Alert archive / Missouri / Tornado Watches in 2025

Tornado Watch 262

May 16, 202528 counties in Arkansas; 16 counties in Illinois; 48 counties in Missouri

The Storm Prediction Center issued this tornado watch at May 16, 2025, 11:58 AM CDT for 28 counties in Arkansas; 16 counties in Illinois; 48 counties in Missouri. It was in force for 8 hr.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: May 16, 2025, 11:58 AM CDT (16:58 UTC)
Expired: May 16, 2025, 7:49 PM CDT
In force: 8 hr
Issued by: the Storm Prediction Center
Largest hail expected: 4 in
Strongest gust expected: 60 kt

All 92 counties

Baxter County, AR, Benton County, AR, Boone County, AR, Carroll County, AR, Cleburne County, AR, Conway County, AR, Crawford County, AR, Franklin County, AR, Fulton County, AR, Independence County, AR, Izard County, AR, Jackson County, AR, Johnson County, AR, Lawrence County, AR, Logan County, AR, Madison County, AR, Marion County, AR, Newton County, AR, Pope County, AR, Randolph County, AR, Scott County, AR, Searcy County, AR, Sebastian County, AR, Sharp County, AR, Stone County, AR, Van Buren County, AR, Washington County, AR, Yell County, AR, Bond County, IL, Calhoun County, IL, Clinton County, IL, Fayette County, IL, Greene County, IL, Jackson County, IL, Jersey County, IL, Macoupin County, IL, Madison County, IL, Marion County, IL, Monroe County, IL, Montgomery County, IL, Perry County, IL, Randolph County, IL, Saint Clair County, IL, Washington County, IL, Audrain County, MO, Bollinger County, MO, Butler County, MO, Callaway County, MO, Camden County, MO, Cape Girardeau County, MO, Carter County, MO, Christian County, MO, City of Saint Louis, MO, Cole County, MO, Crawford County, MO, Dallas County, MO, Dent County, MO, Douglas County, MO, Franklin County, MO, Gasconade County, MO, Greene County, MO, Howell County, MO, Iron County, MO, Jefferson County, MO, Laclede County, MO, Lincoln County, MO, Madison County, MO, Maries County, MO, Miller County, MO, Montgomery County, MO, Oregon County, MO, Osage County, MO, Ozark County, MO, Perry County, MO, Phelps County, MO, Pike County, MO, Pulaski County, MO, Reynolds County, MO, Ripley County, MO, Saint Charles County, MO, Saint Francois County, MO, Saint Louis County, MO, Sainte Genevieve County, MO, Shannon County, MO, Stone County, MO, Taney County, MO, Texas County, MO, Warren County, MO, Washington County, MO, Wayne County, MO, Webster County, MO, Wright County, MO

The radar

The Springfield radar (KSGF), 98 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 16:57 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

What SPC expected

The probabilities SPC published with the watch, for the watch area over its life.

Two or more tornadoes: 60%
One or more EF2 to EF5 tornadoes: 40%
Ten or more severe wind reports: 60%
One or more gusts of 65 knots or more: 20%
Ten or more severe hail reports: 80%
One or more hailstones of 2 inches or more: 80%
Six or more combined severe hail and wind reports: 95%

