Alert archive / Arkansas / Mesoscale Discussions in 2025

Mesoscale Discussion 809

May 16, 202518 counties in Arkansas; 15 counties in Missouri; 4 counties in Oklahoma

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at May 16, 2025, 9:11 AM CDT for 18 counties in Arkansas; 15 counties in Missouri; 4 counties in Oklahoma. It was in force for 3 hr.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
May 16, 2025, 9:11 AM CDT (14:11 UTC)
Expired
May 16, 2025, 11:45 AM CDT
In force
3 hr
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center
Concerning
Severe potential...watch possible
Chance of a watch
60%
All 37 counties

Baxter County, AR, Benton County, AR, Boone County, AR, Carroll County, AR, Crawford County, AR, Franklin County, AR, Fulton County, AR, Independence County, AR, Izard County, AR, Johnson County, AR, Madison County, AR, Marion County, AR, Newton County, AR, Searcy County, AR, Sharp County, AR, Stone County, AR, Van Buren County, AR, Washington County, AR, Barry County, MO, Christian County, MO, Douglas County, MO, Greene County, MO, Howell County, MO, Lawrence County, MO, McDonald County, MO, Newton County, MO, Oregon County, MO, Ozark County, MO, Stone County, MO, Taney County, MO, Texas County, MO, Webster County, MO, Wright County, MO, Adair County, OK, Cherokee County, OK, Delaware County, OK, Sequoyah County, OK

The radar

The Springfield radar (KSGF), 100 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 14:15 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The watches that followed

Watches SPC issued over any of the same counties within four hours of this discussion.

The nearest sounding before it

Springfield, MO (KSGF), launched 12:00Z, 2.2 hours before the alert went out and 81 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Springfield, MO at 12:00Z on 2025-05-16Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 0 joules per kilogram.LCL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Springfield, MO at 12:00Z on 2025-05-16The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 187 square meters per square second.1939587897117136Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
0 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
No buoyant parcel
Mixed-layer LCL
3112 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
73 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
187 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
227 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
May 16, 1:46 AM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCArkansas, Clay, Cleburne, Conway, Craighead, Crittenden and 33 more119 min
May 16, 2:28 AM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCBaxter, Clay, Cleburne, Conway, Craighead, Faulkner and 15 more9 hr
May 16, 5:32 AM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBaxter, Clay, Cleburne, Craighead, Faulkner, Fulton and 12 more58 min
May 16, 6:35 AM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCClay, Cleburne, Craighead, Greene, Independence, Izard and 7 more115 min
May 16, 7:40 AM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCClay, Craighead, Greene, Jackson, Mississippi, Poinsett2 hr
May 16, 11:41 AM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBaxter, Boone, Carroll, Clay, Cleburne, Crawford and 19 more3 hr
May 16, 11:58 AM CDTTornado WatchSPCBaxter, Benton, Boone, Carroll, Cleburne, Conway and 22 more8 hr
May 16, 2:08 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBaxter, Clay, Cleburne, Craighead, Fulton, Greene and 12 more2 hr
May 16, 3:10 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBradley, Calhoun, Clark, Cleveland, Columbia, Dallas and 25 more2 hr
May 16, 6:23 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBaxter, Clay, Cleburne, Craighead, Crittenden, Cross and 18 more2 hr
May 16, 6:51 PM CDTTornado WatchSPCClay, Cleburne, Conway, Craighead, Crittenden, Cross and 30 more9 hr
May 16, 2:59 PM CDTTornado WatchSPCMississippi, New Madrid, Scott, Stoddard8 hr
May 16, 6:56 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCScott2 hr

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in Arkansas, 2025Mesoscale Discussions in Missouri, 2025Mesoscale Discussions in Oklahoma, 2025Every mesoscale discussion in 2025

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.