Tornado Warning 102, NWS Little Rock, AR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
614 PM CDT Fri May 16 2025

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Saturday night)
Issued at 318 PM CDT Fri May 16 2025

Latest data from KLZK radar indicate that the isolated, yet very
well organized storms that affected north central portions of the
forecast area have dissipated or moved out of the forecast area.

Very unstable conditions exist area wide, with MLCape values of >=
3500 j/kg noted. Moderate effective shear, along with the
pronounced instability, are sufficient to support well defined
supercellular convection.

18z KLZK upper air sounding indicates a strong capping inversion
around 850 mb. This feature has strengthened substantially since
12z.

Recent CAM guidance suggests forcing along a weak cold frontal
boundary approaching western parts of the state during the late
afternoon and evening hours will be sufficient to overcome the
convective inhibition. The resulting convective activity would then
spread eastward. Southwesterly surface flow indicates that the
overall tornadic potential may be low with this activity.

On Saturday, moderately unstable conditions will develop during the
afternoon hours. The previously mentioned surface boundary will be
in the vicinity to promote strong convection during the afternoon
and evening hours.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday Night through next Friday)
Issued at 318 PM CDT Fri May 16 2025

Unsettled conditions will prevail until late Tuesday, when a strong
cold front moves southeast through the mid south. Dry and relatively
cooler conditions are expected during the second half of this
forecast period.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 612 PM CDT Fri May 16 2025

CAM guidance has had some difficulty in recent runs regarding
strength of convective inhibition across the forecast area. Still
expected some southward increase in convective coverage through
08z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     64  89  65  84 /  30  10  60  60
Camden AR         67  90  68  89 /  70  30  50  20
Harrison AR       58  84  61  81 /   0   0  60  60
Hot Springs AR    64  90  68  87 /  40  20  50  40
Little Rock   AR  67  91  69  87 /  60  10  50  50
Monticello AR     71  92  71  90 /  70  10  40  30
Mount Ida AR      63  90  67  86 /  20  30  50  30
Mountain Home AR  58  84  61  81 /   0   0  60  70
Newport AR        64  89  68  85 /  50   0  60  60
Pine Bluff AR     67  91  70  89 /  70  10  50  30
Russellville AR   62  90  67  85 /  20  10  50  50
Searcy AR         64  90  68  85 /  50  10  60  50
Stuttgart AR      69  90  71  86 /  70  10  50  40

&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

SHORT TERM...55
LONG TERM....55
AVIATION...55

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
840 AM CDT Fri May 16 2025

ARZ004>008-014>017-024-025-031>034-039-042>047-052>057-062>069-
103-112-113-121>123-130-137-138-140-141-203-212-213-221>223-230-
237-238-240-241-313-340-341-171000-
Marion-Baxter-Fulton-Sharp-Randolph-Stone-Izard-Independence-
Lawrence-Cleburne-Jackson-Conway-Faulkner-White-Woodruff-Perry-
Garland-Saline-Pulaski-Lonoke-Prairie-Monroe-Pike-Clark-
Hot Spring-Grant-Jefferson-Arkansas-Dallas-Cleveland-Lincoln-
Desha-Ouachita-Calhoun-Bradley-Drew-Boone County Except Southwest-
Newton County Higher Elevations-Searcy County Lower Elevations-
Southern Johnson County-Southern Pope County-
Southeast Van Buren County-Western and Northern Logan County-
Northern Scott County-Northwest Yell County-
Polk County Lower Elevations-
Central and Eastern Montgomery County-
Boone County Higher Elevations-Newton County Lower Elevations-
Northwest Searcy County Higher Elevations-
Johnson County Higher Elevations-Pope County Higher Elevations-
Van Buren County Higher Elevations-
Southern and Eastern Logan County-
Central and Southern Scott County-Yell Excluding Northwest-
Northern Polk County Higher Elevations-
Northern Montgomery County Higher Elevations-
Eastern, Central, and Southern Searcy County Higher Elevations-
Southeast Polk County Higher Elevations-
Southwest Montgomery County Higher Elevations-
840 AM CDT Fri May 16 2025

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for a Large Part of Arkansas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

More showers and thunderstorms will develop late this morning
through this afternoon and evening. Severe weather will be possible
with this activity across much of the state. However...the best
potential for seeing severe thunderstorms will be across the
northeast third of the area. Very large hail up to or greater than
baseball size...and damaging winds possibly in excess of 70 mph will
be the main threats. A few tornadoes will also be
possible...especially across northeast Arkansas. While widespread
heavy rainfall isn't expected...locally heavy rainfall could result
in some flash flooding.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday

More severe weather will be possible on Saturday as activity from
Oklahoma and Texas moves into southwestern sections of the state
Saturday afternoon/evening. Very large hail and some damaging
winds will be the primary threats expected with the strongest
thunderstorms. Locally heavy rainfall will also be possible.

The potential for organized severe weather does decrease for
Sunday into Monday...but thunderstorms will remain possible. A few
thunderstorms could be strong to severe as well on Sunday and
Monday. However...the potential for more organized severe weather
looks to return for Tuesday as a new stronger storm system moves
across the region.

.Spotter Information Statement...

Spotter activation may be needed through tonight.

&&

Visit NWS Little Rock on the web. Go to http://weather.gov/lzk.

55/mid shift

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
950 PM CDT Fri May 16 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0943 PM     Hail             2 SW Lake Desoto        34.66N 93.03W
05/16/2025  E2.00 Inch       Garland            AR   Public

&&

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
958 PM CDT Fri May 16 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0954 PM     Hail             1 E Lake Cortez         34.68N 92.95W
05/16/2025  E1.00 Inch       Saline             AR   Public

&&

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
1025 PM CDT Fri May 16 2025

ARZ043>045-055-170400-
Pulaski AR-Grant AR-Lonoke AR-Saline AR-
1025 PM CDT Fri May 16 2025

...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of west central Lonoke,
northern Grant, southeastern Saline and southeastern Pulaski Counties
through 1100 PM CDT
...

At 1024 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from Southwest Little Rock to near Haskell. Movement
was east at 35 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Alexander...                      Otter Creek...
Higgins...                        College Station...
Southwest Little Rock...          Bauxite...
Ironton...                        Quapaw Quarter...
Vimy Ridge...                     Estes...
Woodson...                        Parkers-Iron Springs...
War Memorial Stadium...           Bevis Corner...
Bryant...                         Hensley...
Sardis...                         East End...
Willow Beach...                   Toltec...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 200 AM CDT for central
Arkansas.

&&

LAT...LON 3476 9180 3447 9225 3454 9275 3475 9239
TIME...MOT...LOC 0324Z 270DEG 33KT 3468 9239 3455 9263

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

67

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
1039 PM CDT Fri May 16 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1034 PM     Hail             Rockwell                34.46N 93.14W
05/16/2025  M0.75 Inch       Garland            AR   Public

&&

JCG

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