Tornado Warning 124, NWS Paducah, KY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
1149 AM CDT Fri May 16 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A significant dangerous severe weather outbreak is expected
  this afternoon into this evening. All severe hazards are in
  play...including strong/intense, and potentially long tracked
  tornadoes, widespread and potentially significant damaging
  wind, and large and damaging hail. The inherent risk of
  flooding from very heavy rain will be more localized.

- More stormy weather returns early next week with severe
  weather potential again Tuesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1148 AM CDT Fri May 16 2025

As the atmosphere recovers from early day thunderstorms, all
indications are that by mid afternoon, we will again be primed
and ready for severe storms to develop. Our thermodynamics
remain charged, with 3500-4500 J/KG2 expected ahead of the
approaching system. It brings with it the right entrance region
of an upper level jet, while the low levels start cranking
too...deep layer shear remains largely 50-60 KTS thru the
event. The incoming CAM models all paint some discrete
development as early as 19 or 20Z, with more elements becoming
linear with time thereafter. There is some play between about
half of the modeling suggesting an area of low pressure
developing with a warm and cold sector on the mesoscale or
smaller, while the other half are more discrete with perhaps two
line segments moving across the area. STP still goes up to
about 7 and with such high CAPE and SRH that is 250-350 m2/s2 on
average, we're concerned at the high end potential for
significant tornaodes/damaging wind, not to mention the large
hail threat. Residual boundaries laid out already or in the pm
convective atmosphere may further complicate these layouts, but
it appears that regardless of that, or it even muting that
somewhat, we'll have an active and very dangerous afternoon-
evening to come. Ultimately we may see the convection line out
with intense wind gusts in excess of 70 mph as it sweeps across
the area by late evening. In addition to the aforementioned
hazards, we'll also see an inherent risk of flooding from very
heavy rain, but it should be more localized.

We get a short-lived pause thereafter, CWA-glancing activity
not withstanding, that carries us thru the first half of the
weekend, before the pattern turns more active the back half of
the weekend and leading into next week. That's when our next
best chance of strong storms comes in by/for Day5 (Tuesday), but
many elements will have to come together between now and then
for us to have higher confidence precision in the 15% blanket
SPC has overtop most of the PAH FA for now.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1148 AM CDT Fri May 16 2025

Developing/active convection will offer a potpourri of
restrictions to flight terminal forecasts this package,
particularly thru 06Z. Strong to potentially severe storms are
anticipated at all terminals during the afternoon and into the
evening hours, when most restrictions to CIGS/VSBYS will exist,
and hail and strong/storm gusty winds are included in the
forecast. After 06z, cold fropa should scour clouds out with a
look to returning Visual Flight Rules without exemptions
by/before Saturday.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.

&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Paducah KY
1117 AM CDT Fri May 16 2025

ILZ075>078-080>094-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ001>022-MOZ076-086-087-
100-107>112-114-171000-
Jefferson-Wayne IL-Edwards-Wabash-Perry IL-Franklin-Hamilton-
White-Jackson-Williamson-Saline-Gallatin-Union-Johnson-Pope-
Hardin-Alexander-Pulaski-Massac-Gibson-Pike-Posey-Vanderburgh-
Warrick-Spencer-Fulton-Hickman-Carlisle-Ballard-McCracken-Graves-
Livingston-Marshall-Calloway-Crittenden-Lyon-Trigg-Caldwell-
Union KY-Webster-Hopkins-Christian-Henderson-Daviess-McLean-
Muhlenberg-Todd-Perry MO-Bollinger-Cape Girardeau-Wayne MO-Carter-
Ripley-Butler-Stoddard-Scott-Mississippi-New Madrid-
1117 AM CDT Fri May 16 2025 /1217 PM EDT Fri May 16 2025/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of southern
Illinois, southwest Indiana, western Kentucky, and southeast
Missouri.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

A significant and dangerous severe weather outbreak is still
anticipated this afternoon and evening. Supercells are expected
to form into an intense line of storms late in the afternoon and
early this evening. Strong tornadoes, widespread and locally
intense damaging winds, and very large hail, will be possible.
Very heavy rain may cause localized flooding. Frequent deadly
lightning will accompany strong storms as well.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday

Thunderstorms return to the forecast early next week, with Tuesday
offering the next best chance for strong to potentially severe
storms.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is anticipated later today into tonight.

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