Severe Thunderstorm Warning 111, NWS Jackson, MS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jackson MS
217 PM CDT Sat Mar 15 2025

...New DISCUSSION...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 216 PM CDT Sat Mar 15 2025

Tonight: Tornado outbreak is currently in progress for the eastern
half of our CWA. Strong to violent long-track tornadoes will remain
possible through the afternoon. Large hail and damaging winds will
also be possible.

Mid afternoon satellite imagery/RAP analysis showed the circulation
around a potent shortwave/trough over the southern Plains. Mid
afternoon surface analysis had a cold front dropping south across
our delta region and northeast Louisiana parishes. As the shortwave
trough continues shifting east the remainder of this afternoon and
evening, the cold front will shift east as well and bring an end to
the severe weather outbreak. Although the potential for severe
weather will end in east Mississippi early this evening, there will
be a low chance of light showers across the northern half of our CWA
until well after midnight as the axis of the shortwave trough swings
across our CWA. In the wake of the cold front and shortwave axis,
temperatures will bottom out much cooler than recent morning but
still a few degrees above normal in the upper 40s to lower 50s.
/22/

Through next Sunday: A ridging pattern will establish itself over
the region, bringing with it a welcome calm benign weather regime
for the work week. A weak cold front is expected to make its way
through the area Wednesday night, which will drop our high
temperatures from a balmy 75F to low-mid 60s to finish out the
work week. Low temperatures will also take a nosedive from the mid
50s Wednesday morning, to low-mid 30s Thursday and Friday
morning. At this time we are projected lows for the late week to
stay just above freezing however continual monitoring will be
needed for any minor adjustment that could drop our temperatures
another few degrees, which will put some sites (particularly
eastern ones) just below freezing. In conjunction with the
aforementioned front traversing the CWA, there is a chance for
some light scattered showers Wednesday night through Thursday
morning for zones east of I-20. Projected totals remains less than
half an inch for the entire period so impacts from this event
should remain minimal. Starting Friday afternoon, expect
temperatures and general conditions to rebound back to seasonal
norms./OAJ/

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 117 PM CDT Sat Mar 15 2025

Poor flying conditions are expected until around 7pm (00Z on the
16th) throughout the CWA. There is a large severe weather system
producing damaging winds of over 60kt and hail over 2in moving
through the CWA. As such vis/cigs will range from LIFR to VFR
intermittently while the system passes through. This system should
clear western sites by 18Z, central sites by 21Z, and finally
eastern sites by 00Z. Once this system clears the area in question,
expect benign weather and mostly VFR conditions with ceilings
ranging in the 3-4kft range for the remainder of the TAF period./OAJ/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       50  63  39  68 /  20   0   0   0
Meridian      51  66  38  67 /  60   0   0   0
Vicksburg     49  63  39  69 /  20   0   0   0
Hattiesburg   53  70  40  70 /  30   0   0   0
Natchez       49  64  39  70 /  10   0   0   0
Greenville    48  59  39  65 /  60   0   0   0
Greenwood     49  60  37  67 /  50  10   0   0

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for MSZ030>033-037>039-
     043>046-048>052-054>058-062>066-072>074.

LA...None.
AR...None.
&&

22/OAJ/

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Jackson MS
1229 PM CDT Sat Mar 15 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0940 AM     Flash Flood      1 WNW Cleveland         33.75N 90.75W
03/15/2025                   Bolivar            MS   Emergency Mngr

            Emergency management reported multiple roads
            flooded, west of Cleveland MS.

&&

CR

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Jackson MS
113 PM CDT Sat Mar 15 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1253 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     5 WSW Pelahatchie       32.30N 89.89W
03/15/2025                   Rankin             MS   Law Enforcement

            Local law enforcement reported several trees
            down near Collier Cv in Rankin MS.

&&

CR

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Jackson MS
130 PM CDT Sat Mar 15 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0122 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     4 W Camden              32.78N 89.90W
03/15/2025                   Madison            MS   Law Enforcement

            Law enforcement reported a tree down on
            Loring Rd. Both lanes of traffic are
            blocked.

&&

CR

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Jackson MS
149 PM CDT Sat Mar 15 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0125 PM     Flash Flood      Grenada                 33.77N 89.81W
03/15/2025                   Grenada            MS   Law Enforcement

            Law enforcement reported multiple roads and
            streets flooded across Grenada MS.

&&

CR

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Jackson MS
154 PM CDT Sat Mar 15 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0144 PM     Flash Flood      Duck Hill               33.63N 89.71W
03/15/2025                   Montgomery         MS   Law Enforcement

            Law enforcement reported multiple
            streets/roads flooded across the Duck Hill
            city limit.

&&

CR

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Jackson MS
223 PM CDT Sat Mar 15 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0205 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     1 S Taylorsville        31.82N 89.43W
03/15/2025                   Smith              MS   Public

            Report of extensive tree damage along HWY-37
            and damage to the roof of a structure.

&&

KP