Alert archive / Kentucky / Mesoscale Discussions in 2025

Mesoscale Discussion 810

May 16, 20255 states

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at May 16, 2025, 10:26 AM EDT for 5 states. It was in force for 2 hr.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
May 16, 2025, 10:26 AM EDT (14:26 UTC)
Expired
May 16, 2025, 12:30 PM EDT
In force
2 hr
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center
Concerning
Severe potential...severe thunderstorm watch likely
Chance of a watch
95%
All 78 counties

Bath County, KY, Bell County, KY, Breathitt County, KY, Clay County, KY, Elliott County, KY, Estill County, KY, Floyd County, KY, Harlan County, KY, Jackson County, KY, Johnson County, KY, Knott County, KY, Knox County, KY, Laurel County, KY, Lawrence County, KY, Lee County, KY, Leslie County, KY, Letcher County, KY, Magoffin County, KY, Martin County, KY, McCreary County, KY, Menifee County, KY, Montgomery County, KY, Morgan County, KY, Owsley County, KY, Perry County, KY, Pike County, KY, Powell County, KY, Rockcastle County, KY, Whitley County, KY, Wolfe County, KY, Alleghany County, NC, Ashe County, NC, Surry County, NC, Watauga County, NC, Wilkes County, NC, Yadkin County, NC, Carter County, TN, Claiborne County, TN, Hancock County, TN, Hawkins County, TN, Johnson County, TN, Sullivan County, TN, Washington County, TN, Bland County, VA, Buchanan County, VA, Carroll County, VA, City of Bristol, VA, City of Galax, VA, City of Norton, VA, City of Radford, VA, City of Roanoke, VA, City of Salem, VA, Craig County, VA, Dickenson County, VA, Floyd County, VA, Giles County, VA, Grayson County, VA, Lee County, VA, Montgomery County, VA, Patrick County, VA, Pulaski County, VA, Roanoke County, VA, Russell County, VA, Scott County, VA, Smyth County, VA, Tazewell County, VA, Washington County, VA, Wise County, VA, Wythe County, VA, Boone County, WV, Logan County, WV, McDowell County, WV, Mercer County, WV, Mingo County, WV, Monroe County, WV, Raleigh County, WV, Summers County, WV, Wyoming County, WV

The radar

The Jackson,KY radar (KJKL), 114 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 14:28 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The watches that followed

Watches SPC issued over any of the same counties within four hours of this discussion.

The nearest sounding before it

Roanoke, VA (KRNK), launched 12:00Z, 2.4 hours before the alert went out and 232 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Roanoke, VA at 12:00Z on 2025-05-16Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 486 joules per kilogram.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Roanoke, VA at 12:00Z on 2025-05-16The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 180 square meters per square second.19395878Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
486 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-63 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
789 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
42 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
180 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
232 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.4
Supercell composite
3.6

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

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SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
May 16, 2:46 AM EDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBallard, Caldwell, Calloway, Carlisle, Christian, Crittenden and 17 more119 min
May 16, 3:28 AM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCAdair, Allen, Anderson, Ballard, Barren, Bourbon and 65 more9 hr
May 16, 6:32 AM EDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBallard, Breckinridge, Butler, Caldwell, Calloway, Carlisle and 24 more58 min
May 16, 7:35 AM EDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAdair, Allen, Anderson, Ballard, Barren, Bath and 96 more115 min
May 16, 8:40 AM EDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAnderson, Ballard, Boyle, Breckinridge, Bullitt, Butler and 36 more2 hr
May 16, 11:10 AM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCBath, Bell, Boyd, Breathitt, Carter, Clay and 29 more6 hr
May 16, 12:06 PM EDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAdair, Allen, Casey, Clinton, Cumberland, Laurel and 10 more2 hr
May 16, 12:59 PM EDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBell, Clay, Floyd, Harlan, Knott, Knox and 8 more2 hr
May 16, 3:08 PM EDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBallard, Carlisle, Fulton, Graves, Hickman, Livingston and 2 more2 hr
May 16, 3:59 PM EDTTornado WatchSPCBallard, Breckinridge, Bullitt, Butler, Caldwell, Calloway and 31 more8 hr
May 16, 6:06 PM EDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAllen, Ballard, Barren, Breckinridge, Bullitt, Butler and 43 more114 min
May 16, 6:51 PM EDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAdair, Allen, Anderson, Barren, Bath, Boone and 73 more114 min
May 16, 7:17 PM EDTTornado WatchSPCAdair, Allen, Anderson, Barren, Bath, Bell and 77 more7 hr
May 16, 7:56 PM EDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAnderson, Ballard, Barren, Breckinridge, Bullitt, Butler and 40 more2 hr
May 16, 2:35 PM EDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCCaswell, Granville, Person, Rockingham, Stokes, Vance and 1 more2 hr
May 16, 3:28 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCAlamance, Beaufort, Bertie, Camden, Caswell, Chowan and 26 more5 hr
May 16, 6:53 PM EDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBertie, Camden, Chowan, Currituck, Gates, Halifax and 6 more97 min
May 16, 7:23 PM EDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCCrockett, Dyer, Fayette, Gibson, Hardeman, Haywood and 6 more2 hr
May 16, 7:51 PM EDTTornado WatchSPCBenton, Carroll, Chester, Crockett, Decatur, Dyer and 15 more9 hr
May 16, 1:41 PM EDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCArlington, Clarke, Fairfax, Fauquier, Frederick, Loudoun and 12 more3 hr
May 16, 2:32 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCArlington, Clarke, Culpeper, Fairfax, Fauquier, Frederick and 14 more5 hr
May 16, 4:14 PM EDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCArlington, Clarke, Fairfax, Fauquier, Loudoun, Prince William and 7 more2 hr
May 16, 6:13 PM EDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAccomack92 min

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in Kentucky, 2025Mesoscale Discussions in Virginia, 2025Mesoscale Discussions in West Virginia, 2025Every mesoscale discussion in 2025

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.