Warnings issued inside it

95 tornado, severe thunderstorm and flash flood warnings for its counties while it was in force.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
May 16, 12:11 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	SGF	Greene, Webster, Wright	49 min
May 16, 12:15 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	LZK	Johnson, Newton, Pope, Searcy, Van Buren	45 min
May 16, 12:21 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	SGF	Christian, Douglas, Taney, Webster, Wright	39 min
May 16, 12:41 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	SGF	Laclede, Pulaski	49 min
May 16, 12:46 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	SGF	Laclede, Phelps, Pulaski, Texas, Wright	44 min
May 16, 12:49 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning Destructive damage threat	LZK	Conway, Pope, Searcy, Van Buren	41 min
May 16, 12:55 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning Destructive damage threat	SGF	Douglas, Howell, Texas, Wright	50 min
May 16, 1:06 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning Considerable damage threat	SGF	Texas, Wright	24 min
May 16, 1:13 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning Destructive damage threat	SGF	Dent, Maries, Phelps, Pulaski	47 min
May 16, 1:17 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	LSX	Audrain, Callaway, Lincoln, Montgomery, Pike, Warren	73 min
May 16, 1:18 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	LZK	Cleburne, Stone, Van Buren	42 min
May 16, 1:19 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning Considerable damage threat	SGF	Dent, Shannon, Texas	41 min
May 16, 1:23 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	LSX	Franklin, Gasconade, Lincoln, Saint Charles, Warren	52 min
May 16, 1:24 PM CDT	Tornado Warning	SGF	Shannon, Texas	36 min
May 16, 1:25 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	SGF	Dent, Phelps, Texas	50 min
May 16, 1:28 PM CDT	Tornado Warning	SGF	Howell, Oregon, Shannon, Texas	32 min
May 16, 1:28 PM CDT	Tornado Warning	SGF	Phelps	32 min
May 16, 1:35 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	LSX	Crawford, Franklin, Gasconade, Washington	40 min
May 16, 1:48 PM CDT	Tornado Warning	LSX	Crawford, Washington	34 min
May 16, 1:51 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	LZK	Baxter, Fulton	24 min
May 16, 1:51 PM CDT	Tornado Warning	SGF	Shannon	24 min
May 16, 1:52 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	SGF	Howell, Ozark	38 min
May 16, 1:54 PM CDT	Tornado Warning	SGF	Shannon	36 min
May 16, 1:57 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	LSX	Franklin	18 min
May 16, 2:00 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	SGF	Maries, Phelps	12 min
May 16, 2:02 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning Considerable damage threat	LSX	Calhoun	43 min
May 16, 2:02 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	LSX	Iron, Reynolds	43 min
May 16, 2:05 PM CDT	Tornado Warning	PAH	Carter, Wayne	55 min
May 16, 2:17 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	LSX	Franklin, Saint Charles, Warren	28 min
May 16, 2:17 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	SGF	Phelps, Pulaski	43 min
May 16, 2:21 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	SGF	Howell, Oregon, Shannon	39 min
May 16, 2:25 PM CDT	Tornado Warning	LSX	Iron, Reynolds	35 min
May 16, 2:26 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	LSX	Calhoun, Greene, Jersey, Macoupin, Pike	49 min
May 16, 2:34 PM CDT	Tornado Warning	LSX	Madison, Saint Clair	41 min
May 16, 2:41 PM CDT	Tornado Warning	PAH	Bollinger, Carter, Stoddard, Wayne	64 min
May 16, 2:43 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning Destructive damage threat	SGF	Shannon	32 min
May 16, 2:44 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning Considerable damage threat	LSX	Reynolds	9 min
May 16, 2:45 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning Destructive damage threat	PAH	Carter	30 min
May 16, 2:47 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	SGF	Dent, Phelps	28 min
May 16, 2:52 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	LSX	Clinton, Monroe, Randolph, Saint Clair, Washington	30 min
May 16, 2:53 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	SGF	Shannon, Texas	37 min
May 16, 2:55 PM CDT	Tornado Warning	LSX	Iron, Madison	50 min
May 16, 2:56 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	SGF	Phelps, Texas	12 min
May 16, 2:57 PM CDT	Tornado Warning	SGF	Dent, Phelps	33 min
May 16, 2:58 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	LSX	Iron, Madison, Reynolds	37 min
May 16, 2:59 PM CDT	Tornado Warning	PAH	Bollinger, Wayne	31 min
May 16, 3:01 PM CDT	Tornado Warning	LSX	Crawford, Washington	34 min
May 16, 3:07 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	LSX	Macoupin, Montgomery	38 min
May 16, 3:07 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning Considerable damage threat	SGF	Shannon	23 min
May 16, 3:14 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	LSX	Bond, Clinton, Fayette, Marion	36 min
May 16, 3:18 PM CDT	Tornado Warning	LSX	Bond, Clinton, Fayette, Marion	33 min
May 16, 3:21 PM CDT	Tornado Warning	PAH	Bollinger, Cape Girardeau, Scott, Stoddard, Wayne	54 min
May 16, 3:29 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	LSX	Washington	31 min
May 16, 3:29 PM CDT	Tornado Warning	PAH	Bollinger	33 min
May 16, 3:44 PM CDT	Tornado Warning	LSX	Fayette, Marion	14 min
May 16, 3:45 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	LSX	Jefferson, Sainte Genevieve, Saint Francois, Washington	45 min
May 16, 3:49 PM CDT	Tornado Warning	PAH	Bollinger, Cape Girardeau	41 min
May 16, 4:01 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	PAH	Cape Girardeau	20 min
May 16, 4:14 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	LSX	Iron, Reynolds, Saint Francois, Washington	46 min
May 16, 4:15 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	LSX	Marion, Monroe, Randolph, Saint Clair, Washington	24 min
May 16, 4:16 PM CDT	Tornado Warning	PAH	Cape Girardeau	17 min
May 16, 4:23 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	PAH	Franklin, Perry	17 min
May 16, 4:47 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	LSX	Randolph	43 min
May 16, 4:50 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	SGF	Shannon	10 min
May 16, 5:07 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	LSX	Reynolds	23 min
May 16, 5:09 PM CDT	Tornado Warning	LSX	Sainte Genevieve	9 min
May 16, 5:09 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	PAH	Bollinger, Carter, Wayne	51 min
May 16, 5:09 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	SGF	Howell, Oregon	51 min
May 16, 5:12 PM CDT	Tornado Warning	PAH	Perry	23 min
May 16, 5:20 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	LSX	Fayette	22 min
May 16, 5:24 PM CDT	Tornado Warning	PAH	Perry	36 min
May 16, 5:27 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	PAH	Carter, Ripley	48 min
May 16, 5:33 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	PAH	Jackson	42 min
May 16, 5:39 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	LZK	Fulton, Randolph, Sharp	36 min
May 16, 5:45 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	PAH	Bollinger, Cape Girardeau, Stoddard, Wayne	45 min
May 16, 5:49 PM CDT	Tornado Warning	PAH	Jackson	41 min
May 16, 5:55 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	SGF	Oregon	50 min
May 16, 5:56 PM CDT	Tornado Warning	PAH	Bollinger, Stoddard, Wayne	25 min
May 16, 5:59 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning Considerable damage threat	PAH	Butler, Carter, Ripley	46 min
May 16, 6:07 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning Considerable damage threat	PAH	Franklin, Jackson, Williamson	38 min
May 16, 6:08 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	LZK	Fulton, Randolph, Sharp	37 min
May 16, 6:08 PM CDT	Tornado Warning	PAH	Jackson, Williamson	42 min
May 16, 6:15 PM CDT	Tornado Warning	PAH	Bollinger, Cape Girardeau, Scott, Stoddard	45 min
May 16, 6:17 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	PAH	Butler, Ripley	43 min
May 16, 6:32 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	LZK	Fulton, Randolph, Sharp	43 min
May 16, 6:35 PM CDT	Tornado Warning	PAH	Butler, New Madrid, Stoddard	40 min
May 16, 6:39 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	PAH	Franklin, Jackson, Williamson	33 min
May 16, 6:40 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning Destructive damage threat	PAH	Butler, New Madrid, Stoddard	50 min
May 16, 6:52 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	LZK	Fulton, Lawrence, Randolph, Sharp	38 min
May 16, 6:58 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	PAH	Butler, Ripley	47 min
May 16, 7:07 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	LZK	Logan, Scott, Yell	38 min
May 16, 7:11 PM CDT	Tornado Warning	LZK	Randolph	19 min
May 16, 7:13 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	LZK	Logan, Perry, Scott, Yell	47 min
May 16, 7:20 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	PAH	Cape Girardeau, Scott, Stoddard	40 min
May 16, 7:24 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	LZK	Fulton, Izard, Lawrence, Randolph, Sharp	66 min

