas County, MO, Dunklin County, MO, Franklin County, MO, Gasconade County, MO, Greene County, MO, Howell County, MO, Iron County, MO, Jefferson County, MO, Laclede County, MO, Lincoln County, MO, Madison County, MO, Maries County, MO, Miller County, MO, Moniteau County, MO, Montgomery County, MO, Morgan County, MO, New Madrid County, MO, Oregon County, MO, Osage County, MO, Ozark County, MO, Perry County, MO, Phelps County, MO, Pike County, MO, Polk County, MO, Pulaski County, MO, Reynolds County, MO, Ripley County, MO, Saint Charles County, MO, Saint Francois County, MO, Saint Louis County, MO, Sainte Genevieve County, MO, Shannon County, MO, Stoddard County, MO, Stone County, MO, Taney County, MO, Texas County, MO, Warren County, MO, Washington County, MO, Wayne County, MO, Webster County, MO, Wright County, MO

The radar

The Springfield radar (KSGF), 145 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 16:40 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The watches that followed

Watches SPC issued over any of the same counties within four hours of this discussion.

The nearest sounding before it

Springfield, MO (KSGF), launched 12:00Z, 4.7 hours before the alert went out and 185 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Springfield, MO at 12:00Z on 2025-05-16Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 0 joules per kilogram.LCL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Springfield, MO at 12:00Z on 2025-05-16The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 187 square meters per square second.1939587897117136Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
0 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
No buoyant parcel
Mixed-layer LCL
3112 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
73 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
187 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
227 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

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SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
May 16, 1:46 AM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCArkansas, Clay, Cleburne, Conway, Craighead, Crittenden and 33 more119 min
May 16, 2:28 AM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCBaxter, Clay, Cleburne, Conway, Craighead, Faulkner and 15 more9 hr
May 16, 5:32 AM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBaxter, Clay, Cleburne, Craighead, Faulkner, Fulton and 12 more58 min
May 16, 6:35 AM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCClay, Cleburne, Craighead, Greene, Independence, Izard and 7 more115 min
May 16, 7:40 AM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCClay, Craighead, Greene, Jackson, Mississippi, Poinsett2 hr
May 16, 9:11 AM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBaxter, Benton, Boone, Carroll, Crawford, Franklin and 12 more3 hr
May 16, 11:58 AM CDTTornado WatchSPCBaxter, Benton, Boone, Carroll, Cleburne, Conway and 22 more8 hr
May 16, 2:08 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBaxter, Clay, Cleburne, Craighead, Fulton, Greene and 12 more2 hr
May 16, 3:10 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBradley, Calhoun, Clark, Cleveland, Columbia, Dallas and 25 more2 hr
May 16, 6:23 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBaxter, Clay, Cleburne, Craighead, Crittenden, Cross and 18 more2 hr
May 16, 6:51 PM CDTTornado WatchSPCClay, Cleburne, Conway, Craighead, Crittenden, Cross and 30 more9 hr
May 15, 7:36 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCChampaign, Christian, DeWitt, Douglas, DuPage, Ford and 14 more54 min
May 16, 2:59 PM CDTTornado WatchSPCAlexander, Champaign, Christian, Clark, Clay, Coles and 34 more8 hr
May 16, 5:06 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAlexander, Clay, Edwards, Franklin, Gallatin, Hamilton and 14 more114 min
May 16, 5:47 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCFord, Grundy, Iroquois, Kankakee, Livingston3 hr
May 16, 6:56 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAlexander, Clark, Clay, Crawford, Edwards, Franklin and 17 more2 hr

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in Missouri, 2025Mesoscale Discussions in Arkansas, 2025Mesoscale Discussions in Illinois, 2025Every mesoscale discussion in 2025

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.