Discussions around it

SPC mesoscale discussions over the same counties from four hours before the watch to its end.

The nearest sounding before it

Springfield, MO (KSGF), launched 12:00Z, 5.0 hours before the alert went out and 123 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 0 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: No buoyant parcel
Mixed-layer LCL: 3112 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 73 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 187 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 227 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
May 16, 1:46 AM CDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Arkansas, Clay, Cleburne, Conway, Craighead, Crittenden and 33 more	119 min
May 16, 2:28 AM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Watch	SPC	Baxter, Clay, Cleburne, Conway, Craighead, Faulkner and 15 more	9 hr
May 16, 5:32 AM CDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Baxter, Clay, Cleburne, Craighead, Faulkner, Fulton and 12 more	58 min
May 16, 6:35 AM CDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Clay, Cleburne, Craighead, Greene, Independence, Izard and 7 more	115 min
May 16, 7:40 AM CDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Clay, Craighead, Greene, Jackson, Mississippi, Poinsett	2 hr
May 16, 9:11 AM CDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Baxter, Benton, Boone, Carroll, Crawford, Franklin and 12 more	3 hr
May 16, 11:41 AM CDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Baxter, Boone, Carroll, Clay, Cleburne, Crawford and 19 more	3 hr
May 16, 2:08 PM CDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Baxter, Clay, Cleburne, Craighead, Fulton, Greene and 12 more	2 hr
May 16, 3:10 PM CDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Bradley, Calhoun, Clark, Cleveland, Columbia, Dallas and 25 more	2 hr
May 16, 6:23 PM CDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Baxter, Clay, Cleburne, Craighead, Crittenden, Cross and 18 more	2 hr
May 16, 6:51 PM CDT	Tornado Watch	SPC	Clay, Cleburne, Conway, Craighead, Crittenden, Cross and 30 more	9 hr
May 15, 7:36 PM CDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Champaign, Christian, DeWitt, Douglas, DuPage, Ford and 14 more	54 min
May 16, 2:59 PM CDT	Tornado Watch	SPC	Alexander, Champaign, Christian, Clark, Clay, Coles and 34 more	8 hr
May 16, 5:06 PM CDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Alexander, Clay, Edwards, Franklin, Gallatin, Hamilton and 14 more	114 min
May 16, 5:47 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Watch	SPC	Ford, Grundy, Iroquois, Kankakee, Livingston	3 hr
May 16, 6:56 PM CDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Alexander, Clark, Clay, Crawford, Edwards, Franklin and 17 more	2 hr

Nearby

Tornado Watches in Missouri, 2025 Tornado Watches in Arkansas, 2025 Tornado Watches in Illinois, 2025 Every tornado watch in 2025

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.